"Azerbaijan's 'Revenge' in Karabakh could be a bargaining chip between Putin and Erdogan"
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  08 August 2022 - 13:44

Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Sochi. The context of the event was determined by the agreements reached in July at the trilateral talks in Tehran, where the leaders of Russia and Türkiye have agreed to develop cooperation not only in the Syrian settlement and the establishment of a "grain corridor," but also in other aspects of cooperation, especially in military-technical, trade and economic and energy spheres. In connection with the aggravation in Karabakh, the Kremlin assumed Russian and Turkish leaders could exchange views on this problem as well.

Caliber.Az together with political analysts considered some issues of Putin and Erdogan's meeting.

According to Ilhan Uzgel, a professor of international relations at Ankara University and a political analyst, the Turkish leader thus demonstrates to the West that he and Putin have friendly and trusting relations.

"Erdogan's success in organizing a grain deal with the United Nations and the meeting in Sochi are powerful signals for Türkiye's Western allies. He is still eager to show that he can make deals with Putin, convincing the US and the Biden administration that the Russian leader is his ally and friend. He may meet with Putin twice a month," the expert said.

At the same time, Uzgel expressed hope that the Sochi meeting will help Erdogan and Putin overcome their differences over the situation in Syria.

"The Turkish leader wants to launch a major offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces, which Ankara accuses of having ties with rebels inside Türkiye. The presidents already met in Tehran two weeks ago. It seems that Erdogan could not get what he wanted from Putin, namely permission for a military operation in northern Syria. Russia controls Syria's airspace, so Ankara needs Moscow's cooperation for the military operation," the Turkish political analyst said.

For his part, Zaur Gasimov, professor of history at the University of Bonn and an expert on Turkish-Russian relations, suggests that the recent meetings between the two leaders, which have been quite frequent, could become regular.

"The war in Ukraine has affected the current Turkish-Russian relations. Since Ankara takes a balanced approach to the Ukrainian conflict, the grain deal should lead to further deepening ties between Russia and Türkiye. Grain exports from Ukraine are a new phase for the region, and Türkiye, as an intermediary, plays quite a significant role in it. At the same time, the close ties between Ukraine and Türkiye and the aspect of non-adherence to the anti-Russian sanctions - contribute to a dynamic that is important for both Moscow and Ankara," said the political scientist.

Although Putin is wary of Türkiye's growing military presence in Syria, Gasimov stressed, the two leaders have experience in bridging differences.

"We can see that the sides are causing each other some discomfort, but they are also showing a very great willingness to discuss it with each other. This willingness to discuss and the growing list of common interests in the region means that frequent meetings between the two leaders could become regular," the professor suggested.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military and political analyst Mikhail Shereshevsky believes that the Karabakh case could also become the subject of conversation in Sochi between Putin and Erdogan.

"The Russian army units located in Karabakh, together with the Armenian military, are surrounded by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, which possess a large number of high-precision and heavy weapons.

Azerbaijan remains Türkiye's closest ally and politico-military partner, while Russia is Armenia's military partner and ally. Despite the fact that there are close economic ties between Moscow and Baku, not to mention the fact that this country is one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons, there are certain problems. On August 3, Azerbaijan conducted an anti-terrorist operation called "Revenge" against Armenian armed groups in Karabakh. And all this could also become a bargaining chip in Sochi between Putin and Erdogan," concluded Shereshevsky.

Caliber.Az