"If Armenia refuses, Baku either has to take control of the Lachin corridor or cut through the Zangazur corridor"
Farhad Mammadov's standpoint
POLITICS 08 August 2022 - 15:13
Farhad Mammadov, the political analyst and director of the South Caucasus Research Center, explained on his Telegram channel a number of points related to the Lachin corridor and at the same time assessed its role in future regional processes.
"Will the Lachin corridor become a simple road?! And how does this affect further processes? So, there is clarity on the issue of relocating the Russian peacekeeping contingent by the end of August.
The next question is: Will the new communication line remain a corridor under the control of the RPC or will an Azerbaijani checkpoint be established at the border?
Representatives of the Karabakh Armenian population noted in their statements that the operation regime will remain a corridor, i.e. under the full control of the RPC.
What options could there be?
First of all, we should note that Azerbaijan acts responsibly towards its commitments mentioned in the Tripartite Statement (to secure the Lachin corridor, hand over more than 1700 dead bodies, etc.). But in December in Brussels and in July in Baku, the President of Azerbaijan noted that the regime of exploitation of the Zangazur corridor should be the same as the Lachin corridor (only exploitation: entrance to the territory). And during the recent escalation, the Lachin corridor was functioning.
However, in the president's speech, the new communication is called a road, i.e. Armenia has the possibility to choose the form of exploitation of the Zangazur corridor (because the communication line passes conditionally through the territory of Armenia), and the form of exploitation of the communication line through the Lachin region of Azerbaijan will depend on this choice!
Pashinyan faces a choice: refusing the corridor logic in Zangazur, he will get the same refusal from the corridor logic in Lachin!
Taking into account that the Zangazur corridor is a condition of the Tripartite Statement, Azerbaijan will not drag it out any longer. The issue of the Zangazur corridor will be put forward the same way Baku put the issue with point 4 about the full withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Karabakh.
But how?
Pashinyan seemingly stated that he is ready to provide communication even tomorrow, but on what terms? If Armenia refuses, Baku has two choices: to take control of the Lachin corridor or to cut through the Zangazur corridor. In both cases, Russia's role is leveled. Please note, that Azerbaijan's actions are of a reactionary nature, while the initiator is the Armenian leadership.
With the first option, the force of the Tripartite Statement as such is lost! With the second case, a new war is unleashed, maybe even a regional one! The decision on the Zangazur corridor is of fundamental importance and will influence both the form of exploitation of the Lachin corridor and the fate of the peace treaty, which, by the way, is not registered as a commitment anywhere, and Armenia may delay with it. It can, but it will not! Western partners are already interested in a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Mammadov wrote.
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