"Armenia has driven itself into a monstrous situation"
Aleksandr Khramchikhin in touch with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  09 August 2022 - 11:25

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Russian military expert Aleksandr Khramchikhin.

- Alexander Anatolyevich, according to your observations, has the probability of a new war in Karabakh increased against the background of revanchist sentiments in Armenia and provocations by Armenia?

- There is such a possibility. Although there are expert opinions that Armenia is going to completely withdraw from Karabakh. In this scenario, it is quite possible that the issue can be finally resolved without a war. I believe that at this stage, the probability of a new war in Karabakh is still not very high, although even taking into account the presence of Russian peacekeepers there, it cannot be said that it is zero.

As for the revanchist sentiments in Armenia, I don't think they have enough potential to start a war.

- And how do you find such potential in Armenia itself as a whole?

- Having won independence, Armenia has driven itself into a monstrous situation. After all, they wanted it themselves. As they say, what they wanted, they got, and now they themselves are dealing with the consequences of all this.

- Do you admit the possibility of signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- I think there is such a possibility.

- How does Moscow assess the situation in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region taking into account the factor of Russian peacekeepers?

- For Russia, from the point of view of the stay of its peacekeepers in Karabakh, the status quo is acceptable, especially considering that in three years the term of their presence in the region ends. In my opinion, it is easier for Azerbaijan to wait for this deadline. Although it is difficult for me to guess whether this is part of Baku's plans. Nevertheless, the extension of the Russian peacekeepers' stay in the region depends on the desire of the parties, and if one of them opposes it, the peacekeepers will leave the region ahead of schedule.

- Can the next anti-Russian demarches in Armenia force the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gyumri?

- Even taking into account Armenia's wishes, such a scenario now seems to me extremely unlikely.

- How do you assess the current Turkish-Russian relations, do they have any prospects?

- This is a very complex and multifaceted relationship. But judging by the current situation, Moscow and Ankara really need each other. Therefore, I do not imagine that these relations can somehow deteriorate significantly, despite the fact that there are a lot of reasons for them to even go to war. But as we can see, they are not getting worse, on the contrary, friendship continues between Türkiye and Russia, despite opposing interests.

- What could Putin and Erdogan agree on Karabakh during the recent meeting in Sochi?

- I don't think that the Karabakh issue was the focus of attention of the Turkish and Russian leaders at this meeting. Most likely, Ukraine, Syria and gas issues were discussed much more.

- Do you think Putin and Erdogan were able to agree on Syria in Sochi?

- "To agree on Syria" sounds abstract. The only thing they could agree on was to preserve the status quo in this country.

- Do you think Türkiye can abandon the military operation in Syria?

- But it did not start it, obviously, after all, Putin and Erdogan were able to reach a consensus on this issue.

- The recent Tehran summit consolidated the Tehran-Moscow-Ankara political axis. What is the potential of this format, again taking into account the contradictions in the positions of the three leading regional players?

- This is an even more complex construction. But maybe it is this complexity that keeps everything going, although there are a lot of conflicts, including Iran and Türkiye. Given that Russian-Iranian relations are far from unambiguous, the tangle of these ties is so complex that you cannot answer in short.

Caliber.Az