Hard talk awaits Armenian PM in Moscow after anti-Russia moves
About upcoming summit

ANALYTICS  26 October 2022 - 16:04

Moscow is closely monitoring the negotiation agenda of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, trying to retain the status of the main mediator between Baku and Yerevan. In this context, we should also consider the already announced meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian leaders, which will be held at the Kremlin initiative in the coming days.

Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov recalled Russia's intentions to invite Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold a regular meeting of the heads of the three states some time ago. This indicates the Kremlin's obvious concern about the activation of the EU, France, OSCE and the United States on the Armenian-Azerbaijani track. However, Ushakov did not hide the fact that Moscow believes that some non-regional players are persistently being introduced into the negotiation process.

"Of course, we see that extra-regional players, in particular the EU and the USA, are trying to get involved in this work. But they mainly use our best practices and, of course, the fundamental agreements were reached in 2020 and 2021 with our active participation," Putin's aide said.

There is no doubt that the Russian Presidential Administration representative's statements reflect the Kremlin's position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement and Europe's mediation attempts, which Moscow clearly considers inappropriate. At the same time, the Kremlin's message is addressed primarily to Armenia, which is trying in every possible way to avoid fulfilling the agreements set out in the trilateral documents of 2020 and 2021. Moscow understands that in this way Armenia is trying to delay the negotiation process and the fulfilment of obligations related to the opening of transport communications, in particular the Zangazur corridor, as well as the signing of a peace treaty with Baku. This is, firstly, and secondly, Yerevan is still continuing a double political game, trying at least outwardly to maintain allied relations with Moscow and at the same time stuffing itself into allies with the West so that it would be possible to beg for help from both sides.

At the upcoming meeting in the Kremlin, apparently, Pashinyan will have to give a report on the strategic mistakes he made in the European direction. First of all, the Armenian prime minister will have to explain in detail the need for the presence in Armenia of the EU mission, which has already arrived there last week. To recap, the agreement on sending an EU civilian mission to Armenia was reached on October 6 in Prague as a result of negotiations between the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, France and the Council of Europe. Brussels and Paris wanted to use the EU mission to enter the region by creating a joint border monitoring group with Azerbaijan's participation, but Baku did not agree with this scenario and managed to insist on its refusal.

As a result, it was decided that the mission would be located only on Armenia's territory, while Azerbaijan would cooperate with it solely in accordance with its own interests. Thus, Azerbaijan has once again shown integrity in two important aspects at once. Firstly, Baku made it clear to the Old World that it has its own independent policy, which is based only on the interests of the nation and the state and from which it does not intend to deviate, and secondly, confirmed its commitment to the trilateral agreement of November 2020, in particular, Russia's mediation as a regulator of the negotiation process.

We are confident that Moscow has objectively assessed the principled position of the Azerbaijani side, having drawn the appropriate conclusions. Yerevan will have to come to terms with the fact that it has once again miscalculated its rosy hopes for Europe, which did not object to Baku's conditions. It is worth noting one more nuance. Last week, in addition to the EU mission, an OSCE assessment group under the auspices of the OSCE Needs Assessment Mission arrived in Armenia. Reacting to this step of the Europeans, which was not coordinated with him, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that this so-called assessment mission, which has been in Armenia for more than a week, does not have an OSCE mandate and, accordingly, cannot be associated with this international organization. First, this issue has not been discussed by any OSCE body making collective decisions. In Baku, Armenia's unilateral initiative was regarded as a private visit by a group of representatives of several states, and sending it to this country raised objective questions to the OSCE itself. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry recalled that once, due to Armenia's openly destructive position, it took years to coordinate two OSCE missions in the territories of Azerbaijan occupied at that time in 2005 and 2010.

"Azerbaijan's request to send another such mission, taking into account the countless illegal actions in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, including the facts of illegal settlements in these territories, was not fulfilled until 2020 due to Armenia's opposition," the Azerbaijani diplomatic department said. And now, in the case of the new European mission, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry rightly considers "such an ill-considered unilateral action by the OSCE secretariat contrary to the basic principles of any responsible and trustworthy mediation, which require, in particular, the consent of the parties, the impartiality of the mediators and compliance with the obligations of states arising from international law".

Baku has brought its extremely objective opinion that decisions in the OSCE should be made on the basis of consensus and with the coordination of any issues with both sides, in this case with Baku and Yerevan, to the organisation's leadership. And in protest against the illegal OSCE decisions, Azerbaijan refused to discuss the organisation's 2023 budget. In any case, the need for its observation mission in Armenia will not be reconsidered yet. That is, in a short period, Yerevan suffered two diplomatic defeats at once. On the one hand, it failed to drive a wedge into Azerbaijan-EU relations (since the parties reached a consensus on the EU mission's deployment on the Armenian territory), on the other hand, Yerevan again failed to impose its OSCE initiatives on Baku. Anyway, there is no doubt that Moscow does not lose sight of a single movement of Armenia, which has already discredited itself as an ally and has actually lost the Kremlin's trust due to flirting with the West, expressed in close coordination with US officials (especially against the background of their visits to Yerevan), as well as Western partners in Brussels and Paris.

Another important point. In a recent statement, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the upcoming summit plans to discuss the whole range of trilateral and bilateral issues. The Russian diplomat added that Moscow is "concerned about the alarming trends gaining momentum in Transcaucasia, where the West is clearly trying to transfer the confrontational schemes worked out in Ukraine".

According to her, in an effort to damage the centuries-old ties between the two countries and peoples, steps are being taken to discredit Russia's regional policy and Moscow is convinced that "attempts by external forces to quarrel between Moscow and Yerevan will not succeed".

The following conclusions can be drawn from the Russian Foreign Ministry's statements in the person of Zakharova. First, Russia gives Armenia another chance to come to its senses and abandon the empty illusions associated with the West. Second, it is also a reminder to Yerevan that Russia is categorically against the appearance of Western intermediaries on the Armenian territory, and this step initiated by Armenia works against the interests of Armenia itself, which may lose the support of its closest ally in the region - Russia. Third, it is no coincidence that Russia has drawn attention to the fact that it considers a possible theory of the confrontational schemes devised in Ukraine. The latest message is a serious warning to Armenia, and Yerevan should not dismiss it before finally handing over responsibility for the country's security to the Americans. This nuance is especially pertinent in light of recent US delegation visits to the country. It is possible that the Americans assured Pashinyan not only of their support for his continued rule but also of Armenia's security in the event of a force majeure situation.

On the other hand, Zakharova's statements are very timely and justified against the background of Armenia's anti-Russian attacks and possible attempts to withdraw from Russian integration projects, in particular from the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation]. This idea is not some kind of sensation, the talk that Armenians want to leave this military bloc has been going on for a long time, so it is not surprising that during the anti-Russian mass demonstrations, Armenian citizens took to the streets with posters calling for withdrawal from the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union], the CSTO and, in general, from Russia's influence zone.

This topic has recently been significantly updated in the Armenian media. Thus, [Yerevan-based] Hraparak newspaper published a report that last week the initiative group "Association for Withdrawal from the CSTO" sent an appeal to Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan with a proposal to organise parliamentary hearings on "security issues of Armenia", in particular, discussion of the public demand for Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO. A similar appeal was addressed to other agencies responsible for security and defence. And this is just one indicative fact that Armenia is seriously thinking about leaving the CSTO. Therefore, Pashinyan in the Kremlin will have to endure a far from pleasant dialogue with Putin against the background of Armenia's active pro-Western policy and harsh anti-Russian rhetoric, which has taken on a massive character there. And most likely, with any outcome of these negotiations, he will return to Yerevan with strict instructions from Moscow.

Caliber.Az