From Russia with love
102nd military base remains in Gyumri

ANALYTICS  10 January 2023 - 10:58

"The Russian military base will be encircled". No, this is not a summary from the Ukrainian front and not the details of secret NATO documents. This is a statement by Vahe Gasparyan, a representative of Armenia's opposition National Democratic Pole (NDP), made at the end of December last year. "We will appeal to our people to block the military base in Gyumri," he promised.

Dictum-factum. About 200 people responded to the call of the pro-European and Russophobic Sasna Tsrer party (it is the core of the NDP), who gathered on January 8 for a protest in front of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri. As you can see, the scale of the "operation" was somewhat different from the announced plans. The "people" did not show up. The sparse crowd chanted anti-Russian slogans and waved relevant posters. Here are some of them: "Russia - the enemy", "Deoccupation, de-Sovietisation, de-Russification", "International peacekeepers to Karabakh", "No Russo-Turkish occupation", "Open the corridor!", "No CSTO!", etc.

The action had quite a weird name - "Blockade for the sake of getting out of the blockade", which implied the protesters' main demand to Russia - to ensure unblocking of the "corridor" (the Lachin road). There is another foul-up here, by the way. The word "blockade", especially in relation to the Russian strategic object would definitely cause very unpleasant associations for Russians...

Apart from the mentioned Vahe Gasparyan the well-known Ara Papyan, historian, journalist, and former ambassador to Canada, was also very active. "If Russia cannot or does not want to ensure unblocking, it should state this, and we will decide what to do," he said, making subtle geopolitical hints.

The news summary goes on to say: "Numerous police officers arrived in Gyumri from Yerevan and prevented the protesters from approaching the street where the military unit is located. There was a clash between protesters and police officers. Around 100 protesters were detained".

That's it in a nutshell. It's no big deal, really. Putin seems to have nothing to hold against the Armenian government. A marginal radical party, with at most 3% of the population's support, held a sparse rally, which was furthermore dispersed.

Let us not be confused by the lack of legal correlation between the 102nd Russian military base stationed in Armenia and the RPC temporarily deployed in part of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. With all the ability of Armenian propaganda to pull the strings and connect the unconnected, it is clear that the connection here is formal. Pashinyan, cornered by what Armenian society sees as Russia's passive stance on the "Lachin Standoff", is sending a kind of signal to Russia that Armenia is ready to change its foreign policy course. They say that if you cannot influence Azerbaijan and cannot promote the agenda we want in the peace talks, then we will turn to the West. They say our anti-Russian forces are still weak, but unless Russia takes a tougher stance on Azerbaijan, the influence of these groups will increase. Our country is democratic, I can't forbid the action, but I've detained a good half of them nevertheless. No one can guarantee what will happen next. In a word, a primitive bluff, which, in the light of national colour, could well be called asouma-diplomacy.

There is no respect in the world for such diplomacy - and it is not backed up by any credible action. Yes, the action has been dispersed. The key question is where? The law enforcement forces had the power to turn demonstrators away at a distant location, not to allow them to come within firing distance. The demarche is clear. Along with the above-mentioned obscene slogans, it was not nice. A slap in the face to the big brother. It will add some to Russia's irritation, and the blame will again lie with Pashinyan. Pashinyan's tragedy is that he does nothing. He only "sends signals", while Azerbaijan successfully combines diplomatic, economic, and military tools to implement its policy. And after the resounding defeat in the 44-day war, there is only one thing he must do - make peace with Azerbaijan while recognizing its territorial integrity. Perhaps it is difficult for him to take such a step due to the pressure of both external and internal factors. Meanwhile, Pashinyan himself is apparently aware of the futility of such behavior. You do not have to be a big physiognomist to notice how confused he is, and has been for a long time.

What is the outcome?

The likelihood that Russia will soon curtail its base is negligible. There are absolutely no economic, political or military preconditions for such a step. There are also no conditions in Armenian society itself for such a drastic U-turn. Russia is lamented, but no alternative security guarantor is presented.

On the other hand, there is also a negligible probability of the deployment of a collective Western military force in Armenia. To begin with, the "collective West" notion is largely incorrect. In the context of unfolding multipolarity and a war of all against all, this notion is becoming an anachronism. The US priorities, for example, do not include plans to deploy military contingents in the Greater Middle East. Otherwise, they would not have withdrawn from it beforehand. The Armenian establishment does not mention Great Britain as an ally at all. When talking about the West, Armenian politicians primarily refer to the European Union and France. However, even between these two seemingly identical actors, there are conflicting visions of peace in the South Caucasus. The EU, as a supranational structure, takes into account the interests of all its members, including those in Eastern Europe. And the latter, against the backdrop of declining Russian natural gas supplies, is badly in need of imports of Azerbaijani fuel. Paris, being relatively independent of gas supplies from the East, is trying to push its own neo-imperial agenda and is entering an inevitable clash with Brussels. Again, let us note the physiognomy and recall how tense and gloomy Macron is, and how relaxed and cheerful Michel is at the negotiation table, as it was, for example, in Prague. Yes, the issue of deploying bases on the sovereign territory of Armenia is theoretically not in the range of issues discussed with Azerbaijan, but nevertheless, in the absence of delimitation between Baku and Yerevan, the issue of Armenia's sovereign territory remains open, and our partners should listen to our opinion.

France, lacking any coherent foreign policy doctrine, has no possibility of establishing a military presence in the South Caucasus today (despite its ambitions). Driven more by neo-imperial rhetoric than actual manoeuvres, this state only creates problems "on the ground" for its ward, Armenia. The whole world was convinced during the 44-day war that the protraction of the negotiation process with Azerbaijan is fraught with danger. Given this painful experience, we repeat that it is in Armenia's interests to conclude peace with Azerbaijan as soon as possible, recognizing its territorial integrity. Alas, all preconditions for this step are still hanging in the air.

Caliber.Az