Will Moscow go for de-westernisation of Armenia?
In the wake of Russian MFA's recent statements

ANALYTICS  23 February 2023 - 10:40

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said during a phone conversation with EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar that Brussels' decision to deploy an EU mission in Armenia has a clear geopolitical overtone that is not conducive to real stabilisation in the South Caucasus. The Russian diplomat also deemed it necessary to stress that there was no consensus on the initiative between Baku and Yerevan.

A day earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made similar remarks. Her remarks sounded a bit sharper: "Unfortunately, this is not the first time we have recorded the desire of the European Union and the West, in general, to gain a foothold in allied Armenia by any means. We see these attempts as having exclusively geopolitical overtones, far from the interests of real normalisation of relations in the Transcaucasus. And then even more bluntly: "Everything is being done in order to push Russia out of the region and weaken its historical role as the main guarantor of security. Baku's publicly expressed negative assessments of the initiative are ignored".

If we analyse these statements, coupled with Russian President Putin's theses during his address to the Federal Assembly, such as the intention of Western elites "to transform a local conflict into a phase of global confrontation", we can assume that Moscow sees the EU's actions in the South Caucasus as a continuation of its policy of military confrontation with it.

It is noteworthy that it is not the first time that Russian diplomats, including the minister, have raised the issue of the EU mission to Armenia, referring to the lack of coordination of these actions with Baku. However, despite the declared solidarity with Azerbaijan, which is intended to emphasise the unilateral resentment of the EU initiative, Moscow is still a long way from real symbiosis with Baku.

Unlike Azerbaijan, Russia is not interested in the comprehensive implementation of the Trilateral Declaration of November 10, 2022. Russia's priority is to maintain its influence in the region and to do so it will push through certain provisions of the agreement and stall others. Unblocking of communications and construction of the extraterritorial Zangazur corridor, which will be controlled by the FSB, are beneficial for it, respectively. At the same time, the Kremlin is strongly against the reintegration of the separatist entity and respectively, withdrawal of its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan as soon as possible.

Interestingly, Moscow has been transparently stipulating these priorities. Thus, Maria Zakharova's already mentioned statement says: "Through their (trilateral agreements) comprehensive implementation, including unblocking of transport communications, delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, establishing contacts between the public, experts, religious circles, parliamentarians of the two countries, as well as negotiations on the elaboration of a peace treaty, lies the most direct way to improve the situation in the region". Here it is important to pay attention to the fact that in the list of measures, "unblocking transport communications" is in the first place, and "negotiations on the development of a peace process" is in the last place. The issue of mutual recognition of territorial integrity is not addressed at all.

It is worth comparing this list with the five basic principles of normalisation of relations with Armenia, announced by official Baku, where the first place is held by "mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of international borders and political independence of each other", and the last - "opening of transport and communications ...". The fact is that Azerbaijan considers integration and the unblocking of communications only after recognition of its territorial integrity and concrete steps confirming this recognition.

The installation by Azerbaijan of a checkpoint on the border, which will soon take place, will effectively consolidate its sovereignty over Karabakh and force Armenia to come to terms with the situation. That is why Aliyev's offer to the Armenian side made in Munich about the installation of a bilateral checkpoint can be perceived as a kind of generous gesture towards Pashinyan because in case Armenia accepts Azerbaijan's offer, the future Zangazur road will not be controlled by Russian special services. This is advantageous for Armenians and their Western partners. Additionally, by coupling this decision with a proposal, Baku is helping Pashinyan to present it to the public as a negotiating success, a measure to protect Armenian sovereignty.

If we add to this the failure of the Kremlin's mission to illegally bring oligarch Vardanyan into the region and Moscow's futile attempts to strengthen the pro-Russian opposition in Armenia, it becomes clear that the dynamics of events in the South Caucasus are not developing in the most favorable way for Russia.

Under these circumstances, it is not entirely clear whether the statements made by Russian diplomats are a mere protocol "rebuff" or a preparation for more serious action in Armenia - in an era of rapidly changing realities, it is not at all surprising to hear about "a special military operation for de-westernisation of Armenia".

While the article was being written, Yerevan, through Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, voiced its rejection of Baku's proposal to set up a checkpoint. At the same time, Armenian units shelled the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in several sections of the provisional border and the remnants of the bandit formations in the RPC zone of provisional responsibility. Pashinyan seems determined to derail talks again. Azerbaijan, for its part, will not tolerate provocations and will respond harshly, no matter what forces give the go-ahead to this outburst of Armenian fighters.

Be that as it may, the gendarmes will be surely shocked.

Caliber.Az