Houthi drone attacks unleash global crisis in the heart of the Read Sea
No good news for humanity

ANALYTICS  22 December 2023 - 14:32

The media are alarmed by a new global crisis in the Red Sea. On December 18, reports emerged that British Petroleum, a British oil behemoth, had announced the suspension of its tankers in the region. Earlier, major shipping companies said they would suspend voyages in the Red Sea. The announcements came from four of the world's top five container carriers - CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company. Smaller container operators, as well as dry bulk carriers and oil tankers, may follow suit, as they account for 53% of global container trade. Ships transiting the Suez Canal pass through the Red Sea. We are talking about closing one of the world's most important arteries.

Attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) were the reason for the decisions. These pro-Iranian rebels control a quarter of Yemen's territory and its capital, Sana'a, as well as a significant part of the country's western coast. The latter is particularly important. A robust arsenal of drones, anti-ship, cruise and ballistic missiles has enabled the Houthis to keep the Red Sea shipping lanes bombarded. At the same time as firing ballistic missiles at Israel, the Houthi movement is constantly shelling transport ships in the region. The Houthis have stated that they will continue to do so as long as Israel bombs Gaza and until the people of Gaza receive sufficient water, fuel and humanitarian aid.

According to Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, the Houthis have a huge arsenal of anti-ship missiles, including missiles with a range of up to 800 kilometres. In other words, they could be in control of a major transport artery for an extended time.

The Hezbollah are part of an Iranian-created "axis of resistance" that includes Lebanon's Hezbollah, Shia militias controlling Iraq, the Assad regime and loyalist militias in Syria and Hamas in Palestine. It was Tehran that was the architect of the Houthis' and Hezbollah's missile capabilities.

The Houthis are often spoken of as an independent force that originated and operates inside Yemen, where they are engaged in a power struggle with other groups. They are an armed militia force made up of members of several tribes in the north of Yemen. They are led by wealthy tribal nobles who control trade routes and have seized state offices and government resources in the north. Religiously, they differ from the Iranians, practising Zeidism, a movement close to but distinct from Shi'ism. Gregory Johnson, a leading American expert on the Houthis, defines them as a "hybrid movement", something between an armed group and a state. The United States, he says, has an agenda against hostile nation-states and terrorist groups. But the Houthis are neither. The organisation is a hybrid, a mixture of the two - a militia movement that controls a state in northern Yemen. When it comes to fighting hybrid groups, the United States has not yet developed an adequate response.

In any case, as Israeli analyst Jonathan Spyer points out: "The Houthis are directly dependent on Iranian arms supplies, which they use to fight their opponents. Without Iranian arms, the Houthis will be unable to compete effectively with other groups seeking to control Yemen. Therefore, the Houthis cannot disobey Iran's orders regarding their operations outside the country. This means that Iran is behind the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea. This is Tehran's typical tactic - not to act directly, but to achieve its goals with the help of allies.

Ensuring the "unity of the resistance arena" is Iran's strategic project. In other words, while Israel fights Hamas in Gaza, its other Iranian allies-Hezbollah in Lebanese and the Houthis in Yemen-launch rocket attacks against Israel, diverting some of its forces and inflicting military and economic losses on it. This is how the rivalry between Iran and Israel for influence in the Middle East is developing. Interfering with Red Sea shipping can cause economic damage to Israel.

However, the Houthis' actions have been on such a scale that they are a threat to world trade. To have an idea of what is happening, a few figures should be in mind. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow bottleneck at the outlet of the Red Sea, carries 12 per cent of the world's trade and about 30 per cent of the world's container traffic. Equally important, about 9 per cent of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through it. Finally, the Suez Canal, the Egyptian state's most important source of revenue, generates $7 billion a year for the Egyptian government and is the second bottleneck through which ships travel to and from the Red Sea.

It would be a disaster for the Egyptian economy, which is already going through difficult times, and a severe blow to the global economy if Red Sea shipping were to stop. Merchant ships will not go to the Red Sea. There will be a dramatic increase in the price of a wide range of goods, and the impact on the Egyptian economy will be huge. All in all, this has the potential for both a deep political crisis in Egypt (the Arab Spring of 2011 began as a result of rising food prices) and a negative scenario for the global economy.

The Red Sea conflict has two dimensions: economic and political. On the one hand, it could lead to a decline in the global market. On the other hand, it could lead to a major political and military crisis.

So far, the US has avoided direct involvement in the Arab-Israeli conflict, although it has sided with Israel. It limited itself to warning Iran to stay out of Gaza. They have also ordered their warships to intercept Houthis' missiles flying towards Israel. At the moment, they cannot protect each vessel. Many merchant ships have already been attacked by the Houthis. The continuation of this situation threatens not only shipping but also the US's status as a superpower.

So far, the world order has been controlled by the Americans, partly because they have secured the major trade routes. But if the US can no longer do this, it will no longer be able to claim superpower status and will have to give way to others over time. That is why the Americans are talking about a global coalition to ensure the safety of Red Sea shipping. The most likely participants would be US NATO allies. But other countries could also join. Washington has several options. These range from creating a dense missile defence umbrella over the trade routes (which would require the deployment of many more warships) to attacking the military facilities and infrastructure of the Houthis. The US may use both options.

The current US administration has been indecisive in all armed conflicts, not just the Red Sea. In recent months, Iranian proxies have launched more than 100 missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East in response to American support for Israel. Washington's response has been infrequent and weak. The Americans are keen to prevent the conflict from spilling over into the wider Middle East, as this would draw them into an unwanted confrontation and lead to another spike in oil prices and a global economic recession.

More than this, though, the US administration's foreign policy may be at stake. Charles Lister, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, said in a tweet that the White House was putting "every possible handcuff" on the US's ability to respond to the attacks. He cited sources in the Department of Defence. Spyer notes that if such statements reflect reality, it is clear that the US administration is now pursuing a strategy that no longer suits its objectives. The disruption of a vital strategic waterway is not just Israel's problem. "If this goes on, the Houthi attacks and the disruption of trade in the Red Sea will inevitably affect oil prices and thus the global economy." The Houthi attacks also challenge the US role in guaranteeing global energy routes, says Spyer.

The Americans are likely to form an anti-Houthi maritime coalition in the near future to ensure the safety of shipping in the Red Sea. But building such a coalition will be another step towards escalating the conflict in the Middle East, whether they like it or not. After all, they will probably have to take on the Houthis, who are backed by Iran. The current state of global politics brings no good news for the people of our planet.

Caliber.Az