"EU mission’s expansion in Armenia will bring increased espionage in the region"
Russian expert on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  25 December 2023 - 10:27

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Sergei Borovikov, a Russian expert and leading analyst of the Association for Cross-Border Cooperation.

- What do you think the outgoing year was like for Russia?

- The year 2023 was not an easy and rather tense one for Russia. First of all, it was marked by the struggle with economic sanctions, economic restructuring and consolidation of elites in a new geopolitical environment. But on the whole, all these numerous difficulties have been overcome quite honourably. Frankly speaking, I expected something worse this year, so I am moderately optimistic about its outcome. The process of the country's exit from external and, for the most part, Western rule is gradually continuing, although the [Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny] Prigozhin story was completely insane and impossible to analyse or comment on. But there are always surprises and most likely there will be more than once.

- How would you describe the results of 2023 in terms of Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations?

- I think there is nothing to boast about here. It is possible that to some extent this is because the South Caucasus is not currently the main area of Russian foreign policy interests and, accordingly, unfortunately, work on it is carried out on a residual basis.

- Has your previous forecast regarding the normalisation of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia changed?

- I remain sceptical about the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, as the conflict is not completely over, and peace is in an extremely shaky and unstable phase, which provokes further unfolding of both latent and actual conflicts. I am afraid that lasting peace in the region is still a long way off.

- Expansion of the EU mission in Armenia. How will this factor affect the regional climate in the foreseeable future?

- Undoubtedly, the EU is now trying to exploit any weaknesses in Russia's position with the maniacal aim of harming it in any way. I think this is how the EU will use its reserves to expand its influence in the South Caucasus, and what the cost of all this will be for Armenia and Azerbaijan will not bother them at all.

Of course, the expansion of the EU mission will create additional risks for the region in the form of increased espionage and active support for political forces loyal to Europe.

- How do you assess the level of competition between the Russian Federation, the US and the EU for leadership in the South Caucasus and as mediators in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?

-There is certainly competition between Russia, the US and the EU in the South Caucasus region, and it is quite high. Another thing is that Russia and the other external players have completely different approaches to the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, even though the situation in the region is of secondary importance for each of them.

Russia is mainly engaged in the Ukrainian direction, and the US is actively involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But against the background of certain Russian successes in Africa, Ukraine and Syria, the West does not give up its attempts to attack Russia, and the most convenient occasion for this is the South Caucasus region, which has traditionally been in the orbit of Russian interests. So, the competition for leadership in this region is quite old and is likely to continue in the future.

Caliber.Az