Israel's double strike
International panorama on Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  05 January 2024 - 10:40

According to the media reports, an Israeli drone struck the headquarters of the local Hamas branch in the Shiite area of Dahieh in Lebanon’s capital Beirut on January 2.

As a result of the strike, Saleh al-Arouri, one of the top leaders of Hamas and deputy chairman of the Hamas political bureau, was killed.

A few days earlier, the Israeli Air Force shelled Damascus, as a result of which a high-ranking Iranian military officer, a representative of the elite of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Gen. Sayyed Razi Mousavi, was killed.

Officially he was in Syria to support the “resistance front” against Israel, but in fact, he was in charge of the logistics of pro-Iranian forces - the various Shiite militias deployed in Syria and Lebanon, as well as the Sunni Palestinian Hamas group.

Iran, the main sponsor and inspirer of the fight against the US-Israeli influence in the Middle East, supplied weapons through Syria, including precision missiles, to Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon, as well as to the branches of Hamas, the Palestinian organisation operating in that country.

A quarter of a million Palestinian refugees live in Lebanon. Hamas has a great influence on Palestinian refugee camps. The main tool of Iranian influence in Lebanon is Hezbollah, while Hamas operates under its tutelage and with its consent.

Both groups, like the Houthis in Yemen and a number of Iraqi and Syrian militias, are part of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a pro-Iranian coalition in the Middle East.

Both attacks were committed on the eve of the anniversary of the assassination of one of the key figures in Iranian foreign policy and the head of all Iranian covert operations abroad, IRGC Gen. Qassem Soleimani. He was killed in Baghdad by a missile launched from the US drone on January 3, 2020.

Thus, both Israeli strikes, launched to kill high-ranking leaders of Iran and Hamas, hint to Iran about the danger threatening its top leaders.

The attacks, timed to coincide with the anniversary of Soleimani's death, send such a message to Tehran as "be careful, we might come for you". This sounds ominous because Israel has already killed nuclear physicists and senior IRGC officers in Iran.

A typical tactic of Middle Eastern countries and political movements is to exchange messages through missile strikes and covert military operations. Such actions are considered convincing in the region, while those who are incapable of committing such actions are not taken into account. However, is such a situation only in the Middle East?

Moreover, Israel's actions are a blow to the image of the Iranian government and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian political analyst Reza Talebi said that the murder of Gen. Seyyed Razi Mousavi has put the Iranian authorities in a ridiculous position.

On the one hand, Tehran constantly promises to brutally punish Israel, and wipe it off the face of the earth, but so far it can do little. The Iranian elite forces are suffering losses.

However, Israel has another goal by making attacks on the enemy’s territory. All this happens during the war that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) is waging in the Gaza Strip with the Palestinian Hamas movement. Israel's official goal is to eliminate the military wing of this movement.

At the same time, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah is shelling Israeli territory from Lebanon. Its and Iran's goal is to draw some Israeli forces away from Gaza and force Israel to be concerned about a two-front war.

However, Hezbollah carefully controls its actions, using missile systems and mortars against Israeli troops and settlements no further than 10 kilometres deep.

Until now, Israel has also slightly attacked Lebanon. Both sides tried to avoid harsh escalation and all-out war, too dangerous for everyone.

However, the Israeli attack in Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, signals that Israel is ready for escalation and warns Hezbollah that it is playing with fire.

“It seems that if Hezbollah overreacts to the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, Israel will raze southern Lebanon upon the Dahiya Doctrine. On the other hand, the lack of response [to Israeli operations in its deep rear] opens the way for further targeted Israeli operations,” Iranian analyst Hossein Aghaie wrote on X.

The “Dahiya Doctrine” is an Israeli military concept first put forward by Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff. According to it, in case of an armed conflict, Israel can launch disproportionately powerful attacks not only on the enemy’s military, but also on the civilian infrastructure, in particular, in the Dahieh region. It is important that today Gadi Eisenkot is a member of the narrow Israeli military cabinet in the emergency government of national unity.

“I am not sure about the Biden government, but Israel's behaviour is consistent with the 'great collapse of the axis of resistance' theory which I put forward. The assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, the top Hamas leader, is considered a significant Israeli success. This is a strong signal to other senior officials of the so-called "Axis of Resistance", including Hamas commanders, senior officials and others. Moreover, the Israeli army is changing the phase of the operation,” Aghaie noted.

This means that Israel, through such strikes, could (theoretically) cause hesitation among senior commanders of various pro-Iranian groups and create a split among them.

Finally, Israel puts the enemy in an awkward position. Presently, either Hezbollah will strike deep into Israeli territory, which will lead to a massive Israeli response, or it will do nothing to increase the pressure on Israel and thereby, by demonstrating weakness, give Israel the opportunity to further attack its rear.

It seems that the situation escalates in the Middle East again.

Caliber.Az