Moscow warns: Armenia could face Ukraine's fate
It's time for Pashinyan to stop double-dealing

ANALYTICS  07 February 2024 - 15:40

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently said in an interview with public radio that "Yerevan, for objective and subjective reasons, cannot continue to develop military-technical cooperation and defence relations only with Russia", thus puzzling his overlord with yet another "surprise".

"It is a question of understanding with whom we can really have military-technical and defence relations. This problem used to be simple because there was no such problem and there was no difficulty in drawing up a concept. In the past, 95 to 97 per cent of our defence relations were with the Russian Federation, but now it can't be, both objectively and subjectively," Pashinyan said, referring to the fact that at a crucial moment, the CSTO is telling Armenia to solve its problems on its own.

We should immediately point out that in order to justify Yerevan's dual policy, which has long displeased neither Russia nor the West, the Armenian authorities always repeat this hackneyed and, to all appearances, rather a tiresome argument to Moscow. And as a result, each of them tries to influence Armenia. Second, the Armenian side uses the same argument to dissociate itself from its obligations to the CSTO.

For example, Armenia has still not signed the final CSTO documents adopted at the November summit in Minsk, which the organisation's Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov brought to Yerevan last December. And it seems that the leadership of the 'land of stones' is in no hurry to resolve this issue in favour of the military bloc, and will most likely continue to postpone it indefinitely. Instead, Pashinyan complains about the "inaction of the CSTO".

As expected, however, the Armenian prime minister's comments provoked a negative reaction in Russia, with harsh criticism of Pashinyan coming from members of the Russian State Duma. In particular, Alexei Zhuravlev, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma's defence committee, told NEWS.ru that "the Armenian leadership is on the way to destroying relations with Russia" and warned that the Armenian leader risked "losing Yerevan".

At the same time, the Russian parliamentarian expressed discontent with Armenia's turning its back on CSTO structures, and its participation in NATO exercises, and even recalled "that Yerevan's earlier anti-Russian demarche led to the events in Karabakh".

This is not the first time that Duma deputies are sending sharp messages to the Armenian leadership. Last December, the same Zhuravlev also criticised Armenia, pointing to the "strange" behaviour of the Armenian authorities in connection with the failure to sign the peace treaty with Azerbaijan and to define the border.

Another Duma deputy, Viktor Sobolev, called Pashinyan's anti-Russian rhetoric mean-spirited and noted that it was the result of increasing US pressure.

In general, such statements have been heard quite often in Russia recently, both at the expert level and at the level of the Foreign Ministry and the State Duma. Most notably, last October, the state-run TASS agency published an article claiming that "Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is following the path of Volodymyr Zelenskyy" and that Armenia itself is turning into "another Ukraine". In other words, Moscow is warning Yerevan of the negative consequences of its anti-Russian policy, while at the same time indirectly hinting that it will not give up on its hapless ally caught in the "Western trap". At least, this is the meaning of the statements made by the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, according to which "the Western countries are clinging to Armenia with an animal-like grip after the failure of their policy in Ukraine", as well as the statements made by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, in November last year on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, according to which the Western countries are "courting" Armenia and want to be friends with it against Russia. At the same time, it is clear that Moscow is not content to blame the West alone for Armenia's estrangement from Russia.

At the same time, Moscow is warning Yerevan that a strategic mistake in Armenia's foreign policy choice in favour of the West promises a Ukrainian scenario. The conclusion is that Moscow's message to Armenia is a clear warning of the consequences of its anti-Russian policy. Accordingly, Pashinyan's ability to continue double-dealing is significantly reduced.

Russian political analyst Vladimir Kireyev, head of the analytical department of the International Eurasian Movement, shares this view. Commenting to Caliber.Az on the possible consequences of Yerevan's anti-Russian policy, the Russian expert noted that Armenia is following the path of Ukraine, but in a longer time frame.

"The Armenian leadership, which pursues a dual policy and constantly looks to the West while being part of the Eurasian integration projects and the CSTO, continues to provoke Russia with ridiculous statements and actions of an anti-Russian nature. Pashinyan has shown his ideological hostility towards Russia from the beginning of his term in office in Armenia, and the same policy has been followed until now," the expert said.

"I think that Moscow does not intend to tolerate the pro-Western policy of the Armenian leadership and has so far warned that Yerevan's double game could have unpredictable consequences for it. At the moment, any relations between Russia and Armenia are toxic and problematic, and Moscow is very unhappy with the Armenian leadership's statements that 'Russia cannot be Armenia's only key partner in the defence and military-technical sphere'. I do not rule out the possibility that Moscow will impose sanctions on Armenia for the sale and maintenance of weapons if it is faced with the problem of withdrawing the Russian military base from Gyumri and breaking off relations with the CSTO. At the same time, Russia can use economic leverage against Armenia and freeze financial aid to Yerevan if it continues to pursue a pro-Western foreign policy. Armenia's actions today increasingly resemble those of Ukraine, and this is not the best option for it to preserve what remains of its statehood in the long run. I believe it is high time for the Armenian leadership to make a rational choice and abandon its dual policy, which may sooner or later turn into a catastrophe for it like the Ukrainian one," Kireyev concluded.

Caliber.Az