How does the Houthi attack affect global LNG supply?
Favouring inter-basin trade
ANALYTICS 14 February 2024 - 16:18
Fuad Shahbazov |
In recent weeks, Houthi-led maritime attacks in the Red Sea on commercial vessels moving between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea have significantly increased global shipping risks and raised the ire of many foreign governments.
Since the attacks unfolded in light of the Israel-Hamas war, experts predicted major disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal as frequent attacks on vessels have forced carriers to avoid waterways, which will have long-term political and economic risks. Connected to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, the Red Sea is the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.
The disruptions of maritime shipments inevitably impacted the global supply of liquid natural gas (LNG) going through the Suez Canal. Many energy-producer countries like the United States (US), Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and others use this route to ship LNG tankers to Europe and vice versa.
However, in light of the violent attacks, many global energy companies decided to re-route LNG supplies due to safety concerns. For instance, Qatar Energy, the world's second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, stopped sending tankers via the Red Sea in January 2024, although production continues. Since December 2023, at least four tankers used to carry Qatari LNG were held up over the weekend after the US and British-led maritime coalition responded by carrying out dozens of air and sea strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
In addition, in the oil market, at least six more oil tankers have either diverted their course away from or paused before entering the southern Red Sea Read since February 2024. As much as 8.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and oil products traversed the Red Sea in the January-November period of 2023. As a result, Houthis' attacks made the reaching of the Suez Canal more perilous.
About 8% of global LNG shipments have passed through the Suez Canal in 2023, but only about half have flowed east through the canal from the Atlantic Basin. The most active users of the waterway among LNG suppliers are Qatar, with the US representing less than 30 per cent. However, some leading risk analysis companies believe that disrupted LNG flows through the Suez Canal would have only a limited impact on global LNG markets because it would not significantly reduce global LNG supply, although it would suggest higher shipping costs for specific routes such as exports from Qatar to Europe.
As of today, the impact of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels had a limited impact on global LNG supply. This is mainly due to sufficient global supply, a warmer-than-average northern hemisphere winter, high European storage levels, and new market dynamics brought on by the Russo-Ukrainian war. Nevertheless, in case of continuity of attacks in the Red Sea, the global energy market would immensely experience more volatility as such a scenario will pave the way for the militarization of the Red Sea with specific geopolitical ramifications.
At the same time, Middle East suppliers will seek more Asian buyers, who can be reached without entering the Red Sea and passing through the Suez Canal, minimizing their exposure to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Considering previous attacks, it is noteworthy that Houthi rebels mostly attack large container vessels and bulk carriers. Consequently, in the mid-term, LNG carriers may be viable targets for Houthis.
On the other hand, the US-led coalition air strikes on Houthi military bases in Yemen have limited impact as a deterrence element. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have well-organized and trained armed forces capable of conducting independent military operations, as they did against the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition in 2015. Therefore, all expectations and optimistic forecasts regarding the Western coalition's positive impact on the Red Sea seem to be unfounded.
The Houthis have, for years, been supplied by Iran, yet their shift to maritime combat and surveillance operations over the past several months implies a more recent introduction of new weaponry, including more helicopters and additionally trained military staff. Notably, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea will further hamper international transit operations, including energy flow through the Suez Canal.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Kazakhstan denies sale of military airplanes to Ukraine
28 April 2024 - 14:26
|
2
|
Erdogan hurries Yerevan: Time is running out Expert opinions on Caliber.Az
27 April 2024 - 13:58
|
3
|
ATACMS for Ukraine Winning the war against Russia
27 April 2024 - 09:45
|
4
|
Azerbaijan's energy offer signals path to normalization with Armenia Amid geopolitical shifts
26 April 2024 - 17:24
|
5
|
Azerbaijan's response to European Parliament resolution A geopolitical analysis
27 April 2024 - 11:11
|
NATO Secretary General arrives in Ukraine
29 April 2024 - 18:26
European Commission director general to tour South Caucasus countries
29 April 2024 - 18:20
Finance Minister: IsDB Group to provide $6.3 billion financing for Türkiye
29 April 2024 - 18:12
US Secretary of State hopes Hamas takes “extraordinarily generous” truce offer
29 April 2024 - 17:59
Türkiye supports Dutch prime minister as new NATO secretary-general
29 April 2024 - 17:48
Armenian PM to skip out Russian leader’s inauguration
29 April 2024 - 17:39
Azerbaijan detects over 150 mines in liberated lands
29 April 2024 - 17:34
Kazakhstan not to act as mediator for Armenia-Azerbaijan foreign ministers’ meeting
29 April 2024 - 17:22
Mr Fouks - the servant of too many masters
How much does the reputation cost?29 April 2024 - 17:15
Grand Duke of Luxembourg invited to COP29
29 April 2024 - 17:07
Could Georgia’s foreign agents bill backfire?
Between bad and worse29 April 2024 - 17:05
Harvard anti-Israel protesters fly Palestinian flag as demonstrations ramp up across country
VIDEO29 April 2024 - 16:52
Thousands of former Wagner fighters are now answering to Moscow
Article by POLITICO29 April 2024 - 16:38
Uzbek culture minister to visit Azerbaijan
29 April 2024 - 16:23
Israel intercept rockets fired at Upper Galilee settlements
29 April 2024 - 16:10
Azerbaijan to host National Carpet Festival for first time
PHOTO29 April 2024 - 15:56
World's largest airport terminal to be built in Dubai
PHOTO/VIDEO29 April 2024 - 15:44
German far-right coup plot trial to begin soon
29 April 2024 - 15:31
Azerbaijan contributes to “One Belt, One Road” initiative through its contacts with neighboring countries
PHOTO29 April 2024 - 15:25
Azerbaijan to commission four more hydroelectric power stations in Kalbajar
PHOTO / VIDEO29 April 2024 - 15:18
Political analyst: Border demarcation - maximum benefit for Armenia
29 April 2024 - 15:05
Global militarisation: A disturbing trend in contemporary international relations
Caliber.Az analysis29 April 2024 - 14:59
Georgian former minister detained at rally against bill on foreign agents
29 April 2024 - 14:54
Azerbaijani foreign minister heads to Qatar
29 April 2024 - 14:47
Some 700 guests to visit sixth World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue in Azerbaijan
29 April 2024 - 14:40
"Terror has always been the favourite tool of Kocharyan and Dashnaks"
Armenian pundit on Caliber.Az29 April 2024 - 14:30
Türkiye neutralizes two terrorists in Northern Syria
29 April 2024 - 14:26
US acquires 81 obsolete Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan
PHOTO29 April 2024 - 14:12
Azerbaijan calls on Armenia for clarifying fate of missing people
29 April 2024 - 13:59
Ukrainian forces withdraw from tactical positions amidst Russian advances near Avdiivka
Report by ISW29 April 2024 - 13:46
Azerbaijan - key player in Europe's energy security
EU Reporter article29 April 2024 - 13:32
China firms go “underground” on Russia payments as banks pull back
29 April 2024 - 13:17
How European parties win on populism and govern as business as usual?
Right-wing mirage29 April 2024 - 13:13
State Border Service officer injured in mine explosion in Azerbaijan’s Gazakh
29 April 2024 - 13:03
Azerbaijani, Armenian FMs to meet in Kazakhstan
29 April 2024 - 12:51
French journalist's hunger strike in Yerevan airport over politically driven entry ban
Why are Armenia's friends silent?29 April 2024 - 12:41
Türkiye in talks with ExxonMobil over multibillion-dollar LNG deal
29 April 2024 - 12:38
North Korea installs mines on road within Demilitarized Zone
29 April 2024 - 12:25
Israeli officials believe ICC preparing arrest warrants over war
29 April 2024 - 12:12
Azerbaijani minister congratulates Islamic Development Bank
29 April 2024 - 11:58