Armenia's pivot West sparks geopolitical frenzy
Tensions surge amid trilateral talks

ANALYTICS  04 April 2024 - 09:16

As the EU and US continue to engage Armenia, regional dynamics are shifting, amplifying concerns in Moscow and Baku over the escalating geopolitical chessboard. A new and volatile geopolitical landscape emerges as Armenia is going to Brussels to participate in the upcoming April 5 trilateral high-level meeting with the EU and the USA.

On the other hand, Armenia's relationship with Russia appears to be deteriorating, evident through escalating tensions. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan expresses apprehension over Western interventions in the South Caucasus, which it perceives as favoring Armenia and potentially bolstering its position.

This scenario underscores the intricate dynamics at play within the region, where the intersection of diplomatic maneuvers and the geopolitical interests of various stakeholders influences the trajectory of relationships. The forthcoming trilateral meeting signifies Armenia's engagement with Western powers, potentially signaling a strategic shift in its foreign policy orientation. Meanwhile, the strained relations between Armenia and Russia, traditionally significant allies, underscore evolving geopolitical realities and competing interests.

Azerbaijan's concern over perceived Western interventions underscores the sensitivity surrounding external involvement in the South Caucasus, historically marked by geopolitical rivalries and unresolved conflicts. Such apprehensions reflect the complex interplay of national interests and regional dynamics, wherein actions by external actors can have far-reaching implications for the balance of power and regional stability.

In essence, the convergence of Armenia's participation in the trilateral meeting, deteriorating relations with Russia, and Azerbaijan's concerns highlights the intricate geopolitical chessboard of the South Caucasus. Analyzing these developments through a subtle lens allows for a deeper understanding of the multifaceted dynamics shaping the region's geopolitical landscape.

Lavrov pessimistic about Moscow-Yerevan relations

The relations between Armenia and Russia do not inspire optimism due to the position of the Armenian leadership, which deliberately ruins relations with Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Izvestiya on March 28.

"I have already had to comment on the current situation in Armenia, it certainly does not inspire optimism. The Armenian leadership, to put it bluntly, under far-fetched pretexts, is twisting the history of the last three to three and a half years, deliberately leading the matter to the collapse of relations with the Russian Federation," the Russian top diplomat said.

According to Lavrov, Yerevan’s course is manifested in the denigration of Russian servicemen serving at the 102nd military base in Gyumri, the border guards, as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as a whole. Yerevan does not mention that it is the CSTO that has repeatedly defended Armenia's interests in difficult situations and was ready to send its peacekeeping mission to the country in 2021 to reduce the tension in its relations with Azerbaijan, the foreign minister added.

He recalled that the mandate of the mission was fully agreed upon at a ministerial meeting in Yerevan in the fall of 2021, after which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared the lack of consensus and called a similar EU mission to the country. It was subsequently doubled and now military personnel from Norway, Canada, and the US are being sent there, turning the EU mission into a NATO mission, Lavrov added.

"This whole story of the past few years is being twisted by both Mr. Pashinyan and his staff, the leadership of the Armenian parliament," Lavrov summarized.

Armenia's CSTO conundrum

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent statements regarding Armenia's engagement with the CSTO shed light on the complexities of Yerevan’s stance within the alliance. Pashinyan clarified that Armenia has frozen its participation in the CSTO, abstaining from decision-making processes without actively obstructing them.

This stance, as articulated by Pashinyan in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini on March 25, indicates a deliberate disengagement while refraining from outright opposition. Pashinyan highlighted Armenia's decision to abstain from CSTO events since September 2023 and the absence of a permanent representative within the bloc. While Armenia refrains from blocking CSTO decisions, it also does not actively participate in it. This subtle approach underscores Armenia's desire to maintain a degree of autonomy while steering its security concerns within the regional framework.

Furthermore, Pashinyan reiterated Armenia's openness to cultivating mutually beneficial relationships with all partners while emphasizing a commitment to fostering stable and lasting peace in the region. However, tensions surrounding Armenia's relationship with the CSTO have escalated in recent months, prompting Pashinyan to express the possibility of Armenia withdrawing from the organization if its concerns remain unaddressed.

The Kremlin's response to Armenia's stance has been measured, with Spokesman Dmitri Peskov emphasizing the need for dialogue to clarify the situation. Russia, as a key member of the CSTO, seeks to understand Armenia's position and engage in constructive dialogue in line with Pashinyan's statements.

Armenia's decision to freeze its relations with the CSTO traces back to earlier grievances, notably in 2021-2022, when Pashinyan highlighted the lack of implementation of the Collective Security Treaty about Armenia. These tensions came to a head in November 2022 when Pashinyan refused to sign a CSTO draft declaration due to the absence of a clear political assessment of the situation in the then Nagorno-Karabakh.

The evolving dynamics between Armenia and the CSTO underscore the intricacies of regional alliances and the balancing act undertaken by nations to safeguard their interests while navigating a complex geopolitical environment. As Armenia reevaluates its relationship with the CSTO, the implications for regional security and stability remain subjects of keen observation.

Azerbaijani concerns & Armenian military activity

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has been releasing a series of statements in the past few days, claiming that Armenia is gearing up for potential military provocations. The ministry issued warnings to Armenia, stating that any attempt at provocation would be met with a strong response.

Before these statements were made, several Telegram channels shared videos of an Armenian military convoy heading towards the village of Arazdayan, which borders Nakhchivan’s Sadarak District.

Telegram channels associated with the Armenian government quickly clarified that those were routine training exercises for new driver recruits learning to operate military vehicles. However, on March 31, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced that the Armenian army had been amassing troops along the traditional border between the two countries. It also mentioned that there were aggressive factions within Armenia that were threatening Azerbaijan with war and cautioned that any provocation against Azerbaijan would be swiftly thwarted.

Some international supporters of Armenia viewed this statement as a potential sign of increased tension on the border. However, the EUMA reported that they had not seen any indications of escalation from Armenia and that the situation was peaceful along the border. In response, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry released a statement on April 1, clarifying that their previous statement was not meant as a military provocation but was based on visual evidence and surveillance footage.

The ministry further mentioned that they had observed the concentration of Armenian troops near the border, the establishment of offensive positions, the construction of fortifications, and the creation of firing points through special technical means and visual monitoring. These developments raised concerns about a potential escalation.

US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller addressed these concerns, stating that Washington was urging both sides to avoid any actions that could lead to an escalation as it would not benefit anyone.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry released a report on April 2 regarding a nighttime skirmish on the border, accusing the Armenian army of provocation using small arms towards Nakhchivan. This incident occurred amidst increased Western activity in the South Caucasus, with Armenia being used as a strategic ally against Russia.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's upcoming trilateral Brussels meeting has sparked concerns in Baku and Moscow. Baku fears that Armenia may seek security guarantees from the West, potentially threatening Azerbaijan's interests in the long term. This could embolden revanchist elements in Armenia, leading to future retaliation against Azerbaijan. Baku has made clear its intention to pre-emptively strike any perceived threats to its territory, including the newly fortified Armenian positions. Failure to de-escalate could lead to a significant increase in hostilities.

The South Caucasus region hangs in a delicate balance, with Azerbaijan committed to preserving regional stability. Unilateral security assurances to Armenia by Western powers risk exacerbating tensions and destabilizing the area further. Collaborative efforts are crucial to maintaining peace in this geopolitically sensitive region.

Caliber.Az