20 points. What did Armenia, the EU and the US agree on in Brussels?
Sensational details on Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  17 April 2024 - 11:01

On April 3, i.e. exactly two days before the Armenia-EU-US format meeting scheduled for April 5 in Brussels, Caliber.Az reported, citing sources in diplomatic circles, that Nikol Pashinyan, Ursula von der Leyen and Antony Blinken intend to sign numerous agreements in Brussels in the political, economic and humanitarian spheres in order to integrate Yerevan into the Euro-Atlantic space. And, most importantly, a military pact - unprecedented for CIS countries in the field of security - will be concluded behind closed doors.

And, as we announced on April 16, Caliber.Az editorial staff possesses detailed information on how exactly the US and EU will provide military and political support to Armenia. Having analysed the obtained data in detail, we present it to the public. Unfortunately, as we noted earlier, even though both Blinken and von der Leyen in their telephone conversations with President Aliyev tried to assure us that the Brussels meeting is not directed against Azerbaijan and will affect only the economic component, facts are stubborn things and they say the opposite.

So, let's move on to the details of Western aid for Armenia.

US-Armenia

The United States will provide Yerevan with expert support for the Strategic Defence Review and the development of Armenia's new military doctrine.

This paragraph indicates a significant deepening of military cooperation between Armenia and the United States. The Strategic Defence Review and the development of a new military doctrine imply not only a review of current defence strategies, but also a complete rethinking of Armenia's approach to national security issues. Armenia's Western partners, represented by the United States, will have to assess all aspects and potential vulnerabilities of its power structures and help the Armenian side to formulate a doctrine that will correspond to the new geopolitical realities and interests - obviously, first of all, not Armenia, but the United States itself. It is important to note that such changes in the military doctrine will be accompanied by active financial and technical support from the US, which also confirms the West's desire to actively participate in the processes affecting stability in the South Caucasus. So the $65 million announced at the meeting is just the tip of the iceberg.

Bilateral military cooperation will be aligned with Armenia's cooperation with NATO in realising the partnership objectives of the Planning and Exploration Process (PARP) and the Operational Capabilities Concept (OCC).

The Planning and Review Process (PARP) and the Operational Capabilities Concept (OCC) are among the key elements of partner countries' cooperation with NATO. PARP is designed to help partners achieve their defence objectives and improve the compatibility of their armed forces with NATO. It enables partner countries to participate more effectively in joint operations. The Operational Capabilities Concept aims to develop and assess partner nations' military units so that they can meet NATO standards and cooperate effectively in Alliance operations.

In the context of the new agreements with the United States, Armenia's cooperation within the framework of these programmes will be significantly intensified. This means not only deepening military ties with NATO, but also increasing the interoperability and readiness of the Armenian armed forces. Enhanced cooperation may include greater participation in NATO exercises, the acquisition of advanced technologies and the exchange of experience, which in turn contributes to the strengthening of Armenia's military capabilities.

The United States will provide the assistance necessary to significantly develop Armenia's military and defence capabilities and strengthen border control and security, with particular attention to the border with Iran.

This development is not surprising and was quite expected, given the geopolitical ambitions of the United States. This is particularly relevant in the context of the protection of the Armenian-Iranian border by Russian border guards. Obviously, this is about the impending replacement of Russian border guards, who are a limiting factor for US reconnaissance from Armenian territory. In light of this, Iran's reaction is of interest. It should be assumed that Tehran has figured out Yerevan's game, as indicated by the recent statement by Ali Akbar Velayati, the Iranian Supreme Leader's adviser on international affairs, that the United States and NATO want to interfere in the region under the pretext of conflict resolution. According to Velayati, the NATO summit in Brussels agreed on the decision to illegally interfere in the affairs of the Caucasus region, while declaring the goal of "establishing peace". "Such behaviour indicates that this group of countries wants to cause an increase in tensions and is concocting a pretext for a military presence at the expense of the security and independence of the countries in the region," the adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader said. However, the question remains: what will follow Velayati's words? Time will tell.

The United States will send analytical teams to Armenia to conduct an on-site assessment of air force and air defence capabilities, taking into account Armenia's integration into the CSTO Joint Air Defence System.

The US is interested in changing the structure of military engagement with Armenia regarding the air defence system (ADS). Sending US assessment teams to Armenia is part of a strategy aimed at reassessing and reorganising the Armenian Air Force and Air Defence System, taking into account the country's ongoing integration into the CSTO air defence system.

This move fits into the broader context of the US desire to reduce the influence of Russia and the CSTO in the region. Some of this work is already underway, as evidenced by the radar systems delivered by France to Armenia. In this context, the US plans to play a key role by providing technology, training and support to strengthen Armenian air defences, which is intended to reduce Russian military influence over Yerevan.

The United States will provide funds to Armenia under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programme to facilitate its access to advanced military equipment and the latest technology.

The Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programme is a key instrument of US foreign policy designed to support US allies and partners by providing grants or loans for the purchase of equipment, training and other military needs. This programme contributes to strengthening the defence capabilities of recipient countries and enhancing the interoperability of armed forces.

Through the FMF, the United States intends to facilitate Armenia's access to modern military technologies and high-tech equipment. This, in turn, implies not only improving the military infrastructure, but also enhancing the operational capabilities of the Armenian army. Providing funding through the FMF underscores the US desire to strengthen its strategic partnership with Armenia by supporting its internal and external security.

The US Armed Forces will participate in joint military exercises and training with the Armenian Armed Forces to ensure interoperability.

The joint US-Armenian military exercises are aimed at increasing the level of interaction between the military units of the two countries. The goal of such exercises is to achieve interoperability, which is critical for joint operations, especially in potential conflict situations.

This cooperation will allow the Armenian military to learn new tactics and technologies, as well as improve communication skills and procedures, ensuring close co-operation with NATO. The exercise will also provide a platform to enhance the overall combat capability of the Armenian army.

The United States will strengthen Armenia's defence capabilities through the International Military Education and Training (IMET) programme.

This programme is one of the key instruments of US foreign military assistance aimed at strengthening bilateral military relations through educational courses. IMET provides military personnel from partner countries with the opportunity to train at US military institutions alongside their American counterparts.

The programme's objectives include improving mutual understanding and cooperation among military personnel and enhancing professional training. Training can cover a wide range of topics, from tactical training and operational planning to courses on logistics and strategic management.

The United States will work to accelerate the widespread use of GPS (Global Positioning System) technology throughout Armenia.

The introduction of GPS technology in the Armenian military plays a critical role in improving the accuracy and effectiveness of military operations. GPS allows troops to accurately navigate in complex or unfamiliar terrain, greatly improving mobility and rapid response to changing circumstances.

Improved weapon accuracy: GPS is used to improve the accuracy of weapons, including artillery shells and guided missiles. It enables more accurate strikes on targets.

Operational planning and coordination: GPS provides high accuracy in positioning, which is critical for effective planning and coordination of military operations. This includes synchronising the movements of different units, ensuring timely support and optimising logistics.

Control and monitoring: GPS technology allows military commanders to track the real-time location of their forces and resources, which improves the management of troops and increases their security against possible threats.

Development and use of unmanned systems: modern unmanned aerial vehicles and other autonomous systems make extensive use of GPS for navigation and tasks such as reconnaissance, monitoring and strike.

EU-Armenia

The European Union will accept an aid package under the European Peace Facility (EPF) in support of the Armenian Armed Forces. This package aims to strengthen Armenia's national security, stability and sustainability in the defence sector. It will also improve operational effectiveness, accelerate compliance with EU and NATO standards, and ensure the interoperability of the Armenian Armed Forces. The assistance package also aims to strengthen the capacity of the Armenian Armed Forces to participate in operations and missions under the EU Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

According to the information we have received, a consensus has already been reached in the European Union on the adoption of an aid package for Armenia through the European Peace Facility (EPF). The decision to provide support has been taken, which is a significant step in deepening defence cooperation between the EU and Armenia. This assistance package is aimed at several key areas: enhancing Armenia's national security and military sphere, improving operational readiness and meeting standards, which includes both EU and NATO standards.

This EU decision is also intended to encourage closer cooperation between Armenia and the EU within the framework of the Common Security and Defence Policy. The decision thus underlines the EU's strategic ambition to strengthen its influence and involvement in security on Europe's eastern borders, especially in light of current geopolitical challenges.

The EU and Armenia will hold regular consultations on defence and security issues.

As in the case of the United States, as we mentioned earlier, regular EU-Armenia consultations are planned that will focus on deepening defence and security cooperation, which is an important step towards strengthening mutual understanding and coordination. These consultations will also contribute to Armenia's closer integration into European and transatlantic security structures.

The European Union expresses its support for the decision of the Government of Armenia to withdraw the troops of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation from Zvartnots International Airport, the Armenian-Iranian border and all other international border points.

This decision by the Pashinyan government, with the direct support of the European Union, was the first concrete, tangible step to weaken Russia's position on Armenian territory, which is probably why it stands out in the context of the Brussels agreements. The withdrawal of Russian border troops from key positions, such as the international airport and the border with Iran, will create conditions for the expansion of Euro-Atlantic influence in the region, which can be seen as part of a broader strategy to counter Russian influence in the post-Soviet space. It also fits perfectly into the context of a wider geopolitical game in which the EU is seeking to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus region. This decision creates a springboard for Armenia's complete withdrawal from Russian influence.

The EU and Armenia reviewed the status of Russian Federation military facilities in Armenia, taking into account the current agreement providing for their presence until 2044.

Recently, the European Union and Armenia have been actively discussing various options regarding the future of the Russian military bases on Armenian territory on the sidelines, which was reflected in the results of the meeting in Brussels. The withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from the territory of Armenia is one of the strategic goals in the Armenian policy of the EU and the United States, and a variety of scenarios are being considered, including the creation of a hotbed of tension around the 102nd Russian base.

Thus, active discussion of the issues related to the Russian military base and the presence of Russian servicemen in Armenia has already started now, long before the expiry of the agreement on the stay of the 102nd military base of the Russian Federation on the territory of Armenia.

The EU and Armenia discussed the need to reduce Yerevan's dependence on Russian military equipment and technology, as well as the need to reduce dependence on Russian-provided military education and training.

These discussions between the EU and Armenia include not only military equipment and technology, but also defence education programmes, and point to joint efforts by the Euro-Atlantic bloc and Yerevan to "cleanse" its military structures of pro-Russian elements and gradually eradicate the Russian military school from Armenian military traditions. As part of the process, the EU aims to actively influence the formation of the personnel and military-technical potential of the Armenian Armed Forces.

This process has already been launched, and in this context it is worth recalling the statement of the Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan in an interview with Public TV that in 2020-24 Russia's share in Armenia's arms supply agreements dropped from 96 per cent to less than 10 per cent.

The EU and Armenia will cooperate to ensure the long-term presence of the EU Mission to Armenia (EUMA) and expand its functions through a significant increase in staff.

The media have already repeatedly reported that the EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) will not be limited to monitoring (read intelligence) functions but has the potential to become a full-fledged military base for NATO countries (or one specific country). The planned significant increase in the number of the mission's personnel and the expansion of its functions strengthen this prospect. In addition, as U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien said the other day, Washington has not yet discussed joining the EU mission but does not rule out this possibility in the future.

This development of events will unambiguously lead to an increased extra-regional presence on the territory of Armenia, which, in turn, is rightly perceived in Azerbaijan as a deepening of intelligence operations under the auspices of the observation mission. These measures, along with the aforementioned information about bases and border guards, will significantly increase tensions in the region.

The EU will assist Armenia in building defence infrastructure on its border with Azerbaijan, including engineering reinforcements.

The EU's assistance to Armenia in turning the notional, not yet agreed border with Azerbaijan into a full-fledged front line, including the construction of engineering fortifications and the creation of numerous firing positions, can hardly be characterised other than pushing Yerevan towards a new confrontation. Despite statements of support for peace initiatives on the part of Armenia and the EU, in practice such steps can be seen as creating a springboard for potential attacks against Azerbaijan. It should be recalled that Armenia has not yet renounced its constitutionally enshrined territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Any strengthening of this country without a link to its institutional renunciation of its expansionist intentions towards Azerbaijan is tantamount to inflaming the conflict and undermining the peace process.

The EU and Armenia will cooperate on border security and control issues through the border guards of the Armenian National Security Service and the European Union Agency for the Security of External Borders (Frontex).

EU-Armenia cooperation on border security through engagement with Frontex could be seen as another step against the interests of countries in the region. Frontex, the EU's border and migration management agency, plays an important role in strengthening the Commonwealth's external borders by providing control and oversight, which, according to the Brussels agreements, will be extended to Armenia's borders.

Such cooperation in the context of current geopolitical tensions is yet another attempt by the EU to reduce Russian influence in Armenia. Such actions not only support the EU's strategy to enhance its own security but also demonstrate its desire to expand its influence beyond its traditionally recognised European area of responsibility, which could provoke retaliatory actions from Russia.

EU and US member states will offer assistance to train and equip Armenia's newly established Foreign Intelligence Service, as well as enhance the capacity and training capabilities of the State Guard Service.

It is expected that Armenia will receive significant technical and expert support in this area, which will enable the newly established Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia to significantly expand its operational capabilities.

Such deepened intelligence cooperation with the EU and the US will lead to the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service becoming a Western-controlled structure. Increased dependence on Western techniques and technologies reduces the independence of Armenian intelligence, although it will increase its effectiveness at the operational level.

An EU-Armenia cyber dialogue will be launched to strengthen the strategic capacity of Armenia's Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) and Computer Security and Incident Response Team (CSIRT).

The importance of cyber security in the 21st century is undeniable, and Armenia seems to have learnt the lessons of the 2020 war by realising the level of preparedness of Azerbaijani specialists. Armenia is now counting on Europe's support, which has already been pledged. The launch of the cybersecurity dialogue is intended to strengthen the capabilities of Armenian cybersecurity professionals, which Yerevan considers critical in terms of protecting national infrastructure and ensuring Armenia's digital security.

US-EU-Armenia

The United States and the European Union will assist Armenia under the Nuclear Deactivation Programme (DNPP) in dismantling the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP). Once Metsamor is deactivated, funding will be provided for the development of new nuclear power plants.

The US and EU are clearly preparing to help Armenia strengthen its energy security through the decommissioning of the Metsamor nuclear power plant and the development of new nuclear power projects. This not only helps minimise potential environmental and technological risks associated with the ageing facility, but also aims to reduce Armenia's dependence on Russian energy resources. Such steps will undoubtedly provoke retaliation from Russia, given its significant interests in Armenia. The US and EU, well aware of the possible consequences, are actively working to provide the necessary support to Armenia.

The United States and the European Union will establish a joint military and defence task force to coordinate the implementation of Armenia's defence and security resilience programme.

The establishment of such a working group between the US/EU and Armenia is a common practice in international military cooperation. This initiative is designed to implement several activities that we have mentioned previously, including military training, infrastructure improvements, and the development of new defence technologies. The main goal of the working group is to ensure effective cooperation and implementation of the tasks set out in Armenia's military development programme.

In conclusion, we would like to emphasise a few key points. Recently, the US Ambassador to Yerevan, Kristina Kvien, announced that the Embassy will also have a military advisor who will actively cooperate with the Armenian Ministry of Defence. Armenia has also requested armoured ambulances from the US and is likely to receive them soon, which was also confirmed by Ambassador Kvien. Although, as we have already noted, on the eve of the meeting in Brussels at various levels official Baku tried to assure that there is no military component in the US-EU-Armenia negotiations from the word "absolutely". As we can see, the reality, as we warned back on 3 April, turned out to be different.

Another important point, which we have not yet mentioned, but which was also agreed upon in Brussels on April 5, should be highlighted: the EU and the United States have agreed on the supply of lethal weapons to Armenia. Moreover, deliveries of offensive weapons are expected. As a result, Yerevan will receive what the West has not even provided to Georgia and has refused to provide to Ukraine for many years.

Bringing the Armenian army into full compliance with NATO standards, ousting the Russian military and pro-Russian elements in the Armenia Armed Forces from Armenia: all these actions point to preparations for Armenia's possible accession to NATO in the medium term. At the same time, the West is opening its arms market for Armenia and is itself financing Armenia's purchase of these weapons. We will provide this information at the appropriate time.

Today, Armenia is engaged in an extremely risky game that could end in a great tragedy for it. Nikol Pashinyan is raising the geopolitical stakes in an attempt to win back what he has irrevocably lost, risking his country's stability and safety. 

Caliber.Az