Michelle Obama: the game-changer in the presidential race?
Biden's replacement, Trump's challenger

ANALYTICS  08 May 2024 - 16:12

Speculation is swirling about whether Michelle Obama could potentially replace Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate for the presidency, as reported by Der Spiegel. While some view this as mere sensationalism, the fact that such discussions are taking place in a reputable publication indicates its significance. Allegedly, the Democratic Party has initiated polls to gauge public opinion on Obama's potential candidacy.

Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that Democrats might pivot away from Biden in favour of Michelle Obama.

Indeed, Michelle Obama herself has previously said that she will never go to the polls for the reason that she considers politics a dirty business. But this could be the best PR for her in a situation where there is a clear demand in the US for a non-systemic candidate, which today is Donald Trump. If Americans are tired of the political class, the top Democrats and Republicans who control Washington, why not offer them a person who doesn't consider herself a politician at all? She can, for example, say that she did not want to run for president until the very last moment, but is now forced to enter big politics for moral reasons - because she sees no other way out for herself and intends to "save the country from Trump, an incompetent and authoritarian enemy of democracy who intends to turn the United States into a banana republic" (this is what criticism of Trump in the American media looks like today).

Furthermore, Michelle Obama's association with the perceived success of her husband's presidency could enhance her appeal to voters nostalgic for the Obama era.

Presently, the Democratic Party finds itself in a precarious position. Recent polls indicate that in the upcoming November presidential election, Biden is projected to secure 43% of the vote, trailing behind Trump, who is anticipated to garner 49%. Moreover, the unfavorability ratings for both Biden and Trump among anti-Republican voters are nearing 60%. Without altering their candidate, Democrats face a significant risk of defeat.

The 82-year-old Biden is catastrophically unpopular. First of all, Americans do not want to trust a man of such age and condition to run the country. A candidate who confuses Egypt with Brazil loses even to 77-year-old Trump. The latter is also extremely unpopular - he is followed by a trail of scandalous criminal and civil trials, including charges of sedition, he is suspected of intending to establish an autocracy, but at least he does not confuse continents. It's remarkable to consider that in the history of presidential elections in the United States, there may never have been a matchup between two such widely unpopular candidates.

Over 60 per cent of Americans, according to opinion polls, believe Biden is too old to lead America. But Trump's age also raises concerns, as does his turbulent biography. The very fact of such elections looks like a deep crisis of the American socio-political system. Today, the prevailing question on everyone's mind is how, in a country as vast as the United States, boasting a population of 330 million and renowned for its advanced technology, science, industry, and universities, no alternative candidates emerged. Isn't there a pivotal moment when we must address and repair a broken system?

Moreover, Donald Trump's rise to power in the United States is unacceptable not only to Democrats but also to a large part of Republican politicians and experts. He is trying to destroy the entire architecture of international politics that America has built up since the end of the Second World War. Trump is an opponent of NATO and advocates its abolition. Even if he does not take that step, the very fact of his administration will destroy allies' confidence in US policy. And if Biden can't stop him, why should the Democrats nominate him?

Perhaps today will see a pro- and anti-Biden battle in the Democratic Party. It is not common in the United States to bet on a loser. As a result, one can make various assumptions about the motives of the politicians interested in Biden's candidacy, and they are all rather gloomy. One theory is that Biden was initially seen as a one-term candidate, but surprised his colleagues by asking for a second term and that no one dared say "no" to the incumbent US president.

Much like their Republican counterparts, the Democratic Party often functions as a coalition of lobbyists representing various corporate interests. While some Democratic Party leaders want to preserve Biden's candidacy at all costs, even despite the high risk of defeat, their colleagues may have a different opinion. After all, big business pays politicians to provide for their promotions and campaigns in hopes of winning and getting convenient laws and government contracts, not for politicians to let elections and lobbyists' money go to waste.

For now, however, the Democrats are heading toward political suicide by insisting on Biden. Although they may secure victories in congressional elections (especially given the unpopularity of Republican anti-abortion stances among most Americans), the path to securing the presidency remains uncertain.

Caliber.Az