Anti-Russian sanctions to increase attention to Trans-Caspian Interconnector - analyst

INTERVIEWS  21 April 2022 - 11:09

In response to Russia's military action in Ukraine, many Western countries have imposed a series of anti-Russian sanctions, including the European Union's (EU) refusal from August 2022 to import Russian coal. So far, the collective Western restrictions have not affected Russian oil and gas imports, but European politicians repeatedly make similar appeals. Meanwhile, Russia holds a significant share of Europe's energy market. Experts are already saying that sanctions against Russia may provoke one of the most serious crises in history, and it will be impossible to compensate for the lost volumes.

Caliber.Az asked Russian political scientist and leading analyst of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neyzhmakov to comment on the situation.

Neyzhmakov says it should be taken into account that the public of some leading European countries, in general, supports the economic sanctions against Russia, but is more cautious about such measures in the energy sphere.

"For example, according to a survey conducted by the sociological institute Infratest dimap, 48 percent of respondents from Germany were against the ban on imports of Russian gas and oil, although support for such a measure was quite high (40 percent). According to the same study, support for another response to the Ukraine crisis - the supply of heavy weapons to Kyiv - was much higher among respondents in that country. This measure was supported by 55% of respondents. Probably, such sentiments will also influence the logic of actions of Germany in these conditions and, probably, a number of other European countries where similar tendencies are observed - at the expense of other public steps (including various forms of support to Ukraine) to avoid too drastic actions against Russia in the energy sphere, where sanctions may be "double-edged," the political scientist said.

According to the expert, in the current situation, at least the public attention of EU representatives to alternative sources of gas and relevant projects will increase.

"For example, against this background, attention will remain to the project of the Trans-Caspian Interconnector, designed to supply gas from Turkmenistan thorugh the bottom of the Caspian Sea, which could have obvious benefits for Azerbaijan. Politically, both in the EU and the U.S., such an agenda could bring political points to the more conservative forces, which would be inclined to relax environmental demands in a number of areas and take a more cautious approach to plans to decarbonize the economy. In the long run, this could be quite a winning trend for all energy-supplying states, including Azerbaijan and Russia. Moreover, not only to resolve issues in the energy sphere but also to build political relations with the EU states in the future. As a rule, the dialogue with the conservative governments of both Moscow and Baku is less problematic than with the center-left ones," our interlocutor believes.

In conclusion, M. Neyzhmakov stressed that the sanctions challenges and tensions with the EU states create additional reasons for Moscow to interact with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

"Among the relatively recent newsbreak we can recall, for example, the mentioning by Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov of the plans to launch the Istanbul-Novorossiysk sea line or the remarks of the First Deputy General Director of Russian Railways Sergey Pavlov about the prospects of the North-South transport corridor," the Russian analyst summed up

Caliber.Az