Russia-Ukraine war and Iran's concerns
Are empires merging or separating?

ANALYTICS  19 May 2022 - 16:30

Almost immediately after Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, the slogan "Stop War" appeared on the wall of the Russian embassy in Iran. In addition, a group of young people gathered outside the Ukrainian embassy in Iran to support Ukraine and protest against Russia's "special operation". However, the Iranian government's reaction to the "special operation" did not differ much from public opinion.

Shortly after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russian President Putin called Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and, as stated in the Kremlin's official press release, explained the goals of the "military operation". The Iranian president, in a conversation with Putin, clearly outlined his position on this issue. Raisi stated that "the expansion of NATO poses a serious threat to the stability and security of independent states in the region".

The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that Iran hopes for a "peaceful solution to the problem" and did not forget to emphasize that "the current crisis was caused by the inflammatory actions of NATO". The position of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i is also clear - the ayatollah was also quick to blame the West.

"We are against any war and support a ceasefire in Ukraine," he said and added that "the root of the crisis in Ukraine is the policy of the United States, and Ukraine is becoming its victim". At the same time, Khamene'i made a very significant remark: "The lesson of Ukraine for the international community convinces that the so-called shield in the form of Western countries does not work and is just a 'mirage', which increases distrust in the world towards the United States and the West."

Meanwhile, in the actions of Iran on the Ukrainian issue in the international arena, one could notice the desire to maintain a balance. This is indicated by the fact that when adopting the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia, Tehran abstained from voting. It is worth noting here that, given the presence of numerous ethnic groups in the country, Tehran treats the problems of nationalism with great caution. In other words, Iran does not recognize Crimea as Russian, but at the same time supports Moscow's narrative that "the West is evil, and its interference is the root of all problems". On this issue, Iran, like Russia, expresses its dissatisfaction with the way the international system works and looks at the world from a similar position. That is, both Moscow and Tehran are looking forward to the end of the multipolar world and the end of the geopolitical superiority of the West. Like Russia, Iran considers itself a separate civilization, which must not only be recognized by external players, but also provide a suitable geopolitical space for the spread of influence. Moreover, both Russia and Iran very clearly define their spheres of influence. If the Russian Federation sees the territory of the former USSR as their sphere of influence, then for Iran it [sphere of influence] is the neighbouring states stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon plus Yemen. The two former imperial powers are further bringing together overlapping strategic interests, such as in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. In general, Iran views the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity that, if successful, could hasten the end of the liberal world order.

Nevertheless, the ideal scenario for Tehran would be a blitzkrieg in which Russia would achieve its main goals. A protracted war is not beneficial to Iran, and even to some extent carries certain risks. Firstly, the military actions, which have been going on for almost three months, indicate that the liberal order was not in such a sharp decline, which Moscow and Tehran had hoped for. Iran began to realize that Russia's calls for a new era in international relations were far from reality. The failed war also shows Iran that the collective West still possesses considerable strength and, despite the existing differences, the ability to unite quickly to defend the existing order based on international law. Secondly, the West demonstrates the ability to make significant economic sacrifices just to punish Russia. In other words, Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine has actually strengthened the West and made it more united than ever. And strengthening the liberal order is the last thing Iran wants, given its own uneasy relations with the collective West.

However, Iran's biggest fear is that the course of the war in Ukraine and the reaction of the US and the EU to Russian aggression will negatively affect the ongoing negotiations on the revival of the nuclear deal. Iran fears that a defeated Russia will jeopardize these negotiations. Therefore, despite Russia's rhetorical support, Iran is trying not to overestimate its strength. There is currently no definite clarity on Moscow's long-term goals in Ukraine. Furthermore, Iran sees that Moscow's actions lead to the opposite effect.

Moreover, Russia's encouragement of separatist entities is a very sensitive topic in Iran.

Therefore, Iran is likely to refrain from supporting Russia. Tehran will also refrain from supporting it on international platforms, as long as the unfavourable military situation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine and the West's ability to act unanimously serve as a warning to the Islamic Republic that the West can unite against it.

Caliber.Az