Real Talk: Baku and Ankara warn Pashinyan
The time for Armenian populism is over

ANALYTICS  11 August 2022 - 11:29

Baku, Ankara, and Moscow are nearly in unison issued a serious warning to Armenia. Everybody is tired and wants some concrete steps. They all have common plans that Pashinyan is trying to thwart.

Yerevan has reached its new peak of action profanity which even had to be corrected through the efforts of the "Revenge" operation.

The day before Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov accused Armenia of hindering the process of unblocking communications in the South Caucasus under various pretexts. Bayramov added, however, that he did not rule out the possibility of a certain consensus.

"We notice that our positions converge to a certain extent, but if there was a sincere intention (of Armenia), this issue would have been solved long ago. There are no open questions and no big problems here, so we perceive this as artificial stalling. At the same time, the work that Azerbaijan is carrying out on its territory testifies to the seriousness of our intentions," Bayramov told the Turkish media.

The Minister also stressed that Azerbaijan will not allow the presence of illegal Armenian armed groups on its sovereign territories and is waiting for Armenia to take concrete actions.

Earlier Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also warned Armenia against reigniting the conflict.

"Once again we warn Armenia not to get involved in new provocations," he said in his opening remarks at the 13th Turkish Ambassadors' Conference in Ankara.

And further, Cavusoglu clarified that it referred to the post-conflict period and the possibility of peace in the region. "Today we are talking about regional peace and cooperation, not about occupied lands, displaced persons, and conflict," he said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was no less unambiguous in his statements about the situation with Armenia. Recently he has repeatedly emphasized his country's stance on the post-war tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the dialogue between them, stressing Ankara's close attention to this process.

"It is important that Armenia fulfill its obligations under the trilateral statement as soon as possible," the Turkish leader told reporters following a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi.

Erdogan and Cavusoglu, the highest ranking Turkish politicians' joining the active discussion with Yerevan, and their clear statements signal only one thing: everything has been discussed and conclusions drawn about the situation in Armenia and the Turkish officials are addressing Yerevan on behalf of Moscow as well. It is more than likely that Putin and Erdogan clarified and agreed on their positions on Karabakh at their last meeting in Sochi. Putin and Erdogan do not have controversial topics at the moment, with the exception, perhaps, of the construction of a factory for the assembly of "Bayraktars" in Ukraine and the frozen settlement of Idlib.

In fact, Moscow does not need disagreements, and all of its recent statements, as well as the logic of geopolitical events, show that Russia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan hold a common view on the importance of the prompt implementation of the provisions of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020. Everyone has their own interests here, and therefore the most painless implementation of the points of the document is suitable for all. This is ascertained by Kremlin's attitude to the recent "Revenge" operation in Karabakh. The Kremlin has practically refrained from any detailed rhetoric on this issue. Yerevan has brazenly begun to harass Moscow with its indignation that Russian peacekeepers are almost indifferent to what is happening. Their commanders acted quite wisely and decided not to interfere in the Azerbaijani operation that was a response to the murder of the Azerbaijani soldier. Because it was clear - Azerbaijani troops were acting on their own land. They made it clear to the Armenian side that the time for its populism was over.

After the Azerbaijani army operation was over, Vladimir Putin himself spoke to Pashinyan by phone, in order to damp Yerevan's claims. He seemed to have brought Pashinyan to his senses and clarified the situation. The simple truth is that Moscow needs and values the launch of the Zangazur corridor as a route, which can to some extent help to solve the problem of export-import in a situation when in view of sanctions movement of cargo via other transit ways is extremely limited.

Erdogan is also ready for the launch of Zangazur - it is interesting for Türkiye both economically and politically. This is also a signal that Türkiye can switch over to a closer and more trustful dialogue with Yerevan to establish diplomatic relations. "No Zangazur, no relations," Cavusoglu stated very unequivocally a few weeks ago.

Thus, now almost all the three main players in the region send open messages to Pashinyan. Only a short-sighted politician would not hear them or underestimate their importance. The fate of Armenia now depends on Yerevan's right decisions. This is not a rant, but a reality. Pashinyan should just avoid playing games with the pretense of negotiations again, or Azerbaijan will have to resort to force to tame Yerevan's ambitions. Pashinyan should not act on the orders of any external players, for example, Washington, which also seems to be in favor of a peaceful dialogue between Baku and Yerevan, but with one cunning reservation - if the United States plays a leading role in the process. And the perfect harmony in the positions of Baku, Ankara, and Moscow is of no interest for Washington by default - there is no gap to squeeze in and play its game.

As for the crucial moment, in particular, the launch of the Zangazur corridor, the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Jeyhun Bayramov clearly stated the day before and noted during his conversation with Turkish journalists in Ankara that Azerbaijan, in accordance with an agreement with Iran, began construction of the first of the planned bridges over the Araz River. This gives Azerbaijan an alternative to communicating with Nakhchivan through Iran, that is, bypassing Armenia.

"It will be implemented whether Armenia wants it or not. This is a chance for Armenia not to stay away from regional development projects. It will make the decision itself. If Yerevan does not make the right decision, it will cause the greatest damage to itself," Bayramov added. The message is as clear as possible.

In this sense, Pashinyan may even experience a certain "moment of glory." Ankara, Baku, and Moscow, not to mention the EU, are now addressing him with proposals. Erdogan even called his phone conversation with Pashinyan "constructive". According to the Turkish president, if Armenia correctly perceives the developments and responds to the sincere calls of Azerbaijan and Türkiye, the region will achieve stability in a short time.

Nevertheless, even without any ultimatums, there is evident irritation in the words of all the parties and an "if" union, which as a rule precedes a potential condition. In this case, it means "if Armenia doesn't wise up and get its act together". That is, all the warnings are the last ones for Yerevan, and in case of another delay and fooling around, no one will let it go any further.

Caliber.Az