Mission Impossible: Will US Special Envoy Philip Reeker be received in Baku?
Diplomat Fikrat Sadikhov's commentary for Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  12 September 2022 - 17:30

The visit of the US Senior Adviser for Caucasus Affairs Philip Reeker to our region was perhaps the most controversial US initiative for Baku. First of all, because Washington, as if not hearing Baku's objections, promotes Reeker in another negotiating capacity – as a representative of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Meanwhile, the US representative has been in the South Caucasus for several days but has not yet uttered a word about a visit to Azerbaijan. Whether such a visit will take place at all and what strategy Baku intends to pursue in communication with this gentleman is still a big question.

However, Reeker is happily and warmly welcomed in Armenia. Of course, in the excited and hypertrophied imagination of Armenians, this American is a kind of bright image, almost a father-saviour who may bring Karabakh back to the Armenian separatism by some magic combination and raising the issue of "status". Or at least he can slow down Azerbaijan's initiatives on Karabakh by pressuring Baku with his American charisma. That is why Reeker is welcomed in Yerevan so hospitably.

He visits our neighbours with an ambitious programme. Reeker was received solemnly by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself. According to Armenian media reports, Pashinyan congratulated him on his appointment to a responsible post and welcomed his visit to the region. The Armenian prime minister went on to stress the important role of the United States "as a co-chairing country of the OSCE Minsk Group in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process." And he even "stressed the importance of restoring the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship and using the latter's experience in the context of a comprehensive settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem."

Judging by the information from Armenian media, the list of discussed topics was quite extensive, and Reecker, as it turns out, like a chief supervisor from the US, oversees almost all the spheres of the South Caucasus. It is known, for example, that during the cordial conversation the Armenian prime minister and the US envoy touched upon the "humanitarian problems, which emerged as a result of the 44-day war." The need for the immediate repatriation of Armenian "prisoners of war" and other detainees, and "the preservation of the Armenian cultural and religious heritage in the territories taken under Azerbaijani control" was stressed. Views were also reportedly exchanged on the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, regional stability, and other security-related topics.

But Reeker decided to do more than just that. He also saw his mission in intervening in the Armenian-Turkish dialogue, the details of which were conveniently disclosed to him by Armenian figures. Ruben Rubinyan, the deputy speaker of the Armenian National Assembly and Armenia's special representative for the Armenian-Turkish normalisation process, had told Mr. Reeker everything and shared it with him. So he is now aware of "the current state of the Armenia-Türkiye normalisation process" and the position taken by Yerevan in this regard.

It is quite remarkable that a few days ago Pashinyan said in Vladivostok that "Armenia intends to build a dialogue with Türkiye with the help of Russia". Apparently, they seem to be scared to make it directly. Somehow the contacts between the top officials - a phone conversation between Erdogan and Pashyan - must not have suited them, if Yerevan has decided to hand the issue over to Moscow's control. Then Reeker got involved as well. Doesn't all these strange gestures by Yerevan look like a satirical play?

Talking to Caliber.Az, political scientist, and diplomat Fikret Sadikhov says it is hard to believe that Washington has not heard the stance of Azerbaijan concerning the OSCE Minsk Group, as official Baku has repeatedly voiced it at international platforms and during bilateral contacts. That is probably why, in the political scientist's opinion, Reeker's status sounds so vague and is literally split: he is both the US special representative for the South Caucasus and the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

According to Sadikhov, the reason for such activity by the US is quite clear: it is a desire to be present in the region, to have control over the situation, and not to fall behind other leading regional players, in particular Russia and Türkiye.

However, the political analyst emphasises that it is difficult to imagine that the newly appointed US special envoy on the South Caucasus will be able to bring any novelty in the final solution of all questions of the post-conflict situation.

"Unfortunately, we see that the leading countries, instead of evaluating the situation objectively, focus on the rights of ethnic Armenians in Karabakh, and are rather touchy about their future status. Apparently, this encourages Armenia, which forgets that it signed almost an act of surrender on November 10, 2020, and shies away from steps to implement this document," Sadikhov said.

The expert believes that it is possible that Reeker will also come to Baku and will be received at the proper level, but this does not mean that they agree with all his recommendations and precepts. However, this will be a good opportunity for Baku to express a strong consistent position on the situation in our region, the expert believes.

"As for the US curation of Armenian-Turkish relations, I think that no one, primarily Türkiye, absolutely needs it. Armenia seems to need it. And if it wants to continue suffocating in conditions of closed borders with Türkiye, let it continue listening to the voices of its 'big brothers'," Sadikhov summed up.

Caliber.Az