“The negotiating position of Armenia and its patrons will melt over time”
Farhad Mammadov's arguments

POLITICS  28 September 2022 - 13:10

Political analyst, director of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov in his Telegram channel commented on the issues of the peace treaty to be concluded by Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“The Western anthill has begun to stir... The United States at the level of the head of the State Department, the Pentagon and the national security adviser are involved in the process of Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization... France is investing its contribution at the level of the president of this country. The Greeks arrived in time, not without the call of the United States and France.

At the same time, the discussed agenda is not divided into separate blocks (peace treaty, unblocking, border, humanitarian part), everything is discussed within the framework of a single process. The reason for this situation is that all topics are interconnected, and on the other hand, there are no solutions for any of the topics.

The cornerstone topic of the talks is the territorial integrity of the countries. At the same time, when this topic concerned Azerbaijan, the USA and Co. were silent, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs supported aggressor country. When the threat to the territorial integrity reached Armenia, everything came out, everyone got worried ... well, God in person with them! We will always remind them of this.

The activity of the US and France is Armenia's last hope, after which decisions must be made - namely, a peace treaty. Generally speaking, at this stage, the leadership of Armenia and its patrons are striving to get at least some kind of “status” for the Armenian population of Karabakh (not even the territory), mentioning Karabakh in at least some form in the peace treaty and representing the West (at least observation on the conditional border, maximum in Karabakh).

This is, as it were, their maximum negotiating position, which will melt over time ...

Azerbaijan has a principled position that Karabakh is an internal matter, and a peace treaty implies an interstate agenda...

The current stage of negotiations with Armenia, along with the topics of the directly peaceful agenda, which are much talked about, should also clarify other topics that remain open:

⁃ complete withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces of Armenia from the territory of Azerbaijan;

⁃ regulation of the activities of supply infrastructures that pass from Armenia or their closure;

⁃ Armenia's refusal to finance the military junta, which usurped power over the Armenian population of Karabakh...

These topics are important from the point of view of changing the situation on earth, as we witnessed the signing of documents that were not subsequently implemented,” Farhad Mammadov wrote.

Caliber.Az