Three options for Armenia's future: peace treaty, dissolution, disappearance
Russian political pundit on Yerevan's games

ANALYTICS  28 December 2022 - 10:45

Armenia is again picking on Moscow, with the purpose to transform this manner of communication into a permanent one. Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan's brusque response to Sergei Lavrov's criticism and Pashinyan's constant complaints about Russian peacekeepers are clearly more than just a series of diplomatic outbursts. Is Yerevan really trying to establish some new trends in its dialogue with Russia, when Moscow will forever have to respond to Yerevan's claims? Is the pug really no longer afraid to bark at the elephant?

Lavrov made remarks concerning the strange behavior of the Armenian side at a meeting with the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. The planned trilateral meeting became bilateral precisely because of Yerevan's unwillingness to engage in constructive dialogue, which caused Moscow's edgy reaction. Lavrov immediately made it clear that Russia tends to view Yerevan's failure to participate in the talks as a serious omission. This was both a political move and in terms of diplomatic etiquette, which, according to Lavrov, Armenia clearly disregarded.

However, Yerevan has not learned its lesson but has instead begun to escalate the situation. "And I express surprise at the surprise of my distinguished colleague Sergei Lavrov," Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told Radio Liberty.

Asked to assess Lavrov's statement that incidents will continue between the sides if one side refuses to participate in the pre-agreed talks each time, the Armenian Foreign Minister boorishly said that Yerevan had clearly stated the reason and need for postponing the meeting.

The recent exchanges between Russia and Armenia have borne little resemblance to the previous format of a dialogue between Moscow and Yerevan, where 'barking' at Russia was considered almost suicidal. However, times are changing and Armenia seems to have decided to adopt new trends. However, there is also nothing surprising here - Armenians merely demonstrate one of their best-known qualities: the principle of rank ingratitude towards their master when they don't get what they want. And Armenia has, as you know, a lot of claims to Russia, which is eternally indebted to it. And even the "warm meeting" between Pashinyan and Putin at the informal CIS summit, at first sight, does not efface the Premier's recriminations against Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, in particular, as was stated recently, "their failure to perform their duties". And if Moscow, gritting its teeth, still listens to Pashinyan and Mirzoyan's objections, it does not mean it will do so forever.

When diplomats openly express their dissatisfaction with each other, this is an indicator of a serious crisis. Political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan told News Armenia, commenting on the latest statements by the Armenian and Russian Foreign Ministers on Ararat Mirzoyan's refusal to meet with his counterparts from Russia and Azerbaijan in Moscow.

So what is the reason for the current rather tense format of Russian-Armenian relations, that Yerevan is so openly showing its nature? Is it saying that Armenia is ready to deny its commitments to its Kremlin masters, practicing some new roles?

In the opinion of Tatiana Poloskova, Doctor of Political Science, State Advisor of the First Class of the Russian Federation, Russian political scientist, Mirzoyan's statements to Lavrov are striking not at all in diplomatic vocabulary, but at times in the outright lexicon of the Armenian Foreign Minister.

"Some hints in a boorish style, another Armenian dirty trick, etc. You can't make out half of the text at all what it's about. If the Armenian chief diplomat wanted to insult his Russian colleague, he could do it one-on-one. Why these public squabbles, like in an Armenian bazaar? In Moscow, they often joke: 'It's not bad that we have many Armenians in the media and government, it's bad that they quarrel with each other.' Here is another one," the political scientist noted.

In her opinion, Mirzoyan should not even be reproached for this offensive behavior, "as he has a very rough idea of diplomacy".

"He has no special education, neither does he have proper experience in this field before he got into the foreign minister's chair. He's like the Chukotka reindeer breeder from the old anecdote - what he sees is what he sings," said Poloskova.

In her opinion, Russia is currently going through one of the most problematic periods in its history. A blitzkrieg in Ukraine has not happened and definitely will not happen. The situation inside the country is turbulent, no matter what the official media say. And why shouldn't the Armenian donkey, as the well-known fable says, kick the badly wounded Russian lion? That's what Yerevan is demonstrating.

"The level of Armenian gratitude and the short memory of the good done is also well known to us. We in Russia are not used to it. As for Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, and the like, it is a typical plot, when a concubine, having squeezed all the juices from the previous master, rushes to look for others.

I understood and said it all a long time ago about today's Armenia, and about those who, at various power platforms in Moscow, are trying to make a profit out of the suffering of this country and the despair of its swiftly departing population. Armenians were given a chance to create Armenia in the territory of Azerbaijan, which sheltered them. That chance was missed. And I am afraid that with such staff potential in the Armenian Foreign Ministry there will be no second chance," Poloskova also added.

According to our interlocutor, official Yerevan has never stopped its contacts with the US, with its special services. According to Russian political scientists, there will be no future in Armenia unless they make a clear choice.

"Either Armenia enters into a full-fledged dialogue with Azerbaijan, signs a peace treaty, and will continue to exist peacefully. But Armenia does not seem to want this. The second option is that Armenia will not exist as a country, and the signs of dissolution are already evident. And the third option is what the Azerbaijani authorities recently announced, I mean the concept of the return of territories. Yerevan is Azerbaijani land. And the Americans will not help them here, Armenia is not a piece that America will fight for," summed up the political scientist.

Caliber.Az