Azerbaijan's response to international bankruptcy
Serhey Bohdan's views on President Aliyev's January theses

ANALYTICS  16 January 2023 - 16:22

Watching the superpowers and their allies leading the planet to global carnage, some decide to join the fight, while others stay aside. However, the solution to global problems lies not in war, but in finding alternatives to the rotten world order on the regional and planetary levels. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently spoke about alternatives in his big interview with Azerbaijani TV channels.

These alternatives are linked to the main directions that the Azerbaijani leadership is probably guided by in the conduct of the country's foreign policy:

1. The foreign policy situation is important for a favourable development inside the country. Therefore: "The main direction and goal of our foreign policy are to create a more favourable environment for our country at the international level so that processes in the country continue in a positive direction."

There are many different conclusions from this imperative, starting with the simplest one: to develop successfully, it is good to be neighbours with prosperous, dynamic countries. It is much more advantageous for Azerbaijan to border not with today's poorer Armenia, which is in isolation and is losing productive power, but with Armenia which is prospering in cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye (it cannot be otherwise - the experience of the whole Armenian statehood is an example). The same imperative also leads to more ambitious plans for the reorganisation of the Caucasus through new logistics, transit, and cooperation between the countries of the region, as well as participation in the reorganisation of the world through its international position, its work within major organisations and Eurasian transit.

2. The state has not just the right, it has the obligation to defend itself, this is the purpose of its creation and existence, the proverbial raison d'être. As Aliyev stressed, "all possible risks and threats are formed outside our country. In order to protect us from these threats, of course, foreign policy, including military policy, has a role to play."

Foreign policy in the era of imperialism cannot do without a force component. There are no options. Face it, moral rightness and ethical standards are, alas, determined by those who control global agenda through a network of media, NGOs, and Western "thought factories" rather than a pluralistic discussion of universal norms of humanity and their application - remember how Gorbachev's calls for "new thinking" ended. The other option - relying on distant allies to protect us in time of need - also fails because it almost always means giving up sovereignty and making questionable moral choices. In addition, such alliances tend to be ineffective and too unwieldy to respond to all security threats.

Has Saudi Arabia's close alliance with the West helped it defend itself against the Houthis or Iranian "special operations"? Did it help Ukraine against Russian "special operations"? Rather the opposite, as Kyiv has had to look to its Western allies for years to delay restoring its territorial integrity. It could, if not defend, then restore - given the enormous military potential of the Ukrainian industry (from missiles to world-class ships, aircraft, and tanks!), excellent in-house personnel, largely still Soviet-era, Kyiv was able to independently make the price of Russian adventure unacceptable to the Kremlin. History proves it because in the 1990s Kyiv did that: then former officers of the Soviet security services, using Ukraine's own capabilities, quickly made it clear to the Kremlin that its attempts to snatch Crimea away would prove too expensive a venture. One of those was KGB General Oleksandr Skypalsky - who, incidentally, was then directly referred to as the future "Ukrainian Ataturk" - and who clearly stated the line - "if Ukraine does not want to have a front in the Crimea, it must create one in the Caucasus" - and Ukrainian volunteers went to the Caucasus. As a result, the Kremlin quickly abandoned both its claims to Crimea and Sevastopol and its support for separatists and pro-Russian chauvinists. But then new trends set in and instead of strengthening the state's defence capability and security, the focus was on consolidating a mythical "identity", de-Sovietising it, and pulling decayed historical skeletons out of their graves - the consequences were not long in coming in the form of Russia's invasion of the weakened state.

3. The secret of success in the international arena is cooperation. As Aliyev said, "our policy is always designed for cooperation. If someone asked us for help, we tried to provide it, to make more friends".

In order to liberate the lands seized by Armenian extremists, it was important for Azerbaijan not only to create an effective army and military-industrial complex but also to convey its arguments to the international community. And this was not done because Azerbaijan was weak and depended on the opinions of others — by no means, by the end of the 2010s, it could well crush the separatists, neglecting this opinion. But this would be a single success with dubious consequences in the long run and not a sustainable foreign policy strategy. The latter requires thinking about long-term prospects.

The words of the Russian Emperor Alexander III about the army and navy being the only allies of the state were utter nonsense. History proved him wrong when, a couple of decades later, his own son brought the vast empire to ruin. Alas, even today one hears this quote as an example of wisdom in the Russian establishment, although the results of such an approach manifest themselves all the time. Russia's achievements in the war with Ukraine are an example of where it leads - even China and Belarus are in no hurry to help the Kremlin in this seemingly "anti-Western" undertaking, and it is no wonder that this undertaking (with questionable ethical foundations, to put it mildly) stalled from the start. Compare this to the approach of the Western powers, above all the US, which with all its might could have crushed both Afghanistan and Iraq in its time (even twice in 1991 and 2003!) and many other countries alone. But for some reason, they always tried to do it differently, in cooperation with other states, and if they could not achieve it through existing structures, they created another "coalition of willing". And the result of this approach is also evident in the form of objectively existing global hegemony. Therefore, Azerbaijan seeks friends not out of weakness but out of an understanding of this important nuance - even with military superiority, international support and understanding should not be neglected.

4. The development path imposed by the West is not the only possible one for humanity, and war with the West is not a solution to Western hegemony and the neglect of the interests of most countries and peoples of the world.

A large part of humanity remains, in fact, outside the "collective West" and its opposing alliances, i.e. it has not joined the global confrontation. And it is the more active entry of these "others" into the arena that can change the world. As the Azerbaijani leader noted, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) has been an important platform for Azerbaijan to pursue its policy and it has not been easy, given that "there are countries in this organisation that are not very friendly with each other. But they unanimously supported Azerbaijan twice - both when we were elected and when our chairmanship was extended". Baku, for its part, has made serious efforts to reinvigorate a potentially powerful NAM association - without any big words, by holding a summit, a special session of the UN General Assembly, and by providing humanitarian assistance to more than 80 countries.

The leadership role is not easy and requires serious efforts, but it provides support in times of need. Moreover, one should realize the niche in which the Azerbaijani side started to work - it is not just an association of 120 (!) countries, in which the majority of the world's population lives, it is a community of states that has outlined a universal ethical program, which is based on a refusal to accept paternalism and dictates of self-appointed world leaders - no matter where they come from, from the East or West. It is an association that initially, under Nasser, Nehru, Sukarno, and Zhou Enlai, could have changed the world balance of power, but, having lost its leaders, has faced stagnation, especially since the end of the Cold War.

At one time this group of countries was called the "Third World", with time giving it a contemptuous connotation. But it is this group of countries, by joining forces, that can make the world a different and better place for everyone, not just for the "golden billion". According to Aliyev, "All countries have seen this leadership in the example of Azerbaijan, and the policy we have set should be continued after us. That is, we must not allow the Non-Aligned Movement to fall back to the previous level, where it is not mentioned anywhere, it is not taken into account, we have to speak openly".

The prototype of the NAM emerged at a time of awakening of non-European countries and peoples who started to struggle against European domination after 1917. The First Congress of the Peoples of the East in Baku in September 1920 was an important stage in the organizational development of that solidarity. For all its controversial and contradictory nature, it became the greatest event in world history, as legendary politicians from Ho Chi Minh to Enver Pasha participated in it and said "No!" to the then-arrogant superpowers and colonial empires. Therefore, Azerbaijan's accession to NAM in 2011 was, in a sense, a logical continuation of that congress.

5. The time has come for a new world order. As President Aliyev said, "today, especially after the Russian-Ukrainian war, the creation of a new order is already inevitable, there is no other way because traditional institutions do not work effectively and will not work in the future".

The Second Karabakh War and the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict coincided, drawing a line under both the tottering regional order created by Armenian expansionism and the oppressive world order engineered by the West at the start of this decade. It turned out to be highly symbolic. In the South Caucasus, Armenian ethnic nationalism first achieved ostensible success through the seizure of foreign lands, but in the end destroyed the future of the Armenian people, undermining the Armenian state and its position in the region. In the world, however, in an interesting way, the West has engaged in a hot war, not with a systemic enemy like China, or Iran and its ayatollahs and IRGC. The "collective West" was confronted by the Russian state, which, however much one might say to the contrary, was built not after the Soviets, but after Western models of peripheral capitalism. Since the 1990s, the Russian establishment has worked closely with the West to build a system that remains in Russia today.

Therefore, not only Azerbaijan, but all peoples of the world have the right to ask the morally bankrupt rulers in the East and in the West and to demand a new, more just, and peaceful world.

6. The restructuring of the UN is one of the roads to a new peace. President Aliyev said that Azerbaijan itself has realised for itself the impotence of this organisation, inter alia by the example of four Security Council resolutions on Karabakh, but this impotence and emasculation of meanings is universal. In particular, "the format of the Security Council is already outdated and history shows this. It came into being 80 years ago, after the Second World War. Now there is actually a Third World War going on. So, of course, there should be new members in the Security Council".

More specifically, Baku wanted to secure one permanent seat on the UN Security Council for a Muslim country to be nominated by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and another one for the NAM presidency. Indeed, who is more responsible with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war, the current permanent members of the UN Security Council or Türkiye that is trying in the darkest of darkness to find a way out of the bloody deadlock that the Western (and not without the active participation of the Russian establishment) post-Cold War world order has brought upon its neighboring countries and peoples?

7. The void left by the clash of global players has to be filled. The Azerbaijani leader stressed: "The world has become polarised and the confrontation is deepening. I see the rift between the West and Russia will deepen. Of course, the outcome of the war will have an impact on this after it is over. But this confrontation and mistrust is a long-term process. Naturally, this void, this vacuum cannot remain. Who can be the centre of power here? I believe that one of the members of the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation".

Speaking about the world order, superpowers and blocs created by them tend to speak only about themselves as active participants in its creation and maintenance, which makes the rest of the people passive masses and expendable material. In other words, they are working diligently to create the impression and even the belief that without them, there can be no order at all. This is the old rhetoric of Western imperialism (and Eastern imperialism as well, because it itself evolved out of imitation and direct copying of Western imperialism) - remember how the British said that without them on the Indian subcontinent the people there are unable to do anything like small children or savage beasts.

Unfortunately, both NAM and OIC were marginalised and sometimes openly harassed by the superpowers, who did not allow them to rebuild the world. The current bankruptcy of the world players, who brought the planet to the brink of a world war and nuclear apocalypse, is not just an opportunity for the NAM and the OIC, it is a direct moral obligation for them to finally get involved in bringing order to our common planet.

In conclusion, it is further worth emphasizing that the theses listed above are important references to universally relevant concepts and themes. In other words, Azerbaijan is in favour of solving peace problems by the countries and peoples concerned - and this emphasis on sovereign action cannot fail to impress any self-respecting nation and state. Therefore, the end of Azerbaijan's chairmanship in NAM does not mean the end of this course, but rather the continuation of it by other means. Baku has every moral right to do so; Azerbaijan has shown its readiness and ability, even through the use of force, to patiently seek a common future for all.

Caliber.Az