What imperils Russia-Israel ties?
Shereshevskiy's think piece

ANALYTICS  25 April 2023 - 18:04

The classified Pentagon and US intelligence documents that were recently leaked and appeared on the Internet sketch out potential scenarios in which Israel would supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, CNN reported.

According to CNN, the document, called "Pathways to providing lethal assistance to Ukraine" says “Israel will likely consider providing lethal aid under increased US pressure".

Another reason is said to be the possible deterioration of relations between the country and Russia.

The media also reported on another leaked document. It allegedly says that if Russia's military contingent in Syria continues to allow Iran to supply arms to the country to turn its territory into a military springboard against Israel, the latter may request US assistance in conducting operations against the Iranians in Syria. And if the US agrees, Israel might give the go-ahead to supply its own lethal weapons to Ukraine in return.

First of all, it's worth understanding what kind of weapons we could be talking about. Israel is one of the most advanced high-tech and defence industries in the world. Its Harop kamikaze drones and Spike anti-tank missile systems played an important role in the 44-day war, contributing to Azerbaijan's victory. Today, the Spike system is one of the most vital components of South Korea's defence. Israel also specializes in other high-precision missile systems, and its Iron Dome air-defence system is just about the only one in the world that can deal with massive attacks from unguided rockets and missiles. So, the US may indeed be interested in supplying such weapons to its ally Ukraine.

But the reasoning behind some of the allegedly leaked Pentagon and US intelligence documents is highly questionable. At the same time, the arguments outlined in other documents cited by CNN seem to be true.

A Russian contingent has been present in Syria since September 2015. Iran, together with Russia, has been providing aid to Bashar al-Assad's regime. All these years, Iran has been moving militias and weapons into Syria, including high-precision missiles and drones. The latter are intended for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah group, which is also fighting on Assad's side in Syria, while also controlling neighbouring Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah are close allies and are Israel's main adversaries in the region. That is why the Israeli Air Force has been bombing Syria for years, destroying Iranian arms convoys and Iranian and Hezbollah military bases (a campaign called "war between wars"). All the while, Russian air defences, despite the Iranians' anger, have not fired on Israeli planes. For its part, Israel has not shelled Russian troops in Syria, has not supplied lethal weapons to Ukraine and has not joined anti-Russian sanctions. Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's current prime minister, is the architect of this agreement. Why would he violate it, and what does Syria have to do with it?

Meanwhile, there are far more serious factors that could lead to the breakdown of the deal between Russia and Israel and the supply of Israeli lethal weapons to Ukraine. First of all, they have to do with Iran's nuclear programme, which could allow it to build nuclear weapons in the next year or two. Israel has repeatedly stated that it considers Iranian attempts to develop nuclear weapons to be a red line and will not allow it. There is little doubt that Israel is now preparing for a major air force operation to destroy Iran's nuclear industry. In addition, Israeli drones are occasionally launching sensitive strikes against Iranian secret sites. There is a distinct smell of Iranian-Israeli war in the air.

A joint operation with the Americans is also possible. It is all the more likely because Israel is unlikely to have the means to destroy the underground facilities of the Iranians, which are part of their nuclear programme. In exchange for cooperation on the issue and assistance in destroying the Iranian enrichment plant at Mount Fordo, the US could demand the transfer of Israeli weapons to Ukraine.

Under these circumstances, the Iranians are talking about their intentions to rearm in order to respond to this threat. In particular, they are talking about plans to buy Su-35 combat aircraft and S-400 air defence systems from Russia. These are modern types of weapons, capable of qualitatively improving Iran's military capabilities to repel Israeli raids. Moreover, all this is happening against the backdrop of a rapprochement between Russia and Iran, two countries in a situation of tough confrontation with the Western bloc.

And here, too, there could be a situation where Israel could break the agreement with Russia. The Israelis have already effectively told the Russians - if you continue to build up Iran's capacity by pumping it with the latest weapons, we will do the same with Ukraine. Political columnist Jonathan Lis writes about it citing the Israeli high-ranking sources in the pages of the authoritative Israeli newspaper Haaretz. According to him, the reasons why Israel will decide to start supplying arms to Ukraine in the future might be the Russian arms supplies to Iran, assistance from Russia to Iran in its uranium enrichment programme to weapons grade (Israel has now come to the conclusion that there will be no such assistance), pressure from the West, especially the US, Washington's offer in exchange for supplies of Israeli arms to Ukraine to help Israel deal a blow to Iran and its nuclear programme.

According to Lis, Israeli officials believe that increased military cooperation between Iran and Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine could significantly worsen relations between Moscow and Tel Aviv, potentially jeopardising Israel's desired security coordination with Russia in neighbouring Syria. They note that Israel should acknowledge that its ties with Moscow are weakening and that in such circumstances it may reconsider assisting Ukraine. Furthermore, "the extreme polarisation between Russia and the West will not allow Israel to continue manoeuvring between these two worlds," the source explains. He adds that Israel is facing increasing pressure from Europe and Washington over its opposition to transferring weapons and defence systems to Ukraine. Diplomatic sources in Israel say the country may eventually be forced to relent. "Eventually we will have to stand with the Western countries," claims one of the sources cited by Lis, "but we will do so while battered and bruised".

There are other opinions as well. Israel does not want to break its agreement with Russia, which includes refusing to supply arms to Ukraine, because it intends to avoid a direct clash with Russia in Syria. Israeli planes bomb that country all the time and what happens if they clash with the Russians? A conflict between the two nuclear powers, Russia and Israel? Another senior Israeli official, whose opinion is quoted by Lis, had this to say: "I don't know of any other country that has planes flying within spitting distance of Russian pilots on a daily basis. Israel has a problem that other countries do not have".

The Haaretz article can also be seen as one of the warning signals that Israel is sending to Russia, suggesting that it should not provide significant military assistance to Tehran, the main opponent of the Jewish state. They say, dear Russian friends, we are already under pressure from the Americans, who demand that we hand over our weapons to Ukraine, and we are resisting this for now, but...

But this is all general reasoning so far. In practice, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has rejected the possibility of expanding military aid to Ukraine and maintains the government's policy of relative inaction on this issue.

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