Armenia fails in its attempts to drag EU mission to Karabakh
Grigoryan's null strategy

ANALYTICS  02 May 2023 - 13:05

"The number and capacities of the European Union observation mission on the border with Azerbaijan should be expanded," Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan told journalists. In his opinion, "this will enable the mission to carry out its work more productively".

I wonder how the Armenian authorities came to the conclusion that this step would make the mission more effective. In particular, it is very curious how the quantification was done. Taking into account that with the number of 100 people, not a single representative of the EU mission has arrived at the place of recent escalation on the conditional border near the village of Dygh, what are the odds that if the mission had 300 people, one of its members would have arrived at the place of the next hypothetical aggravation? There is no guarantee. Moreover, according to the laws of arithmetic, it is simply impossible, because multiplying by zero gives zero. If no one appeared at the number of 100 people, they will not appear at the number of 300. And not at all because the Europeans are cowardly, but simply because their main aim is not to observe the conditional border. For smart people, the risk is always justified by a higher purpose. The fact that European observers are not stupid, even if they are hostile towards Azerbaijan, is hardly doubtful. If they had the aim of observing the border, they would certainly show up. We have already written that the main purpose of the mission is espionage and working to oust Russia's military presence out of Armenia.

Grigoryan is, of course, not only aware of this but is also the curator of a very important, most poignant part of this project, namely the collection of erotic videos of Russian servicemen in brothels in Gyumri. Thus, by voicing his desire to increase the size of the mission, Grigoryan is signaling the need to strengthen the confrontation with Moscow. Apparently, this is in turn due to Russia's growing resistance to the hostile shenanigans of Europeans in Armenia. When the confrontation accumulates a critical mass, there will be enough fire to extinguish. I wonder what the Armenian elites are counting on in such a development?

Though fraught with consequences for the region, the decision to expand the mission is formally an internal affair of Armenia. However, Grigoryan went far with his intentions. In the same statement, he added that Yerevan is working intensively with foreign partners to send an international mission to collect evidence in the "Lachin corridor and Karabakh". It should be noted that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly stated the need for the presence of international observers and a fact-finding mission in Karabakh.

That is, if earlier Armenian officials had only stated the need to send an international mission to Karabakh, now, you see, they are already "working intensively". The more Azerbaijan strengthens its sovereignty over the Karabakh region, the more "threatening" Yerevan's statements become. The same Grigoryan stated three days ago that "the Lachin corridor belongs to Russia". However, the menacing (or rather, ridiculously menacing) tone of these statements exactly shows the absolute helplessness of Armenia and its patrons to oppose anything to the legitimate policy of Azerbaijan to strengthen its sovereignty. And yet big things get done quietly. If Yerevan had the resources to send an international mission to Karabakh, it would have done so already.

There are no legal grounds for sending international missions to Azerbaijan, and there cannot be. Karabakh is no longer a conflict region. Azerbaijan agreed to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers as a goodwill gesture during the end of the acute phase of the conflict and the transition to a peaceful phase of post-conflict reintegration.

The best thing international organisations can do is to facilitate Karabakh's early reintegration with Azerbaijan. Any initiative to send a mission to Azerbaijan without agreement with the latter would in fact only contribute to escalation, as it would falsely embolden Armenia and the remnants of the separatist gang, reducing their motivation to lay down arms and thus increasing the likelihood of a military and police operation by Azerbaijan to disarm the gangs.

Given all these considerations, intelligent people in Europe will not push through Yerevan's absurd idea of sending an international mission to Karabakh. The most they can do in this direction is to allow Grigoryan to talk about some kind of intensive work.

Grigoryan also believes that France can help Armenia to solve the country's security problems and resolve the "Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".

If France could help Armenia solve the "Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" (naturally, in favor of the latter), it would have already done so during the 30 years of its shameful co-chairmanship in the OSCE Minsk Group. All France has really managed to do for Armenia is to entrench a fatal sense of impunity, which has resulted in over 5000 fresh graves on Yerablur, the tears of mothers and the virtual collapse of statehood. Is it worth relying on France? The question is rhetorical. Don't waste your energy on artificial hysteria or it will soon turn into agony.

Caliber.Az