What happened to Ukrainian counteroffensive?
Chinese factor in the war

ANALYTICS  23 May 2023 - 12:30

In an article published in April, we wrote about the inevitability of an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is caused by the intensification of Sino-Russian cooperation and the desire to win key successes before Chinese weapons and possibly manpower begin to arrive at the Ukrainian front.

Now summer is just weeks away and officials insist the counteroffensive is coming. Recently, however, rumours about an imminent counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun to subside, and we will try to express our opinion on why this is happening.

Undoubtedly, the fact of the creation of such a large military alliance as Russia-China could not but alert the West and several important decisions were made aimed at putting pressure on the PRC. First, it is the escalation of the situation around Taiwan. China undoubtedly understood that this war would not be popular - recent opinion polls confirmed that only 50% of the PRC population supports a military operation against the island.

The second tool was the restrictions imposed by the United States and the West on China's access to high technologies, mainly related to the production of microprocessors. This area is particularly sensitive for China, with its space ambitions and leadership in the production of electric vehicles.

And judging by recent events, these measures of the West have borne fruit. Suffice it to mention two very eloquent facts that testify to the effectiveness of these tools.

First, during the UN vote on May 2, 2023, the Chinese delegation for the first time voted in favour of the General Assembly resolution, which named Russia as the aggressor in the war against Ukraine. Previously, China had abstained from voting on such resolutions.

Second, Xi Jinping did not congratulate Vladimir Putin on the main Russian holiday - Victory Day in the Second World War, which also speaks eloquently about the distancing of China from Russia.

Long-awaited counteroffensive 

Preparations for a counteroffensive have been going on for a long time. Ammunition, armoured vehicles, air defence systems, and aircraft were supplied to Ukraine in quantities that could lead to success on the line of contact between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Armed Forces.

The strategy of quick counterattacking actions is not traditionally preferred in the actions of the West against Russia. Historically, ideology and economics played a major role in the collapse of the USSR, not brute military force.

At the same time, the status of the USSR as a nuclear power and the possible expansion of the conflict to a global one with nuclear weapons were taken into account, making the consequences of such a conflict unpredictable. Therefore, when choosing a strategy to combat Russia, the West, since the time of the Cuban missile crisis, has preferred non-military methods of resolving conflict situations.

As for the arms race and hotbeds of tension that periodically arise along the perimeter of the Union, these factors were more likely factors of economic pressure undermining the Soviet commodity economy than a real military threat that threatened to escalate into a direct clash with the military machine of the USSR.

Initially, the West's plan in Ukraine was similar to the old proven method, consisting of the economic strangulation and internal collapse of Russia. However, Russia was able to avoid the harmful effects of economic sanctions by managing to strengthen trade and other ties with new partners in Asia.

Weapons' supply

Basically, the economic effect of the sanctions was offset by the diversification of raw material flows from Europe to Asia, to the capacious markets of China and India, the volumes of which made it possible to compensate for the lower price of energy exports to these countries. In addition, China and several other BRICS and SCO countries did not condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and even supplied Russia with a certain number of weapons and equipment.

As far as it became known, Iran specialized and still specializes in the supply of drones, China also supplied drones, body armour, helmets, and some other protective uniforms. In addition, there were prerequisites for the emergence of manpower from Iran and China on the front line on the side of Russia. These potential threats forced Western and Ukrainian strategists to develop a plan for a lightning-fast counteroffensive, which was to begin as soon as the wet ground after the spring thaw began to dry out, for more efficient operation of armoured vehicles and other vehicles.

For months, Western allies have delivered weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine worth billions of dollars for an anticipated spring counteroffensive. In just the past five months, the US has announced it would send more than $14 billion in weapons and ammunition to Kyiv, most of which is being pulled from existing stockpiles in order to get the supplies to Ukraine faster. NATO and Western allies have also pledged billions in tanks, armoured vehicles and air defence systems.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 11 that “Kyiv is delaying its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russia’s occupying forces because Ukraine lacks enough Western weapons to succeed without suffering too many casualties”.

Russia has approximately 200,000 troops along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) battle line, dug in using trench warfare tactics, and these troops are not as highly trained as Russia’s initial invading forces. But they are defended by ditches, minefields and dragon’s teeth — above-ground triangle-shaped concrete barriers that make it difficult for tanks to move.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun shaping operations, such as targeting Russia’s forward lines with long-range artillery fire. That may indicate that Ukraine is about to push forward on that location or it could be a decoy to draw Russia’s attention from its actual planned first strike.

How did the above factors affect Ukraine's military strategy? Convinced that there would be no military alliance between China and Russia in the short term, the West reoriented Ukraine from a strategy of lightning-fast counteroffensive back to a policy of slowly suffocating Russia economically through the application of new sanctions and the continuation of pressure along the entire frontline.

For how long? Everything will depend on China, on whether Putin will be able to convince his Chinese counterpart to increase support in the military conflict with Ukraine. Well, China, in turn, will try to make the most of such geopolitical dependence, bargaining on energy prices or getting favourable conditions for the exploitation of the richest natural resources of Siberia.

Caliber.Az