Local War or World War III?
What can the conflict in Ukraine result in?

ANALYTICS  19 June 2023 - 17:04

While Blinken is announcing progress in the talks with Beijing, China's aid to Russia has not stopped coming, and the fighting continues with increasing intensity. From this we can draw certain conclusions about the goal of the parties interested in the conflict in Ukraine The fuss over Taiwan did not help the United States distract Beijing from its intention to help Russia in its aggressive aspirations in Ukraine. So how can events develop on these fronts?

After more than a year of hostilities, it became clear that neither Russia nor even Ukraine is capable of winning a decisive victory without the help of allies. Russia's intention to take Kyiv in three days ended in a shameful retreat, followed by the abandonment of Kherson and the Kharkiv region.

To date, the fate of the two regional powers - Ukraine and Russia - has ended up in the hands of two world leaders - the United States and China, and thus the entire conflict today is reduced to the confrontation of the latter, and not at all Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine was chosen simply as a field for the hot phase of confrontation.

Today, the help of the allies of the warring parties is limited to the supply of weapons (modern and not so), various equipment, and economic assistance. There is no help in manpower yet, except for a small number of volunteers fighting for both sides - you can bring Poles and Georgians fighting for Ukraine and Serbs fighting on the side of Russia.

With the appearance of regular troops from NATO, China will have a free hand in order to send its contingent to the line of contact. What will happen with this? What benefits do the belligerents receive and will receive in the future? Let's try to figure this out.

Undoubtedly, many different weapons have been produced during the post-war years in the United States, Europe and China. Various kinds of military exercises make it possible to update the arsenals only on a small scale. A heated conflict relatively far from the US and China is the perfect place to refresh your stockpiles and also add momentum to a sluggish peacetime defence industry.

In addition, an army that does not have combat experience is not particularly effective in a real military conflict, and the Ukrainian conflict will serve as an excellent opportunity for the Chinese army to gain combat experience, because after Vietnam, this army was practically inactive, unlike the United States, which fought in Iraq, and in Afghanistan and Syria.

The fighting in Ukraine is an excellent testing ground for new types of weapons, such as Leopard 2 tanks, which did not take part in real hostilities. Cruise missiles and air defence systems are also undergoing a serious combat test in the fields of Ukraine.

And what about the tactical nuclear weapons that Russia is threatening to use here and there? As we wrote earlier, most military and political experts agreed that such a move by Russia would lead to its political isolation and most likely defeat in the war.

The goal of the "allies" in this war is simple - to weaken both sides for their own benefits, therefore, neither China nor the United States is interested in the complete defeat of either side. Thus, the most optimal strategy for the beneficiaries (and we determined that these are China and the United States) will be the complete exhaustion of the financial and human resources of both sides of the conflict. So what will the Big Brothers get at the end of the fratricidal war?

China will gain access to the endless resources of Siberia - timber, oil, gas, diamonds and much more. The United States will not only gain access to the richest arable lands of Ukraine, reserves of lithium, gas and other minerals, but will also have its most combat-ready outpost, influencing not only Russia but Europe as a whole. And presumably, Europe, as always, will receive crumbs from the master's table.

So can we expect that this conflict will take on the character of the Third World War? The chances of such an outcome are small, as modern communist China has no tradition of aggressive seizure of territories, preferring to achieve its goals on the sly. An example is the return of Hong Kong.

That is why the situation around Taiwan, inflated by the United States, will not lead to real military clashes, that is, the conflict in Ukraine will remain a local conflict without drawing many other countries into hostilities, limiting the participation of the West to Lend-Lease and other types of assistance.

We are witnessing with deep regret this bloody conflict between the two Slavic peoples, and the most offensive thing is that it will not be those who sent their sons to the front, who huddled in the basements under the bombings, who will benefit. As the saying goes, "Lords fight, and the serfs crack their foreheads." Alas, Russia and Ukraine play the role of serfs here, but the lords will only rub their hands, counting the profit.

Caliber.Az