Who is profiting in Ukraine conflict?
Tug of war

ANALYTICS  04 July 2023 - 16:18

Today, fierce fighting is taking place on the battlefields in Ukraine. Neither side can gain the upper hand. Armed with the most advanced Western weapons, Ukraine is trying to launch a counteroffensive into positions occupied by Russia, while the latter has far greater manpower and natural resources in the long game. Nevertheless, neither side even thinks about territorial concessions, which implies a long-term conflict of many years.

The Western pundits claim that support for Ukraine from the US and much of Europe would be provided until Ukraine's complete victory seems utterly unrealistic in the case of a rival such as Russia. It would seem that the nuclear weapons, rich resources, and a multi-million army of reservists make Russia an invincible adversary, however, the failed attempted offensive against Kyiv, the abandonment of Kherson and the retreat from Kharkiv region have led Ukrainian leaders to believe that they can handle such a formidable rival.

However, this confidence has its flaws. First, Russia still has an overwhelming advantage in air and armoured vehicles, not to mention human resources. Secondly, according to Western military experts, the Russian army has learned a lot from the painful defeats of the first half of the military campaign in Ukraine and began to act more competently, especially in defence.

And finally, we are talking about the defensive actions of Russia, aimed at holding the previously occupied lands. And defenсe, as we know, is much less costly in terms of ammunition and manpower losses. If earlier the attacking Russian army was criticized for a very slow advance and insignificant territorial gains, today the situation is exactly the opposite and the Ukrainian army is in exactly the same position.

So what do the United States and China, the main parties interested in conflict, want to get as a result of the war? Undoubtedly, the main goal of both interests is the two resource-rich countries - Ukraine and Russia - that have been exhausted by the protracted conflict. And if the United States is mainly interested in Ukraine, as a European anti-Russian outpost rich in natural and human resources, then China wants, in addition to the wealth of Siberia, to seize control over the republics of Central Asia and Mongolia, which is absolutely not in the US interest.

This is the reason why the crushing defeat of Russia and its subsequent collapse is not part of the US plans. While Russia, which has been making the same mistakes for centuries, is more or less predictable, China, which controls Mongolia and Central Asia, is already a rival with dangerous potential.

That is why China will never become a full-fledged partner of Russia and will provide rather symbolic military assistance in the Ukrainian conflict, considering its northern neighbour rather as a raw material base, and not as a neighbour of equal strength.

What are the US post-war goals? First of all, to become Ukraine’s main economic and political partner, and turn it into a powerful anti-Russian outpost. As for Russia, the United States will categorically not allow an excessive weakening or, even worse, the collapse of this country, precisely in order to prevent the growth of Chinese influence in Central Asia and Mongolia. In addition, large volumes of arms supplies have noticeably revived the defence industry in many countries, especially the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.

The opportunity for the defence industry of these countries to actually test the latest weapons systems should not be discounted. In addition, an army with no combat experience is worthless, which is why post-war Ukraine will be an impressive force, consisting of experienced fighters armed with the most advanced Western equipment.

What about nuclear deterrence and Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons? In this case, the keyword is "deterrence". Russia's attempts to pretend to be a victim of the aggression, basing this on the fact that Ukraine is advancing on the "newly annexed territories" are naive and do not convince anyone in the world community, even, for example, China and Türkiye, which consistently advocate the recognition of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Thus, the use of nuclear weapons in such conditions will not bring Russia any dividends and will only increase its political isolation in the world.

How long the conflict will last will depend on several factors, the most important of which will be the fatigue of the parties. How soon it will come will depend on the state of the economy and the mood in society. As we remember the war in Vietnam ended when the American people grew weary of losing their sons and veterans began to throw their awards around the White House gates. 

Time will tell how long the Russian and Ukrainian economies will endure the burden of military expenditures and how many sons must be lost before society stops supporting its leaders. Meanwhile, we, the immediate neighbours of the conflicting parties, will hope for a speedy end to this fratricidal war.

Caliber.Az