Georgia’s role in ensuring the safety of the Black Sea region
Where is the West, and where is Russia?

ANALYTICS  10 July 2023 - 12:35

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted a rapid and potentially lasting shift in sourcing Europe’s natural gas and the emergence of new transit routes as the Russian role in European markets, energy mixes, and infrastructure continues to diminish. In this vein, gas producers in the South Caucasus, Caspian basin, and beyond are moving in to fill the gap and assist with alleviating the crisis.

In fact, Russia's hostile attitude towards its immediate neighbourhood, namely Georgia, Ukraine, and to some extent, Kazakhstan, highlighted the importance of the South Caucasus and Black Sea regions for the Western coalition. For example, Russia’s invasion of Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia territories in 2008 has dramatically shifted the security landscape of the Black Sea, serving as a link between the Caspian, Aegean and Mediterranean basins.

The 2008 war against Georgia became a signal of Russia's looming hybrid warfare strategy against small regional states, and therefore Tbilisi reframed and strengthened its role as a proactive contributor to Black Sea security. The country has proved itself a trustworthy NATO partner and contributor to Euro-Atlantic security through active participation in NATO-led operations and international missions. However, the smooth relations with the Atlantic community recently worsened amid mutual escalatory rhetoric and criticism.

Moreover, unlike most Western partners, Georgia has remained hesitant to participate in Western sanctions against Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, Tbilisi has voted to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, joining 140 other countries in the vote during the United Nations General Assembly resolution on March 2, 2023.

Nevertheless, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the global economic crisis opened new horizons for Georgia to bolster its role as a safe transit route and link to connect the Black Sea region with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions. This narrative became more explicit when in October 2023, the Russian navy prevented the passage of Ukrainian vessels through the Turkish Straits, generating or exacerbating food crises in around 50 countries that collectively depend on Ukrainian and Russian wheat for 30% of their cereal imports.

In addition to that, the war has caused significant disruption to international transportation routes. Trucks that once ferried goods to and from Russian and Central Asian markets via Ukraine have had to divert because of the war in that country, and shipping giants that once relied on east-to-west Russian railway corridors to and from China also have had to re-route due to international sanctions.

When the world faced a new type of crisis, namely the food and supply chain crisis, the debates in the West renewed discussions regarding finding reliable and steadfast regional allies in the Black Sea region. In this context, Georgia's geography and infrastructure position it as the region's primary interconnector for energy, trade, and telecommunication throughout the South Caucasus and with neighbouring regions.

The Black Sea region is a frontier between the West and Russia and the meeting point of four great forces: democracy in the West, Russian military aggression to the North, growing Chinese financial influence to the East, and Middle Eastern instability in the South.

With the re-route of traditional transportation routes, much of these goods began passing through Georgia and has touted its potential. For example, according to the Georgian data, truck traffic through Georgia had increased by 12 per cent in 2022 compared to the previous year, including a 16 per cent increase in traffic between Georgia and Türkiye and a 20 per cent rise in traffic between Georgia and Azerbaijan. Technically, Georgian checkpoints can only allow through 200–250 vehicles a day, while 700–800 new vehicles line up daily.

Despite positive vibes in the growing demand for Georgia's territory as a safe trade route, the deepening political instability, public unrest, and frequent criticism of Georgia in the West may harshly affect the local government’s commitment to comply with partnership regulations further.

Partners in the West are unhappy with the ruling Georgian Dream government's current level of dialogue with Russia, such as the recent restoration of direct flights between Georgia and Russia and growing trade partnership with Moscow. As such, Georgia has ramped up Russian imports to record highs this year, while imports from Russia grew 74 per cent year-on-year in 2022.

Notwithstanding discontent at home and abroad, Georgia remains a key country in the Black Sea basin, linking the region with the Caspian basin and Central Asia. Therefore, the European Union recently agreed to construct a new subsea internet cable for the South Caucasus via Georgia in order to reduce regional reliance on Russia's terrestrial fibre-optic connectivity.

Maintaining stability in the Black Sea region is also essential for ensuring the smooth flow of natural gas from the Caspian basin and Central Asia to Europe as the only viable option for Europe, which seeks to forge favourable geopolitical alliances in the region to tackle the Russian influence.

Caliber.Az