How could the US re-engagement in the negotiations affect the Karabakh peace process?
America's Hour in the Caucasus

POLITICS  28 July 2023 - 14:33

Since the end of the second Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan have narrowly avoided conflict in the Caucasus, though there have been brief military confrontations between the two countries, their postures have remained distant. The military victory of Azerbaijan granted Baku an upper hand in the negotiation process, which Russia initially monopolized, the leading regional stakeholder.

However, as Russia's role as a regional mediator has been interrupted by its violent war against Ukraine, a gap has been left for the United States to bring the two countries together in the interest of the people of Azerbaijan and Armenia. All of this demonstrated that the Russian peacekeepers are no longer inspiring the opposing parties with fear or respect. Moreover, Russia has had to share its position with Azerbaijan’s ally Türkiye. Given the value of a working partnership with Ankara, it has not challenged Turkish military support for Azerbaijan.

As a result of the invasion campaign against Ukraine, regional states have distanced themselves from Russia – none of the South Caucasian or Central Asian states recognizes the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, nor their annexation, and has either voted for or abstained from voting on the U.N. resolutions condemning the invasion. Nevertheless, considering Russia’s long-term influence in the region, many countries, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, are not voicing direct opposition to the war.

Indeed, such perspectives enabled non-regional stakeholders like the European Union and the US to intervene in the peace process and obtain a greater role. The heightened US and European interest in helping create a genuine security order in the Caucasus will decidedly benefit the region and its neighbours. With the gradually increasing interest in the peace process, the US managed to arrange several ministerial and leaders' meetings of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington to push for more intensive dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. For example, after months of stalled negotiations, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s peace talks with the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers on May 1-4 in Washington, DC, alleviated some of the tensions between the neighbouring countries.

Compared to the peace talks in Moscow and Brussels, the most recent Washington meeting was the most extended round of peace negotiations since the Karabakh ceasefire agreement 2020. "The two sides have discussed some very tough issues over the last few days, and they've made tangible progress on a durable peace agreement," Blinken said at a closing session for the bilateral peace negotiation.

In this vein, Russia has no other option but to cautiously watch the waning influence, though it recently managed to arrange another ministerial meeting in Moscow on July 26, 2023. The decision to arrange a meeting was particularly important for Russia, reflecting its ambitions to maintain the leading stakeholder role. Nonetheless, as expected, the Moscow meeting also yielded little results in terms of the peace treaty and the current crisis on the Lachin road. Also, the US re-engagement with the peace process came as a part of the EU's attempts to boost soft power strategy toward the region by providing financial and technical assistance to Baku and Yerevan to alleviate the post-war repercussions.

Prior to this strategy, the regional and international connections spawned by the war and the West’s negligent attitude. Russia’s systematic failures to sustain the level of influence similar to two years ago, the US-EU tandem gained more space to project their influence and power into these areas and moved them to take advantage of such opportunities. At this stage, both Armenia and Azerbaijan seem satisfied with the Western involvement as there is still a lack of confidence in Moscow regarding its intentions and attempts to manipulate the peace process. 

As in the case of Baku, the country is more interested in Western assistance in border demarcation/delimitation with Armenia before the final peace treaty will be signed. The Azerbaijani authorities believe that the EU and the US possess enough leverage to persuade Yerevan to finalize the process, which could pave the way for final peace. On the other hand, Armenia recently criticized Russia shortly after the Moscow meeting, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that “Armenia recognized Karabakh as the part of Azerbaijani territory,” which had "cardinally changed the fundamental conditions".

Russia's new and relatively Azerbaijan-friendly stance follows recent positive assessments from Baku of the EU-mediated negotiations and continued grumbles of dissatisfaction with the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. All these opportunities to bring the region and its neighbours, namely Baku and Yerevan, into a virtuous circle now exist if peace with all these ensuing benefits can be brought into existence.

Caliber.Az