Game of drones
Catalyst for escalation of Russian-Ukrainian conflict

ANALYTICS  21 August 2023 - 15:23

The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year and a half. The battlefields have become a kind of testing ground for various types of weapons - from the latest guidance systems to modern missiles capable of hitting targets over 300 kilometres away. Today, however, drones and cruise missiles are beginning to take on increasing importance, which adversaries are beginning to use with increasing intensity.

As we remember, the beginning was laid by the use of Turkish Bayraktars, which successfully helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine stop the hasty and ill-conceived offensive of Russian troops in Kyiv. However, then Bayraktar went into the shadows, mainly due to the successful work of Russian air defence and aviation, which confidently seized air supremacy, and by that time the Russian army had already left Kherson and moved away from Kharkiv.

The counteroffensive attempts were not very successful for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The advances of both sides are very modest, forcing both sides to change tactics and switch to missile-drone attacks on infrastructure facilities. Russia mainly uses Kinzhal and Zircon cruise missiles and low-cost Iranian Shahed-type drones assembled in Russia under the name Geran. The latter are slow-moving and unable to hit serious Ukrainian objects of a defensive and strategic nature.

However, these drones are quite suitable for destroying civilian and infrastructure facilities, such as multi-story buildings, roads, and bridges, not covered by Ukrainian air defence systems.

From the fact that Ukrainian aviation is still carrying out combat missions and being serviced, that the energy system of Ukraine continues to supply the population and industry with electricity, we can conclude that the air defence of Ukraine is successfully coping with today's threats from Russia.

Iran's Shaheed drones are shot down with the help of anti-aircraft machine guns of the Gepard and Shilka types, and cruise missiles are shot down with the old systems of the S200, S300, Buk, Kub types, as well as the NASAMS, Aspaid and Iris systems newly supplied by the West. They also strengthened the air defence of the country MANPADS Stinger made in the USA.

However, no one doubted that Ukraine, with its scientific and industrial potential, would also create its own weapons systems capable of delivering very sensitive strikes on the front line and far across Russia.

Attacks on what objects were primarily of interest to the Ukrainian military leadership? First of all, this is the Crimean Bridge and the military infrastructure of the occupied peninsula. Then warehouses and railway junctions in the border zone - Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Krasnodar. And finally, decision-making points in the capital, Moscow, which suddenly found itself within the reach of Ukrainian drones.

Ukraine drone attacks map

The first sign in this direction was a Ukrainian drone, which turned out to be a converted Soviet TU141 Strizh aircraft, which was sent towards Moscow, but was shot down by Russian air defence forces. This device weighed 5 tons and was able to fly about 1000 kilometres, which allowed it to fly to the capital of Russia.

Today, Ukraine uses several types of drones for attacks on Russian territory, in particular, the Chinese-made Mugin-5, which are available on the commercial market, and the Ukrainian-made Beaver UAV.

Other models are produced in the West and are also actively used by the Ukrainian side. For attacks on maritime targets, such as warships, oil tankers, and bridges, Ukraine uses exclusively its own development - the marine drone Magura 5. The length of the boat is 5.5 m, and the width is no more than 2 m. The total mass of the marine drone reaches one ton.

A high-explosive warhead weighing up to 300 kg is placed inside the hull. Undermining can be carried out in contact with the target or at the command of the operator. Marine drone-type Magura V5 is equipped with a gasoline outboard engine and has a speed of up to 80 km/h. The range of combat use is 800 km, and autonomy is within 60 hours. The last undermining of the Crimean Bridge was carried out by two drones of this type.

Magura V5 marine drone

Thus, Ukraine does not behave at all like a humble victim of an enemy superior in manpower and equipment. Ukraine shows its teeth, and very effectively. The increased frequency of drone attacks not only on the occupied Crimea, but also on objects far in the depths of Russian territory sends a very clear signal to the Russian leadership that "the war is just beginning - prepare for the worst."

There is no doubt that Russia is ready to respond, and very painfully, to such attacks, and the bombings of Odesa, Kyiv and Chernihiv make this clear, but Russia has shown that it is far from invulnerable and will also have to endure painful blows.

Moreover, the most vulnerable category in this situation will be precisely the civilian population of Russian cities. After all, it is no secret that strikes on civilian targets have their moral destructive power - they weaken the will of the population and undermine the faith in the leadership's ability to protect its citizens.

So, the intensification of Ukrainian drone attacks on the territory of Russia indicates that Ukraine has accepted the Russian challenge, is confident in its abilities, and is ready to fight to the last.

How Russia will respond remains to be seen, however, both sides will strive for maximum progress on the fronts in order to get the strongest position in the negotiations, whenever they take place. Considering that none of the parties has a decisive advantage on the battlefield, we dare to assume that the most bloody and fierce battles are still ahead of us.

Caliber.Az