Israel-Iran-Saudi Arabia: a war that will change the face of the Middle East
Shereshevskiy's outlook

ANALYTICS  11 October 2023 - 15:53

What is happening in Israel these days is unprecedented. The Hamas rocket and ground attack, in several places at once, has become the most serious assault on the Jewish state in decades. It was clear for a long time that the standoff between the Palestinian armed groups and Israel was aggravating, but no one knew how and where it would reach a boiling point. More precisely, almost no one…

According to Hamas and Hezbollah representatives, Iran greenlit their attack on Israel on October 2 in Beirut. They shared this information with the Wall Street Journal. On that day, they said, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gave final approval for the operation. According to senior members of both organisations, since August, representatives of the groups have met with IRGC-Quds leaders in Lebanon at least once every fortnight to discuss the possibility of attacking Israel. Some of the meetings were attended by Ismail Qaani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force (an organisation within the IRGC that conducts covert operations abroad), along with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah and Hamas military chief Saleh al-Arouri. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Abdollahian attended the meetings twice.

All in all, according to a Hamas militant captured by Israeli security forces, it took about a year to train the special forces. Another source close to Hamas told Reuters that Palestinian militants had been plotting the operation for two years, and during all this time they successfully gave the impression that they were focused on a joint economic solution with Israel for the Gaza Strip rather than an armed confrontation. This has reduced Israel's readiness to attack.

The statements by senior Hamas and Hezbollah representatives to the Wall Street Journal confirm the conclusions that Jonathan Spyer, an Israeli military and political analyst and expert on Iranian proxies, drew about six months ago. He even published a detailed article in The Jerusalem Post about Iran's preparation for a large-scale military operation. It was about the need to ensure the "unity of the resistance arena."

The Iranians refer to their allies and proxies as the "Axis of Resistance." This refers to organisations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime and loyalist militias in Syria, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Yemeni Houthis. Israel's two main adversaries (and Iran's ally), Hamas and Hezbollah, were expected to launch a coordinated offensive of large proportions.

In the end, something similar happened: massive rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel, raids by Hamas special forces into Israeli territory, and, at the same time, rising tensions on Israel's northern border - skirmishes with and threats from Hezbollah.

All of Spyer's findings are confirmed today by statements coming from Hezbollah and Hamas. According to their senior representatives, as well as an Iranian official, the broader IRGC plan is to threaten to open multiple fronts - an opportunity to strangle Israel with attacks from all sides - from Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.

The high level of militant training and planning of the operation also points to the enormous role of Iran. Who else would have been able to train 1,000 special forces who broke through the Israeli defence line, acting coherently underground through specially created tunnels, on the ground, in the air, and at sea (maritime landing force)? Such a thing is impossible without long training. "This is our 9/11," says Major Nir Dinar, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces. - They caught us ... Caught us by surprise and quickly attacked from many points - from the air, from the ground, and from the sea." The same goes for devising a plan of attack. Hamas does not have its own military academy to train commanding officers - high-level specialists in developing and managing multi-sphere operations. And even if there were such an academy, the question arises, who would train its instructors?

But why does Iran need it and why now?

The point is that in recent weeks, discussions have intensified on a project that, if implemented, could seriously change the balance of power in the Middle East. We are talking about a grandiose deal - the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia through US mediation. In fact, it is a continuation of the Abraham Accords, a project to normalise relations between Israel and the Arab states, which has already been joined by the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. However, the case of the Saudis is special. Here, a complex and comprehensive plan was envisaged, covering virtually all areas, from nuclear energy and security issues to infrastructure and the economy.

The US initiated the largest infrastructure project, a network of railways and modernised ports, which would have provided a transport corridor from India to Europe via the Middle East. The flow of goods, after coming from India to local ports, would be channelled through the new railways via Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel and from there to EU countries. The project is expected to cut goods movement time from India to Europe by 40 per cent and generate $4 billion in profits annually. The construction will cost $17 billion and create about 100 thousand jobs. In fact, it is a question of creating a single transport system integrating the economies of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, as well as a number of other countries. And this plan may well be considered as an alternative to China's "One Belt, Ona Road".

But this is not all. In exchange for the normalisation of relations with Israel, the Saudis want uninterrupted supplies of the latest weapons from the US, investments, assistance in the development of nuclear energy, as well as a special status that would provide them with Washington's military protection in case of external aggression - an agreement similar to those between the US and South Korea and between the US and Japan was envisaged.

From Israel, the Saudis would like to receive the technology needed to modernise their economy for the shift to the post-oil era. They are also interested in security cooperation to contain their main (and common) rival in the region, Iran.

For its part, Israel would like to use the Saudi Kingdom, the largest and richest Arab country, as an investor and at the same time a springboard for operations against Iran, and more generally as a gateway to the Muslim and Arab world.

It would seem that there are benefits for everyone. But it is not that simple.

The Saudis claim to be the leading power in the Arab world. Prince Mohamed bin Salman enjoys growing popularity in the Middle East. The petroleum-based absolute monarchy positions itself as the centre of secular Arab nationalism and as a force for investment, and economic and humanitarian aid for Arab states. The Saudis would therefore like a thaw in relations between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. Otherwise, rapprochement with Israel could undermine Saudi influence among Arabs. Without such a thaw, a deal is unlikely.

This is where it becomes clear why it is so important for Iran to use its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, to launch a large-scale attack on Israelis. This is why a major Israeli-Gaza war, or perhaps a new Lebanese-Israeli military confrontation, is beginning. 

Iran is confronting Israel. It also competes for influence in the Persian Gulf with Saudi Arabia. The re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran should fool no one. The Saudis have a multi-vector policy. They don't need a war with Iran, they are ready to talk to it and even invest up to a billion dollars in its economy. But at the same time, they would like a solid defence against Iran through a military alliance with the US and rapprochement with Israel.

Iran, for its part, fears the emergence of an influential Saudi-Israeli-American bloc and, more broadly, the process of normalisation between its main enemy Israel and the Arabs. That is why, according to representatives of Hezbollah and Hamas, the purpose of the strike on Israel was to disrupt the negotiations on normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which have intensified in recent weeks thanks to US mediation. Possible resulting agreements, Iran believes, pose a serious threat to it. The attack on Israel was probably prepared long ago, but the order to carry out the operation was given at the right moment.

Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the Gulf Arab Institute in Washington, notes in this regard: "Israel's expanding ties with the Gulf Arab states could lead to a chain of US allies connecting three key nodes of world trade - the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait."

"This would be bad news for Iran," Ibish believes, "because if US allies can do this, the strategic map will change dramatically for Iran's worse".

That is why Iran has decided to act. The Hamas attack on Israel was not the only action by Tehran's allies. A few weeks earlier, a pro-Iranian rebel movement in Yemen (the Houthis) had fired drones at a border crossing in Saudi Arabia.

In this way, Tehran may have succeeded in derailing the Israel-Saudi deal, at least in the short term. But the risks are growing, including for itself.

Having suffered losses, Israel is now set for a bigger war and victory. The country is mobilising 300,000 reservists and intends, judging by some statements, to completely destroy Iranian ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip. That's a start. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasised, Israel is preparing for a long war that will "change the face of the Middle East". And the disturbing events unfolding make the situation in the region unpredictable, including for Iran and its allies.

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