Why are Iran and Hezbollah avoiding all-out war with Israel?
Review by Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  19 November 2023 - 12:59

As Israeli troops advance into the Gaza Strip, hostilities are spreading to northern Israel, where Israeli forces have clashed with pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah. Will there be a new Lebanese-Israeli war? Or even a major Iran-Israeli war?

The Palestinian organization Hamas, which operates in Gaza, is part of a broad coalition organized by Iran. This alliance is called the "Axis of Resistance". It includes Hezbollah - the master of Lebanon, a number of factions and the Assad regime in Syria, which together control 60 per cent of Syrian territory, including the capital - Damascus, Iraqi Shiite militias and parties - they control Iraq, and the Yemeni Houthi rebel movement, which controls a quarter of the territory Yemen, including the capital of the country - the city of Sana'a.

Since the Iranians and the entire Axis of Resistance have been talking about “loyalty to the Palestinian cause” and “fighting the Israeli occupation and blockade of the Palestinian territories” for many years, armed and trained Hamas militants, they cannot simply ignore what is happening in Gaza. Hamas has repeatedly appealed to its allies for help. That's why Hezbollah fires at Israeli units on the Lebanese border and the Houthis fire rockets at Israel from Yemen. But the question is: do all these forces and Iran, standing behind them, need a full-scale war with Israel, which will cover the entire Middle East, or at least all of Lebanon? So far, the answer to this question is negative.

Reuters reports indicate that while Iran's Axis of Resistance is now undergoing a trial by fire, Iran's Supreme Leader has abandoned the idea of a full-scale conflict with Israel. Parisa Hafezi, Laila Bassam and Arshad Mohammed report that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. According to three senior officials, Khamenei gave a clear message to the Hamas chief: "You did not warn us about your attack on Israel on October 7, and we will not go to war on your behalf."

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Ismail Haniyeh that Iran, a longtime supporter of Hamas, would continue to provide the group with political and moral support but would not intervene directly. This was reported by Iranian and Hamas officials familiar with the negotiations who asked to remain anonymous.

Rahbar also pressured the Hamas leader to use all his influence to in turn silence those who publicly call on Iran and its powerful Lebanese ally Hezbollah to engage in a full-scale fight against Israel, a Hamas official told Reuters.

Claims that the Iranians did not know about the start of the Hamas operation on October 7 are extremely dubious. Hamas militants were trained by the Iranians and Hezbollah - apart from them, there are simply no forces in the region capable of providing such high-quality preparation for a strike, during which 1,500 militants broke through Israeli defences, captured the headquarters of several Israeli army brigades, killed hundreds of soldiers, and then captured 22 populated areas. point, killing about a thousand civilians there.

The Hamas strike on Israel on October 7 was aimed at derailing the Saudi-Israeli mega-deal, which included mutual diplomatic recognition and the construction, with US support, of a giant transport system linking the countries to India, each other and European markets. This deal was viewed by Iran as a large-scale threat and as an attempt to form a Saudi-Israeli bloc hostile to it. On the eve of the Hamas strike, the Saudi press had just published a number of reports indicating the speedy implementation of the deal, and the United States announced its plan for developing the infrastructure of these countries. Following the October 7 strike, Israel bombed Gaza and launched a ground offensive there, sparking anger in the Arab world. In such conditions, the Saudis, who claim leadership in the Arab world, were forced to freeze the deal with Israel.

But in any case, the Iranian message is clear. Iranians don't want a big war. Likewise, Hezbollah is acting cautiously, using only a small portion of its forces. It does not use its missile potential (from 100,000 to 200,000 missiles, including hundreds of high-precision ones) to strike deep into Israeli territory, and does not use the forces of its Radwan special forces, trained to penetrate Israel. So far, her actions have been carefully calibrated. Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces in areas bordering Lebanon and receives limited retaliatory strikes. Israel, for its part, also does not attack Hezbollah’s deep rear areas and does not bomb cities deep in Lebanon.

The US is holding back both. According to Bloomberg economists, in the event of a major Middle East war, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel, which would lead to a global economic recession and affect the American economy. On the eve of the election, the Biden administration is seeking to avoid such a development. Therefore, the United States restrains both sides with promises and threats.

But in any case, the Iranian message is clear. Iranians don't want a big war. Likewise, Hezbollah is acting cautiously, using only a small portion of its forces. It does not use its missile potential (from 100 to 200 thousand missiles, including hundreds of high-precision ones) to strike deep into Israeli territory, and does not use the forces of its Radwan special forces, trained to penetrate Israel. So far, her actions have been carefully calibrated. Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces in areas bordering Lebanon and receives limited retaliatory strikes. Israel, for its part, also does not attack Hezbollah’s deep rear areas and does not bomb cities deep in Lebanon.

The US is holding back both. According to Bloomberg economists, in the event of a major Middle East war, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel, which would lead to a global economic recession and affect the American economy. On the eve of the election, the Biden administration is seeking to avoid such a development. Therefore, the United States restrains both sides with promises and threats.

“Direct military participation in an operation against Israel is a red line,” said one of the commanders. He added: “Hamas tried to draw all the Axis Resistance factions into the battle and put them in an awkward position, but everyone understands this and is not ready for this. We will not intervene until Israel makes good on its threat to invade Gaza by land, and then we will answer to Hezbollah, not Hamas."

Although Israel invaded Gaza, Hezbollah does not enter into an all-out war with Israel, and neither does Iran. Without these two, the groups are not prepared to intervene, although they occasionally fire at US military bases in the region in a show of support for Hamas.

But why are Iran and Hezbollah avoiding all-out war with Israel? There are many reasons for this.

One of them, perhaps the main one, was named as an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. He told Al-Monitor that US officials explicitly told the Iraqis that in the event of a full-scale intervention by Iran or Hezbollah, they would in turn intervene militarily to protect Israel and that their target would be Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad, commanders of armed groups in Iraq and Lebanon, as well as vital installations in Iran. The two aircraft carrier groups that the Americans sent to support Israel are not yet involved in the war. But if Iran and Hezbollah bring their full military might, the US and Israel will do the same.

Iranians and their allies do not want a war that could turn their countries into ruins. Especially against the backdrop of political instability in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (in all countries of the Iranian bloc - the “Axis of Resistance”!), where protests against the Iranian regime and its allies occur from time to time. The revolutionary social uprisings of millions of people from Tehran to Beirut, aimed at providing the population with basic social services, against the Iranian empire and its proxies are another deterrent.

But there are others. Hanin Ghadar, who studies Hezbollah, provides her explanation in the pages of Foreign Policy about why Hezbollah and Iran do not benefit from being drawn into a full-scale war with Israel. Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful asset in the region, and it trains and to some extent leads Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria. There is no point in throwing it into battle with Israel without hope of victory and bleeding it today just for the sake of Hamas.

Iranian scholar Ali Alfoneh, a fellow at the Washington Arab Gulf Institute, agrees with this point of view. According to him, Hezbollah is Iran's main "bodyguard" in the region because its huge missile potential, aimed at Israel, was created with the support of Tehran, as a trump card in case the Israelis dare to bomb Iran and destroy its strategic nuclear programme. Hezbollah is of exceptional value to Iran primarily because it is a tool to deter Israel from directly attacking Iran - an attack to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile defence industries.

In addition, both experts in their publications indicate that Iran’s main goals have already been achieved by the operation of October 7. Hanin Ghadar notes that the Saudi-Israeli deal is now frozen until further notice and this is the main thing. Moreover, following the Israeli bombing of Iranian targets in Syria that continued for years, and following a series of covert operations inside Iran, where Israeli agents killed a number of nuclear scientists and several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, the Iranian regime may claim that he had finally responded and that the October 7 attack demonstrated the strength of the "Axis of Resistance". Therefore, Ghadar further argues, “using the Hezbollah card now cannot add anything to these benefits.”

And yet, the threat of a major war between Israel and the “Axis of Resistance” exists. Not a single force, despite carefully calibrated attacks, can fully foresee the consequences of the blows inflicted on it. If a Hezbollah missile destroys a residential building in Israel with all its inhabitants, or if something similar happens in Lebanon, or if major military leaders of one of the sides are killed, an unpredictable reaction is possible in order to “save face.”

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