War of attrition or who will hit harder
West vs Global South deadly blows

ANALYTICS  22 November 2023 - 10:00

The war in Ukraine has been lasting for almost 2 years. At the same time, both conflicting parties have not achieved tangible progress and have a long way to reach a final victory. Russia can be credited with retaining control of Crimea, Luhansk and part of Donetsk oblast, as well as capturing Mariupol. Ukraine succeeded in repelling the blitzkrieg in the form of an attack on Kyiv, retained control over Kharkiv, and liberated Kherson from occupation. Today we will try to understand what slowed down the fighting and what measures the United States and Russia took to weaken each other, ensuring divert of resources and public attention from the conflict in Ukraine.

US strikes first

Let's start with the fact that Ukraine quite confidently repelled the first ill-conceived and hastily carried out offensive of the Russian army against Kyiv and some other directions. The Ukrainian army turned out to be much better trained and equipped than its opponents expected., mainly thanks to the consolidated support of the West. Naturally, Russia, perfectly aware of its production capabilities, began looking for support in the East and soon found it in the person of the mighty China, far ahead of Russia in economic power. This situation could not help but alarm the United States, which sought ways to dissuade the PRC from military and economic assistance to its northern neighbour. Taiwan turned out to be such a lifesaver; this heavily armed island, although it does not have the status of an officially recognized state, has been acting independently of China for more than 70 years.

Being geographically very close to mainland China, Taiwan has always felt the support of the United States as an unsinkable aircraft carrier and therefore was generously supplied with weapons and high technology by the overseas curator.

Therefore, Taiwan served as an ideal diversionary tool for the United States to hint to the PRC about the far-reaching consequences of its support for the Russian Northern Military District and, secondly, to divert material and other resources from the Western to the Eastern direction. Did this tactic work? Undoubtedly, China is a traditionally cautious Eastern country that avoids open military clashes with anyone as much as possible, and the presence of a large number of US aircraft ships and allies near its borders forced China to transfer a huge amount of manpower and equipment to the region. In addition, the icing on the American cake was the serious restrictions in the field of high technology, so necessary for any country that has taken the path of intensive economic development. Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States is also indicative, where he held quite friendly negotiations with D. Biden, which did not stop the latter from rudely calling Xi Jinping a dictator immediately after the meeting.

Counterattack from the Global South

How did the global South respond to such manoeuvres? And then the recent events in Gaza come to mind. The scale of this terrorist attack is astonishing, as is the high level of preparation. In leaked videos of Hamas training, Russian speech is audible, which suggests certain links to Russia. What goals did the Global South achieve by staging a terrorist attack in Israel? The main goal, undoubtedly, was to divert the attention of the Western public from the conflict in Ukraine, and as a result, create problems for politicians in allocating financial assistance to the latter. In addition, this provocation also had a second goal - to divide Western society and the democratic world into supporters and opponents of Israel’s harsh response in Gaza, which also does not contribute to the consolidation of the Western public and elites around the Ukrainian problem.

The success of this provocation is visible to the naked eye - Western liberals and leftists unanimously condemned Israel’s actions. As a result, demonstrations of supporters and opponents of Israel taking place in Europe attract the same number of participants. In South America, Palestine is supported by the vast majority of countries, with the possible exception of newly elected Argentine President Javier Milei, who is an ardent supporter of Israel and proposed moving the capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem long before the October 7 attack. Public attention shifted to the Middle East to a very large extent, and in addition, the United States and Europe were forced to provide significant military assistance to Israel in the form of sending equipment and weapons, mainly ammunition and air defence systems. US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin also spoke about support for Israel, who met with the military and defence leadership of this country on October 13. The head of the Pentagon confirmed that the United States will continue to supply Israel with the necessary ammunition, air defence systems, and other types of weapons, and will also increase its Mediterranean force with a second aircraft carrier, missile destroyers, and other warships. This situation has given rise to justifiable concerns from the President of Ukraine, who said on October 10 that Western attention to the Ukrainian conflict could weaken due to an attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas on Israel.

“The attention of the world community to Ukraine may decrease,” he said in an interview with the French TV channel France 2. At the same time, the Ukrainian president indicated that “if assistance to Kyiv is interrupted, time will play on Russia’s side.” At the same time, Zelenskyy expressed hope for continued support from the United States. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin's surprise visit to Kyiv on November 20 was intended to reassure Zelenskyy and convince him that the United States has not forgotten about Ukraine and will continue to support it for as long as necessary.

So, the global West and South continue to inflict significant informational, economic and other blows on each other, using the entire arsenal of modern hybrid wars. Ukraine and the Middle East are in turmoil, and what will be the direction of the next strike, and who will deliver it, I think we will find out in the foreseeable future.

Caliber.Az