Israel, US split Gaza into separate blockaded areas
Caliber.Az review

ANALYTICS  05 December 2023 - 15:51

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has recently visited Israel. This is his third visit since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Al-Monitor reported that Blinken held difficult talks with the Israeli leadership. In particular, he told his interlocutors that Israel would not be able to count on Washington's long-term support during the operation, which aims to eliminate Hamas, entrenched in the Gaza Strip. Blinken made it clear that American pressure on Israel for a ceasefire would become "unbearable" in a matter of weeks.

After the Hamas raid on October 7, in which some 1,300 Israeli civilians (among them about 1,000 civilians) were killed, the Israeli leadership decided to completely eliminate Hamas. In the course of the military operation, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is systematically cutting Gaza into separate sectors.

The intention is to isolate Hamas units in selected small areas, denying them the ability to interact and move, encircle and destroy them. IDF units advance using a firewall tactic: artillery and aircraft destroy all buildings used or likely to be used by Hamas fighters for fire and ambushes; underground tunnels are blown up with special bombs or seawater is pumped in. Infantry under the cover of tank guns then enter the area, where little remains, and carry out a final sweep.

Blinken didn't just report on the time constraints for the Israeli operation. He added: "I have made it clear that before Israel resumes major military operations, it must develop plans for the humanitarian protection of civilians - plans that will minimize further casualties among innocent Palestinians. This means taking better measures to protect civilian lives, including by clearly and precisely designating areas and locations in south-central Gaza where residents can be safe and out of the line of fire."

A source close to the Israeli military cabinet told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "The Americans do not want a repeat of the scenes of destruction in the north of the Gaza Strip and their transfer to the south." The US administration has been heavily criticised because of the number of deaths and refugees over the past month. It thinks Israel should continue the operation, but it also thinks the operation should be conducted differently, with fewer civilian casualties and without evacuating millions of civilians from their homes."

However, it is impossible to conduct the operation without the constant displacement of Gaza's two million people. The IDF, as mentioned above, is cutting Gaza into separate blockaded areas - that is the plan. It has already begun operations in the south of the Strip, where the bulk of Palestinians have congregated, including 700,000 people who fled from the north of the Strip, from Gaza City. Fighting has been going on in the city itself for weeks, but now it seems to have spread throughout the entire sector.  To avoid huge casualties among residents, Israel periodically orders civilians to move to areas that are not currently being bombed or attacked.

In this way, the IDF intends to move the population from one area to another, destroying Hamas's communications system, their infrastructure and defence systems throughout the Gaza Strip. Of course, unarmed or lightly armed Hamas will be able to move with the civilian population, but in this case, they will lose heavy weapons, especially rocket systems, as well as tunnels, communications, strongholds, underground factories producing weapons, and lose combat-ready formations. Israel then plans to establish its control in the ruins of Gaza, mopping up Hamas remnants, and then possibly hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, whose official authorities are now in Ramallah.

The problem with the Israeli plan has been the huge casualties in Gaza. At present, we are already talking about 15,000 dead alone, of whom a significant proportion are civilians. With such intensity of military action in the enclave - the territory with the highest population density on the planet - this is inevitable. Moreover, the people of Gaza are suffering from water and food shortages.

The US is an ally of Israel. They are not against the destruction of Hamas. But from Washington's point of view, there is an unpleasant situation.

Firstly, the reaction of the Arab world. It is strongest in the two States closest to the war zone, Egypt and Jordan. In both countries, the economies are in bad shape, especially in Egypt, where about 70 per cent of the population is at or below the poverty line and inflation is as high as 40 per cent. In Jordan, about half of the population is Palestinian, some of whom have relatives in Gaza.

Mass demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza took place in both countries, with participants in Egypt shouting anti-government slogans including "Bread, Freedom, Justice!", the slogan of the Arab Spring of 2011-2013. - the slogan of the 2011-2013 Arab Spring. In the wake of the Arab Spring, it has become clear that no matter how stable the government of an Arab country appears to be, it can be washed away by a tidal wave of popular multi-class revolt. The US administration is well aware that the longer the Israeli operation goes on, the more casualties in Gaza, the more the population of the Middle East boils over and the greater the likelihood of a repeat of the Arab Spring. The Americans do not want the US-loyal Arab regimes in Egypt and Jordan to be swept away.

Second, as American researcher Genev Abdo points out in her publication on the website of the Washington-based Arab Gulf Institute, "American Muslims and Arabs are now, perhaps more than ever, ready to speak out against US policy and against Biden personally.... There have been calls on social media not to vote in the 2024 presidential election and not to give any support to a candidate who endorses continued Israeli violence in Gaza, which could prove disastrous for Biden. Muslims and Arabs are voting for Democrats by significant margins, and, in states like Michigan, where Biden won by a narrow margin in 2020 and is poised to win in 2024; a boycott could cost him the election."

Finally, third, as tensions rise in the Middle East, the likelihood of a regional war between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and its coalition (the "Axis of Resistance") on the other, is increasing. Yemen's Houthis, Iraq's Shiite militias and their friends in Syria, and Lebanon's Hezbollah are all allies of Iran. Hamas is also part of the coalition. Members of the "Axis of Resistance" systematically fire on the Israeli and US military in the region in response to the Israeli operation in Gaza.

In addition, the Houthis are attacking civilian ships in the Red Sea. This could lead to an expansion of the war zone and a jump in oil prices. In the event of a full-scale war between the US-Israeli coalition and the Iranian bloc, according to Bloomberg economists' calculations, oil prices could reach $150 a barrel, leading to a global economic recession.  That's highly disadvantageous to US companies and Biden, who has an election coming up in a year. And while both sides of the conflict fear a large-scale war and try to calibrate their operations, skirmishes can always escalate.

Therefore, it is important to the US that Israel ends the Gaza operation as soon as possible. This does not suit the Netanyahu government. The ruling coalition's ratings in Israel have plummeted since Israel missed a Hamas strike on 7 October. According to opinion polls, if elections were held today, the ruling coalition would win 45 seats in parliament (Knesset) instead of 64.

The interests of the Israeli and US governments are diverging. Netanyahu cares about destroying Hamas in order to maintain his position and justify himself for the failure of 7 October. He doesn't care how long it takes, months or even a year. The Biden administration, by contrast, cares about ending the war as quickly as possible, and will press the Israeli government to that end. The reality of the war, its duration and its methods will be determined by the equilibrium of these two forces.

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