"Yerevan will have to plead with Moscow and Baku over the Zangezur corridor"
Mitrakhovich, Gerdin talk to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  18 January 2024 - 15:56

Yerevan has kicked off the new political season after the New Year holidays with another series of ambiguous statements. This time Prime Minister Pashinyan went on to rant about the Zangezur corridor. It is not immediately clear whether Pashinyan is bargaining when he says that Armenia is ready to provide transport from the western regions of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic "on the same conditions as Iran provides this road to Azerbaijan", or simply looking for counter-arguments not to do so.

"There is no mention of opening the so-called Zangezur corridor in the November 10 tripartite declaration. If anyone finds such a clause, I promise a financial reward, but there's nothing in this document," he said, adding that all regional communications should remain under the jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass. Baku's claims that there are clauses on the corridor in the trilateral statement and that it is up to the Russian side to ensure its security do not correspond to reality, the Armenian head of government also noted.

"Everything is the opposite. It says that Armenia guarantees the security of communications on its territory. That is logical. What else could it be?" said Pashinyan.

Later, Pashinyan managed to link the issue of the Zangezur corridor with Armenia's "Crossroads of Peace" initiative in a new statement on January 17.

What does Pashinyan mean and what is he trying to achieve with his new conclusions on the Zangezur corridor? The Caliber.Az correspondent asked Russian experts about it.

According to Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and a researcher at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Pashinyan is trying to demonstrate his independence from Russia in his new statements, as he has started to question the points of the trilateral statement of 10 November 2020.

"In this way, he is trying to emphasise Armenia's subjectivity, the fact that the main decision on the Zangezur corridor depends on him. But for Moscow, it seems that Pashinyan is trying to distance himself from Russia, to show that he is not dependent on it. It would be rational for Armenia to maintain maximum cooperation with Russia, both from a military-strategic and an economic point of view," says Mitrakhovich.

According to him, it is difficult to understand Prime Minister Pashinyan's logic. Especially if the risk of military escalation increases for Yerevan. Who is Armenia going to call on to help then?

"The game of subjectivity and independence is certainly a good thing, but it is hard for me to imagine that the US and France will solve Armenia's security problems in the region on its behalf. Pashinyan should think carefully before finally deciding on a political course, as Armenia has no real allies in the region apart from Moscow," Mitrakhovich stresses.

At the same time, political expert Vladislav Gerdin noted that everyone is used to Pashinyan's ability to make absurd statements and reinterpret treaties.

"Yerevan's desire to obtain as many benefits and preferences as possible through cooperation on the Zangezur corridor can be seen behind all of Pashinyan's statements. Both from Russia and Azerbaijan. Because everything that is said is clearly aimed at damaging the interests of the parties and forcing them into a discussion. But the fact of the matter is that Pashinyan, who has been involved in this polemic for years, is demonstrating a progressive political blindness. The truth is that Armenia has already lost some of its likely preferences after Iran and Azerbaijan agreed on an alternative route. The likelihood of these preferences is diminishing by the day, as is the willingness of investors to engage with Armenia and its absurd projects such as the 'Crossroad of Peace'. The significance of Armenia's position on this issue is on the wane almost by the hour. Instead of making long and sometimes provocative statements, Pashinyan should urgently get out of the 'realm of illusions' where he is staying, otherwise in the near future the situation will change exactly the opposite: Yerevan will have to beg Russia and Azerbaijan to join the Zangezur corridor project and offer something in return," Gerdin said.

Caliber.Az