Hysterical Europe, fickle Armenia, rebellious Texas
Weekly review with Azerbaijani political analyst

ANALYTICS  28 January 2024 - 12:35

The main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries have been described in “Events” show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev at Caliber.Az.

AZERBAIJAN - ARMENIA

The most important news of the past week was the resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, or simply PACE, denying the powers of the Azerbaijani delegation.

Taking into account the PACE’s various claims to Azerbaijan, it is absolutely clear to everyone that the main motive was the Karabakh issue, in particular, Azerbaijan’s independent restoration of its territorial integrity and full sovereignty, which is offensive to Europe.

The Europeans are displeased that the upcoming snap presidential elections will be held for the first time throughout Azerbaijan, former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov told Caliber.Az.

PACE is one of those organisations that, during more than twenty years of Azerbaijan’s membership in it, turned a blind eye to the occupation of Karabakh by Armenia and the trampled rights of Azerbaijani refugees and displaced people.

The Azerbaijani delegation, without waiting for an obvious solution, announced that it saw no point in continuing cooperation and left the Europeans alone with their complexes.

“Amid the unbearable atmosphere of racism, Azerbaijanophobia and Islamophobia in PACE, the Azerbaijani delegation decides to cease its activity in PACE until further notice,” Azerbaijani representatives said.

It is noteworthy that the Armenian delegation consisting of four people unanimously voted for the resolution. Three of them belong to the ruling Civil Contract party. Amid Yerevan’s statements about its readiness for peace, such a step by the ruling party looks eloquent.

The PACE decision does not entail any serious sanctions for Azerbaijan. The initiators hoped that Baku would value the reputational damage and would make concessions to ridiculous demands and accusations.

They forgot that if Baku was ready to fulfill their demands, then twenty per cent of Azerbaijan’s lands would still be under occupation. They are apparently unable to realise this logical connection.

Moreover, during a press conference following a meeting of the Eurepean Council in Brussels, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, spoke about “the EU’s concern regarding the claims of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Armenian territories.”

He threatened that any violation of Armenian sovereignty would have serious consequences for Baku. We admit that old Borrell has age-related hearing problems, but we have noticed that younger officials both in Europe and in Armenia also misinterpreted  President Aliyev’s words.

Few people doubt that France is actively engaged in the global anti-Azerbaijani policy. The recent decision of the French Senate testifies to this.

“We will protect our overseas territories and fulfill our responsibilities in 2024. I could mention the Balkans, Armenia, which attract our attention. We strengthen our position and make historical decisions, especially regarding Armenia, which I just mentioned,” President Macron said in his welcoming speech to the French armed forces on January 20.

These are the ambitions of a great nation. Don't you think this phrase is too old? A person who is trying to revive a country and its international prestige at the current stage of history must use more flexible phrases? However, in fact the provincial Nazism is obvious.

Moreover, it is quite comical amid the recent French foreign policy fiascoes. There is a strange parallel between the overseas territories of France and the Balkans with Armenia.

Has Macron really decided to include Armenia and the Balkans in his overseas territories? Did he ask the Balkans? As for Armenia, it will sign a similar status if other neighbouring powers allow it.

As for other powers, Russia again persistently reminded the Armenians of itself. A few days ago, Moscow conveyed an invitation to Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to visit the Russian Federation to discuss the peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku.

Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova noted that the invitation to Mirzoyan has been sent repeatedly since September 2023, and the recent message was sent several days ago.

Mirzoyan made a number of statements regarding a peaceful settlement of the situation. He once again dismissed the commitment to open a corridor from mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.

He also spoke about the possibility of collecting data to give the remaining maps of minefields.

A few days later, the Armenian National Security Service announced that eight new documents with information about minefields in Karabakh had been revealed, and that in the coming days they would be transferred to the Azerbaijani side. However, for a long time the Armenian side claimed that it had sent all the maps of minefields it had. It is unclear whether Armenia told a lie then or now.

Interesting news has appeared recently. Yerevan and Tbilisi signed a strategic partnership agreement during Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Georgia. We welcome friendship between neighbours. Not to act against us is the main thing. Baku will carefully observe.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israel Defence Forces continues its operation in the biggest city in the southern Gaza Strip - Khan Younis. The Israeli military discovered cells at the end of a kilometre-long mine-laden tunnel in which Hamas was holding about 20 hostages.

Throughout the past week, the sides have been trying to agree on a truce. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas demand for a ceasefire in exchange for the return of all hostages on January 21.

On January 25, Israel and Hamas reached a preliminary agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war within a month as part of the ceasefire. Israel is promoting the idea of a “staged deal” - a ceasefire during the gradual release of hostages, including civilians and military personnel.

Hamas, in turn, demands an agreement on a permanent ceasefire in exchange for the release of prisoners of war. According to the latest data, 132 people are being held captive in the Gaza Strip.

On January 26, the International Court of Justice issued its initial decision in South Africa's case against Israel, ruling that Palestinians have a right to protection from acts of genocide by Israel and ordering Tel Aviv to take all possible measures to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza, to punish those involved and to improve the humanitarian situation in the sector.

Members of the judicial panel voted for almost all the measures requested by South Africa, but not for an order to immediately end the Israeli military operation.

The decisions of the International Court of Justice are final and not subject to appeal, but the court is unable to enforce them. Despite this aspect, this court decision will certainly increase international pressure on Israel.

US President Joe Biden insists on a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, despite the disagreement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the White House stressed. It seems that the US ignores the tenacity of the Israeli prime minister and simply continues making statements to maintain the image of an unbiased arbiter.

Meanwhile, the crisis in the Red Sea continues. Strikes by the US-British coalition on Houthi positions have not greatly reduced the threat of new attacks on ships passing along the Yemeni coast. The coalition and the Houthis continue striking.

In case of any scenario, cargo carriers have already stopped to hope for a quick settlement of the problem and have prepared for bypassing this water area for many months, which will inevitably increase the cost of transported goods (15 per cent of world trade).

Companies are spending more on transport, and some are forced to stop production, as modern supply chains are designed to timely and uninterruptedly supply the components from all over the world.

US Tesla company has already announced that due to the crisis in the Red Sea it will suspend production at a plant near Berlin from January 29 for two weeks. The Swedish Volvo company stopped car assembly in Belgium for three days, while the French Michelin company stopped tire production in Spain for two days.

However, according to the experts, the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and therefore the Suez Canal, is not the worst incident that can happen.

According to the experts, Tehran, which controls the Houthis, if it is directly drawn into the war, may close the Strait of Hormuz.

If this happens, the world will lose huge supplies of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf countries and plunge into a deep energy crisis.

UKRAINE

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue repelling the offensive of the Russian army along the entire front line. The intensive fighting is observed near the Donetsk suburb of Avdiivka.

An Il-76 plane has crashed in Russia’s Belgorod region this week. It was transporting 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war to Belgorod to exchange them on the border with Ukraine.

Besides the prisoners of war, there were six crew members and three accompanying people on board. Everyone died. Ukrainian media, citing the sources in the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down the plane.

However, these messages were deleted after the Russian side reported that there were Ukrainian prisoners of war on board. If the downing of Il-76 by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is confirmed, this will be a huge reputational blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Meanwhile, one of the main questions for Kyiv is the problem of time. How long will it be possible to hold back the onslaught of the Russian army taking into account few shells and other weapons? Retired Russian Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk previously stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces only had emergency stocks of weapons.

He said that these weapons will be enough for a maximum of a month if the West stops supplies to Ukraine. Meanwhile, a decision to render large-scale assistance to Ukraine has not yet been made either in the US or in Europe.

The matter rests in about $61 billion and 50 billion euros. The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations supported a bill to confiscate Russian frozen assets to send them to Ukraine.

Despite the document was approved by the relevant committees of both chambers, the entire Congress must still vote for it. This is unlikely to happen soon, the experts say. The US, shortly before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, had about $39.2 billion in Russian state reserves.

Ukraine held another round of negotiations with the US and France to conclude bilateral agreements on security guarantees. Two weeks ago a similar agreement was concluded with the UK.

The UK has promised to render military aid worth $3.2 billion in 2024. Eleven countries have committed to sign guarantee agreements with Kyiv.

If each of them gives $3 billion, then Ukraine will receive about $30 billion compared to  more than $100 billion in large-scale aid, which will never be rendered.

US

US ex-President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire presidential primary. As for 75 per cent of the ballots, 54.3 per cent of the primaries voted for Trump, while 43.6 per cent voted for his only rival, former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Two contenders will face primaries in Haley's home state of South Carolina, where she hopes to succeed.

Meanwhile, the US breaking news is not directly related to the elections. It appears that the migration crisis in the US is so serious that it could serve as a catalyst for a major constitutional conflict. The calls for secession from the US have intensified in Texas, amid immigration scandals.

The reason was a Supreme Court decision that allows federal authorities to remove the barbed wire wall that Texas Governor Greg Abbott began building along the border with Mexico.

The Texas government, in turn, announced its readiness to protect the wall. The police and the Texas National Guard have recently begun restoring barbed wire barriers that were dismantled by the Supreme Court.

Moreover, Republican Governor of Virginia Glenn Youngkin announced the dispatch of 100 National Guard servicemen to assist Governor Abbott. Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis sent 800 National Guard servicemen, as well as police officers.

The rights of states and the federal government several times in the US history was regulated by the Doctrine of Nullification - the doctrine of the right of an American state to declare any federal act unenforceable on its territory.

According to the same doctrine, if it is impossible to reach a compromise, the states have the right to secession. The theory of individual states' rights played an important role in the evolution of the conflict between the North and the South, which then led to the Civil War. It seems that internal contradictions in the modern US are approaching a critical level, very close to the level of the mid-19th century.

Caliber.Az