Pashinyan's hints at changing constitution signal his strive to abandon "miatsum" idea
From illusions to awakening

ANALYTICS  06 February 2024 - 15:44

Over the past few weeks, we have seen Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan systematically promoting the idea of adopting a new constitution for the nation. First, there was talk of the possibility of constitutional change, then more recently of the need for a national referendum. If he sticks with it, in one or two weeks we will see a decree (or some other legal act, depending on Armenian law) setting the date for the plebiscite. However, many in Azerbaijan doubt how soon this will happen, and whether it will happen at all.

But stepping back from the peace process and taking a wider view of the problem, it is clear that the very fact that this question is being addressed indicates a significant paradigm shift in Armenian consciousness. Perhaps we need to compare it with something similar to understand what is happening.

The last time the Armenian authorities talked about anything which was against the dominant notions in society was Ter-Petrosian's famous article "War or Peace? It's time to think about it", in which he wrote, among other things: "Armenia and Karabakh are stronger today than ever before, but if the conflict is not resolved, they will become immeasurably weaker in a year or two. What we refuse today, we will ask for in the future, but we will not get it".

This cost Ter-Petrosian his presidency. The Karabakh clan that replaced him, represented by Kocharian and Sargsyan, chose the path of refusing to compromise, preferring the regime of extracting all possible benefits from the Karabakh project. With one eye they counted the money they had taken from Karabakh and Armenia, and they kept another eye on how Azerbaijan was developing, what weapons it was buying, and who it was befriending. In 2016, all their pessimism was fully justified. The defeat of Armenian positions, the elimination of hundreds of soldiers and the capture of two strategic heights under Baku's control marked a radical change in the military and strategic status quo.

It's hard to say, but the ominous portents of April 2016 likely prompted Sargsyan not to oppose the Velvet Revolution, thus avoiding responsibility for the impending war defeat and collapse of the "miatsum" project.

Of course, ordinary Armenians had no idea what their leaders were up to. They had sweet illusions about the "invincibility" of their army, the impregnability of the "Ohanian Line" and the inflexibility of their foreign patrons. Besides, they believed that Azerbaijanis were as propaganda depicted them - not warriors and generally forgetful. Even the above-mentioned clashes of April 2016 were perceived by the majority of Armenians not as a natural development, but as some kind of mishap.

Pashinyan's rise to power in 2018 has nothing to do with Armenians' willingness to make concessions. Rather, it can be explained by a sense of absolute recklessness. The Armenians were so convinced of their invincibility that they did not even talk about Karabakh during the revolution itself. Pashinyan himself did not talk of compromise even at that time. What's more, as everyone knows, after becoming prime minister he declared: "Karabakh is Armenia and that's it", while his military minister put forward the principle of "new war - new territories".

The uncompromising violence of the autumn of 2020 appaled Armenians. Azerbaijan's inexorable accumulation of power had an impact not only on the Armenian army but also on the consciousness of the Armenian people, causing a shock that was replaced by numbness. On September 20, 2023, an Azerbaijani soldier buried the last feeble hopes of the "miatsum" supporters.

And now, through an excruciating pain, an ordinary Armenian is forced to think. He is convinced that the world has failed to protect Armenian interests in any way. He begins to understand that this is related to the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by the world community, which means that legitimacy is a very important thing and not every country may transgress it.

Moreover, ordinary Armenians are convinced that Azerbaijan, in addition to being rich, understands how to use its wealth to defend its national interests. This simple analysis should gradually lead to the realisation that any revanchist scenario is, by definition, catastrophic. As Vahagn Aleksanyan, Pashinyan's associate and member of the Armenian National Assembly, recently put it: "When they talk about the return of Karabakh, what happens next? Let's assume that at some point the balance of power will shift in our favour, what will happen then? Will the situation that existed between 1991 and 2020 be repeated, and then Azerbaijan, once again stronger and with full international legitimacy, will win again? Do you understand that no country in the world has ever recognised Karabakh as a part of Armenia?"

Pashinyan's team still fears saying that Armenia's claims against Azerbaijan are fundamentally wrong. Instead, they continue to talk about "historical justice". This may be the case for Armenians, but from the point of view of international law, it is still illegitimate. Let us recall Pashinyan's recent interview with Armenian Public Radio. Among other things, he said: "If we formulate the task of strengthening the army in such a way that we strengthen it in order, for example, to restore historical justice, then a very simple question arises: why should others allow this army to become stronger so that, conditionally speaking, the issue of historical justice is resolved? At the very least, it is unreasonable to allow this army to become so strong to then have to deal with this strong army".

In other words, Pashinyan is afraid to tell his people openly that they are criminals not only legally, but also morally. This is the right strategy. Just as Chekhov urged to squeeze a slave's blood out of himself drop by drop, Pashinyan is trying to squeeze the "miatsum" fanatics out of the Armenians drop by drop. The problem is that processes in the world are happening at breakneck speed, and if Armenians do not want to remain on the margins of history, they should not squeeze out their fanaticism, but get rid of it once and for all.

Caliber.Az