Moscow presses, Yerevan resists, Ankara speeds up construction
Review by Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  13 February 2024 - 13:15

Throughout its history, the South Caucasus has been a crossroads of civilizations and trade routes, one of the key geo-economic hubs of Eurasia. After Baku's victory in the 44-day Patriotic War and the subsequent counter-terrorist operation last September, there were excellent prerequisites for a more complete use of the transportation potential by unblocking the roads between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In an interview with the Izvestia newspaper published on February 12, Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov noted that it is important for the regional countries to open as soon as possible the transportation corridor connecting the main part of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This work would have progressed faster if Armenia had not delayed negotiations on the opening of the corridor.

The formation of railway and road infrastructure of the future Zangazur corridor in the liberated territories of Azerbaijan will be a significant impetus for expanding the potential of the Middle Corridor, and for multiplying the growth of transit transportation between East and West. The existence of such potential is evidenced by the fact that in the times of the USSR, 7-12 million tons of cargo were transported annually along the transport lines laid through Zangazur.

Alas, but contrary to the provisions of the trilateral statement on the ceasefire in Karabakh signed on November 10, 2020, by the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and the Prime Minister of Armenia, over the past three years Yerevan has not taken concrete steps to open transport communications in the region. This message was reiterated in an interview with the Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Yevdokimov with the Izvestia newspaper.

“For various reasons that are not very clear to me, the Armenian side delays negotiations on the issue of opening a transportation corridor from the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. For the Azerbaijani side it is extremely important to have a stable transportation route with Nakhchivan: during the First Karabakh War all communications were interrupted, electricity supply to Nakhchivan was cut off, so the safety of the route is not an abstract issue for Baku," the Russian diplomat noted.

According to him, Russia was ready to restore the railway line passing through the territory of Armenia quite quickly and at its own expense: "Tunnels have been preserved on this route, I think there is a bridge there as well.”

As a result, the Russian ambassador emphasized, last year Baku and Tehran signed an agreement on the construction of a railroad through Iran, this section is a little longer, just over 60 km, the route is more complicated, but the works are already underway. The diplomat noted that through the use of this route, it will be possible to deliver Russian cargoes through Azerbaijan and Iran, and later to Türkiye after the connection of Turkish railroad lines with Nakhchivan.

It is noteworthy that a little less than a month ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also accused Armenia of dragging out the negotiation process and hindering the opening of this crucial component of the Middle Corridor. "Unfortunately, the opening of such a favourable route for Armenia through Syunik province still remains on paper. I see the reason in the position of Yerevan, which is experiencing difficulties in fulfilling its obligations to open the routes just as it is written in the trilateral statement," Lavrov said, underlining that Yerevan is putting forward new requirements in terms of ensuring security along the route, etc.

It is relevant to note here that laying railway communications through Zangazur is an optimal option for Armenia itself, both in terms of the convenience of the route and the optimality of its logistics, as well as in terms of expenditures for the modernization of track infrastructure.

At the end of last year, Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan noted that the approximate cost of the 46-kilometer Horadiz (Azerbaijan) - Yeraskh (Armenia) railroad was calculated a year ago and is estimated at about $230 million, which, given Russia's readiness to finance these expenses, is quite a feasible undertaking. 

"The opening of the Zangazur corridor contributes to economic prosperity and will create many opportunities for Armenia itself. It will also allow us, together with Georgia, to compete for international traffic, increase the volume of operations in this sphere and put an end to conflicts, establishing peace and stability in the region," SOCAR President's Advisor Elchin Aghakishiyev said at a conference held in Baku the other day.

Experts of the international company Fitch Solutions hold a similar opinion: according to their forecasts, a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia may be concluded as early as the first half of 2024, which will significantly accelerate the process of opening the Zangazur corridor.

How soon the political establishment in Yerevan will mature to understand the historical prospects for lasting peace in the South Caucasus and the benefits that the opening of transport communications will bring to Armenia itself is largely a rhetorical question.

Nevertheless, even in the absence of constructive approaches in Yerevan, Baku has developed and is implementing alternative options, in particular, the Araz corridor. Thus, on October 6, 2023, a ceremony of laying the foundations of a road bridge and border-customs infrastructure between Azerbaijan and Iran was held near the Aghband village, Zangilan district. The road and border-customs infrastructure facilities created here will serve to increase transit cargo transportation through the territory of the two countries and facilitate entry/exit to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

In particular, the new bridge is a key component of the 123.6-kilometer-long Horadiz-Jabrayil-Zangilan-Aghband highway, which is currently under construction, and in the future, this highway will be connected to the transport communications of Nakhchivan, with access to Türkiye. At the same border section in Aghband, the construction of railway infrastructure is planned in the coming years (unless agreements are reached with Armenia).

In general, the formation of the Zangazur corridor infrastructure in Azerbaijan is progressing very well: almost 90 per cent of construction work on the Horadiz-Jabrayil-Zangilan-Aghband highway of the first technical category has been completed.

At the same time, about half of the 110.4-km single-track railway segment of the Zangazur corridor, which runs through the territory of Jabrayil and Zangilan districts to the border village of Aghband, has been laid for three years. The laying of this steel main line is carried out by Turkish companies with the support of local contractors, and all works are planned to be completed in 2025.

Baku independently finances all work on the formation of the infrastructure of the Zangazur corridor on the territory of the republic, and the plans to extend this route through the territory of neighbouring countries are also being consistently implemented.

The key partner in this area is brotherly Türkiye. "Construction of the Azerbaijani section of the Zangazur corridor, starting from Baku and up to Horadiz, is nearing completion. The length of the Turkish section of the corridor is 224 kilometres.

In general, the whole process of creating this corridor will take several years, and tentatively by 2028 we will complete all the works, thus Türkiye will have direct and easier access to the Turkic countries of Central Asia," the country's Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said in an interview with Turkish TVNET channel this January.

According to the minister, the existing road connecting Nakhchivan with Türkiye, which is about 100 kilometres long, will need to be reconstructed. Its continuation will be the Iğdır-Kars railroad, for which tender procedures have already been carried out, and direct construction work on laying the railroad tracks will start this year.  

Caliber.Az