Peace and stability in peril as Armenian revanchists craving for power
"Together" against Pashinyan

ANALYTICS  20 February 2024 - 11:52

After several months of calm in Armenia, a new wave of street protests for a change of government appears to be on the horizon. The last opposition protests in Armenia with a similar demand took place in September last year after Azerbaijan had fully restored its sovereignty and territorial integrity as a result of anti-terrorist measures in Karabakh. At that time, the parliamentary opposition initiated the process of Pashinyan's impeachment. However, it failed to achieve its goal because it did not have the majority of votes in the National Assembly, and the protests did not gather the critical mass of people necessary for a change of power.

Recently, Armenian media reported that another protest is being prepared to take place on February 20 in Yerevan's Freedom Square. It was initiated by the "Together" movement, coordinated by Aram Sargsyan (Democratic Party of Armenia). The participants of the "Together" movement accuse Pashinyan of abusing the people's vote of confidence. They say he is endangering the country's future. By the way, the movement has organised actions with the same demands before, but only a small number of people have taken to the streets in response to their call.

Concerns over Pashinyan's intention to amend the constitution and remove provisions from the country's basic law that include territorial claims to Azerbaijan have stirred a new round of outrage in the Armenian opposition. The opposition saw this as conceding to Baku.

Indeed, Azerbaijan insists that violations of our territorial integrity and sovereignty reflected in Armenia's current constitution and laws must be removed. President Ilham Aliyev's message to the Armenian side at his inauguration ceremony was clear: if there are no changes in Armenia's domestic legislation, there will be no peace treaty between the two sides.

"If territorial claims against us are not abandoned, if Armenia does not bring its legislation into order, of course, there will be no peace treaty," Aliyev said in particular.

At the same time, there is cautious optimism that Armenia will revise its domestic legislation, perhaps very soon, after Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan decided at a meeting in Munich to hold a meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers to discuss the normalisation process. The opposition's attempt to bring the masses onto the streets will therefore be a continuing one. But will they manage to gather the necessary number of discontented people? It is unlikely that the Armenian opposition will be able to pose a real threat to Pashinyan's power, as in the past, for several reasons.

First, Pashinyan is still able to manoeuvre in Armenia's domestic political arena. Even after losing the war with Azerbaijan, he has managed to remain in power. Moreover, he enjoys more social support than his opponents. The Armenian community may not like Pashinyan, but they hate the Karabakh clan even more. This is what the elections in 2021 have shown.

Secondly, as his rise to power in 2018 has shown, Pashinyan is capable of actively working with the masses on the streets.

Moreover, a new war will lead to the final collapse of Armenia and its statehood, even if the opposition somehow manages to oust Pashinyan and the revanchists come to power. Armenian people, weary of losing and suffering, understand that they will not support a new war with Azerbaijan, and thus most likely will not support the opposition, including the Karabakh clan and its leaders represented by Kocharyan and Sargsyan. Therefore, no matter how the Armenian opposition struggles, Yerevan has no choice but to agree to Baku's demands and follow the peace agenda.

Commenting on the protest potential in Armenia and the probability of a change of power in Yerevan, Alexander Kobrinskiy, a doctor of history and director of the Russian Agency of Ethnic and National Strategy, told Caliber.Az that Russia is wary of those coming to power through a coup.

"It is obvious that Pashinyan is trying to be both 'smart and handsome' at the same time, playing with everyone and trying to win something everywhere, just like the fact that he has put Armenia up for auction. Pashinyan enjoys situational support from the West. But the West's aim is an 'invasion' of the region, intending to create chaos. But the Armenian people continue to trust and hope in Pashinyan. The Karabakh clan has lost much of its trust within Armenia. That is why, despite his disastrous mistakes, Pashinyan managed to keep the prime minister's seat.

There are still no masses behind 'Together'. Much is going to depend on how the external situation develops. It depends on how strong the financial support from abroad will be, how far it will go in friendship with the West, and so on. Russia fundamentally does not interfere in the internal politics of its allies and neighbours. That is where the authorities stand. That is why we are keeping a watchful eye. Unfortunately, Moscow does not support the pro-Russian forces in Armenia. The situation is the same as I have said. This is the reason why Russia is losing out to the West," Kobrinsky said.

Caliber.Az