Festive bonfire in Azerbaijan’s Khankendi, terrorist attack in Russia and French leader’s biceps
Weekly review on Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  24 March 2024 - 17:30

Caliber.Az demonstrates another episode of the “Events” show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN - ARMENIA

Novruz holiday was celebrated in Azerbaijan. On this occasion, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited liberated Khankendi, where he lit a festive bonfire in the main square.

The president emphasised that this was a great happiness.

“The vile plans were drawn up against our people on this square. The orders were given in this building to commit the Khojaly genocide. Today we are on this square. I would like to my dear people that I called this square “Victory” Square. From now on, this is Victory Square,” the president said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has recently visited Baku. Azerbaijan has previously stated unequivocally that it does not seek to become a NATO member, therefore Stoltenberg paid a visit to consolidate the stable and respectful relations that the sides have developed over many years.

During Stoltenberg’s visit to Baku, Assistant of the Azerbaijani President Hikmet Hajiyev left for China. Baku thereby once again demonstrated that it continues its policy towards equidistance from all centres of power and that the People’s Republic of China is important to Azerbaijan as a partner like Europe and the US. Hajiyev held a number of meetings in Beijing that will certainly consolidate the trend towards strengthening the partnership between Azerbaijan and China.

Meanwhile, the NATO Secretary General continued the tour throughout the South Caucasus. First, he flew to Tbilisi, where he announced Georgia as one of NATO’s closest partners, and promised to admit Georgia into the alliance after the reforms in the rule of law, including free and open parliamentary elections, to be implemented in the country.

This is a very strange statement, obviously designed to disguise the West's reluctance to deal with Georgia. However, this is beneficial to the ruling Georgian Dream party, which the opposition accuses of inconsistent integration with the West.

Stoltenberg said in Yerevan that he was “grateful to Armenia for its solidarity towards Ukraine,” leaving no opportunity for Armenia to leave Russia.

“We are interested in intensifying our cooperation with NATO, and I hope that the programme individually developed for Armenia will be adopted as soon as possible,” Pashinyan said.

During his visit to Armenia, Stoltenberg once again called on Yerevan and Baku to sign an agreement soon “which will open the way to normalisation of relations and bring sustainable peace to the peoples”.

Stoltenberg said that there are no imaginary threats to Armenia by Azerbaijan, and this inspires cautious optimism that the position of certain circles in the West tends to be constructive.

However, Pashinyan immediately flew to Brussels for an international Nuclear Energy Summit, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and, obviously, received new instructions. A slight hope appeared for Europe’s revival.

During that summit, President Macron spoke about the need to unite the EU's power grids with partners in the Balkans and the Caucasus. It is difficult to do this by maintaining tension in relations with Azerbaijan, which will be the main supplier of “green” energy to Europe.

However, some constructiveness was shown by Pashinyan in his characteristic eccentric manner, who intimidated his compatriots with a war at the end of the week (which, by the way, is already ending) if Armenia does not agree with Baku on the issue related to Azerbaijani villages which still under Yerevan’s control.

Finally, another positive news was the bilateral meeting between Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Sahiba Gafarova and President of the Armenian National Assembly Alen Simonyan.

The meeting was held within the 148th Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union held in Geneva. The sides discussed the issues related to the support that the parliaments of the two countries can render to facilitate the peace process amid the ongoing peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

RUSSIA

Following the results of the presidential election held in Russia, Vladimir Putin, having received more than 87 per cent of the votes, was elected president for the fifth time. However, someone really wanted to spoil the Russian leader’s holiday. A terrible terrorist attack has recently occurred at the Crocus City Hall concert complex in the Moscow region.

Several unknown camouflage people entered the complex and began shooting at point-blank range at everyone whom they saw. The terrorists also used Molotov cocktails. A huge area of Crocus City Hall burst into flame after an explosion.

Having committed massacres, the terrorists managed to escape from the scene. Four of them were detained in the Bryansk region on the border with Belarus and Ukraine. Investigative measures are underway.

No one had claimed responsibility for the attack yet. More than a hundred dead and over a hundred wounded have been reported, most of whom are in severe condition. The death toll is constantly growing. At the same time, Governor of the Moscow region Andrey Vorobyov said that the death toll will greatly increase.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry expressed condolences to the Russian side.

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

The hostilities were intense along the entire line of the Ukrainian front, but only in the direction of Avdiivka the Russian army managed to achieve success. Orlivka settlement was captured.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to compensate for the lack of shells by drone attacks on populated areas of Russia’s Belgorod region. Meanwhile, the Russians launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 22 at night.

A number of power plants throughout the country were damaged, including the biggest Dnieper Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia. Financial Times wrote that Washington urged Kyiv to stop attacks on Russian refineries.

According to the Financial Times, a decrease in Russian energy production volumes may provoke a global increase in prices for them. The US democratic administration does not need this on the eve of the elections.

Moreover, the Americans fear that Moscow will do something with the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which pumps Kazakh oil to the West through the Russian territory, in which such American giants as Chevron and Mobil are also involved.

However, the Ukrainians did not take into account the request. The Kuibyshev and Novokuibyshevsk oil plants in Russia’s Samara region were hit by drones on March 23 at night.

Meanwhile, the EU is very cautiously trying to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine - so far only interest income on these assets, which makes about $3.5 billion a year.

The experts stressed that further actions will depend on the reaction of Western bank account holders in other countries, such as the Gulf states, to this first step.

However, France behaves very curiously. During a month, Macron and his ministers have been either saying that they will fight with Russia or saying that they will not. Even Ukraine’s ardent friends have recently showed their true faces to Kyiv.

Together with China, Austria and other countries, Paris urged Ukraine to cancel the list of war sponsors, which includes the companies collaborating with the Russian military-industrial complex.

The reason for this requirement is cynically simple. There are French companies on this list. At the same time, Macron shared his premonition that Ukraine may collapse very soon, European Politico newspaper wrote, citing the sources.

Macron didn’t forget to take a photo of himself as a sweaty boxer. However, the West is not ready for military action.

Perhaps, the West is really ready for Plan X and entering the war, but not to help Kyiv fight for the Donbas or Zaporizhzhia, but to prevent the Russians from advancing further to the west, in particular to Odesa, if they break through the Ukrainian defence line.

Obviously, NATO does not want to allow Russia to conquer the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. After all, the Western countries rendered the most effective assistance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

One of the goals of the West is to pin Russia down in the Western seas and thus prevent it from remaining as a great power.

“The Russian side has been informed that France is already preparing a military contingent to be sent to Ukraine, at the initial stage - about 2,000 people,” director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin said.

MIDDLE EAST

During the outgoing week, the Israeli army carried out another operation at the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza, during which it captured about 650 fighters from various Palestinian factions.

According to the Israeli side, among those captured are senior members of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group. More than 140 Palestinian fighters were killed during the operation at the hospital.

The operation in the hospital caused Hamas to freeze the negotiations in Doha.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is touring the Middle East to discuss ceasefire negotiations, the release of hostages in Gaza, American opposition to the Israel Defence Forces’ military operation in Rafah and an increase in humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

Blinken met with Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman on March 20. The sides spoke about the possibility of concluding a long-awaited agreement on the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saudis want to see Tel Aviv’s readiness to create a Palestinian state.

During a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry following negotiations in Cairo, Blinken said that Washington considers Israel’s possible large-scale operation in Rafah as a mistake and cannot support such a step.

During his visit to Israel Blinken also directly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his military cabinet against the operation in Rafah. In turn, the Israeli prime minister told Blinken that Israel will not abandon its plans to carry out the operation and is ready to begin it even without US support.

Tension between Israel and the international community is growing as the humanitarian situation in Gaza worsens.

“Israel's restrictions on humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip may be regarded as a war crime,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said on March 19.

UK’s Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Cameron also harshly criticised Israel. The US urged Israel to lift restrictions and allow Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini to visit the Gaza Strip.

A day earlier, a UN diplomat publicly complained that Israel had blocked his entry and prevented him from visiting the besieged exclave. Israeli pressure on UNRWA intensified after Tel Aviv accused several agency employees of participating in the October 7 events.

However, Israel has not yet provided any evidence. Israel also denies restrictions on aid supplies to the Gaza Strip, arguing that the UN is responsible for blocking aid delivery.

However, this statement has also been repeatedly refuted by both the UN and Western countries, including the US. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warned on March 20 that residents of northern Gaza face widespread famine and are on the brink of starvation.

Meanwhile, there is interesting news in the camp of the Yemeni Houthis. The organisation appears to have taken a step toward increasing its foreign policy legitimacy.

The Houthis have assured Russia and China that their ships can pass through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without fear of attack.

According to the world media, the corresponding agreement was reached during negotiations between diplomats of the three countries in Oman.

The Houthi delegation was led by the spokesman for Ansar Allah Al-Houthi group Mohammad Abdul Salam. Ali Al-Gahum, a member of the Ansar Allah Political Bureau, said that Ansar Allah is interacting with Russia and China to weaken Western countries and destroy the concept of a unipolar world.

The Houthis, thanks to Russia and China, are turning from bandits and pirates into a legitimate ally of the Global South in the fight against the West.

This was the most important news of the outgoing week.

Caliber.Az