US, Western assurances of peacefulness - useless
Azerbaijan believes in deeds, not words

ANALYTICS  07 April 2024 - 11:48

According to the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry, the Armenian troops fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces 30 times in various directions of the conditional border over the past 24 hours.

Moreover, the enemy’s troops are on the conventional border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the direction of eastern Zangezur.

Despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen think that Armenia’s actions are not directed against Azerbaijan. For some reason their assurances do not inspire much confidence.

As for the Armenian officials’ statements, we do not trust them either.

First of all, it is necessary to believe our own eyes, in this case, intelligence and operational information from the conditional border.

Armenia, as we all see, does not agree to remove an item related to the territorial claims against Azerbaijan in its legislation. Armenia does not agree to close the representative office of a separatist entity on its territory (so-called “government” of some “Artsakh”). Armenia does not intend to liberate border villages.

What kind of trust can we talk about in such situation? So we trust them even less than those who call themselves the “international community” although this, of course, depends on the situation.

Sometimes we begin to believe those who call themselves the “international community” more than we believe Armenia. For example, when it, the self-proclaimed community, declares that “the European Union and Armenia are based on the same values” or the US promises to provide Armenia with financial assistance worth more than $65 million and we do not doubt.

No doubt forces us to take appropriate precautions.

Of course, options are possible, but I think the most optimal one would be a pre-emptive strike, because the concentration of troops on the conditional border poses a hypothetical threat to Azerbaijan’s security and is a legitimate goal.

Maybe we will surprise someone, but in international law there is such an aspect as “preventive war”.

Although in accordance with the jargon with buzzwords, we can call this a “peacekeeping operation”, “measures to suppress violation of the conventional border” or “agricultural work aimed at reducing the number of pests”.

We think that there will be a good lesson to the enemy and those who support the enemy as a result of the targeted destruction of enemy manpower and military equipment. Moreover, the word “targeted” does not mean that the number of victims will be reduced to the possible minimum. Surely not because we also learned the jargon with buzzwords.

The main thing is to achieve maximum result at minimum costs. Amid the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, no one may notice the murder of a fighter for whom $65 million and 270 million euros ($292 million) are planned to be allocated.

The positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were shelled and the troops gathered at the conditional border when the EU-US-Armenia meeting was held in Brussels.

The meeting itself, in our opinion, which is shared by Türkiye, creates another source of danger for the South Caucasus. The fact that it was not postponed, despite Azerbaijan’s fair comments is troublous.

The West has actively joined the policy of creating dividing lines and ultimately only aggravates situation in the South Caucasus.

This are not even “double standards”. This is what is called “we have decided whom we will support”.

Moreover, we have no doubts at all after the statement made by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, which he made immediately before the trilateral meeting with Pashinyan, von der Leyen and Blinken in Brussels, that “stable Armenia means stable South Caucasus”.

We should not forget that the options for immediate writing off of Armenia’s external debt or its restructuring are expected to be discussed. In general, Armenia is being fattened.

We remember well the position of the West. We will not forget the unprecedented support to Armenia, which kept the Azerbaijani territory under occupation for 25 years, and after 2020 demonstrated an unwillingness to come to terms with reality by preventing the reintegration of Karabakh into Azerbaijan.

We will not forget anything. As for the West’s intensified activity in the South Caucasus, its almost unconditional support for Armenia and attempts to put pressure on Azerbaijan is clear, namely, trade route and financial interests.

As for the Zangezur corridor, Azerbaijan and Türkiye, maybe Russia (this depends on the agreement related to the shares), will actually control the route connecting the Black Sea with the Caspian Sea.

This is one of the key routes that connect Europe with Central Asia and China. It is necessary to keep non-regional players, and especially the EU, away from this process, this route must not be controlled by the EU at all.

Caliber.Az