Armenia's floundering and a menacing lull in the Middle East
Caliber.Az weekly review

ANALYTICS  14 April 2024 - 13:28

Caliber.Az editorial staff presents the next issue of the program "Events" with Murad Abiyev, which reviews the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and not only.

Azerbaijan-Armenia

Muslims around the world celebrated the end of the great fasting and the Ramadan holiday this week. By tradition, President Ilham Aliyev addressed a congratulatory message to the nation. "I hope your prayers and wishes will be accepted by the Almighty, and this blessed holiday, becoming a celebration of kindness, feelings of mercy and compassion, will further strengthen unity and solidarity in our society," the President said among other things. We also congratulate all believers on this blessed holiday and ask the Almighty to accept your abstinence and your prayers.

Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov visited Kyrgyzstan, where he met with his Kyrgyz counterpart Jeenbek Kulubaev, as well as the country's President Sadyr Zhaparov. Bayramov then traveled to Minsk to participate in the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers. Interestingly, the chief Armenian diplomat Ararat Mirzoyan refused to attend the same summit.

For official Yerevan, the past week was marked by euphoria from the Brussels meeting on April 5. The same Mirzoyan mentioned earlier said in an interview with Public TV that the negotiations had stalled, and indirectly blamed the Azerbaijani side for that. National Assembly Speaker Alen Simonyan voiced a strange statement, saying that Yerevan may refuse to sign anything if the sides do not reach an agreement. I wonder what can be signed without agreeing on anything?

After that, Pashinyan himself spoke. First, during a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Armenian Prime Minister declared Armenia's readiness to reach solutions based on the principles agreed upon in Prague on October 6, 2022, in Brussels on May 14 and July 15, 2023, and, attention, in Granada on October 5, 2023. That is, he attempted to give the Granada meeting the status of a stage in the negotiation process. While it is clear even to a first-year law student that the Granada meeting cannot have such a status, because one of the contracting parties was absent. Let me remind you that President Aliyev refused to go to Granada to the summit of the European Political Community on the background of biased statements incompatible with the function of mediators made by the representatives of the West. I would also recall that this happened shortly after Baku's anti-terrorist activities in Karabakh last September. As a result, the quartet, consisting of Macron, Michel, Scholz and Pashinyan, announced a statement that contained elements of gross interference in Azerbaijan's internal affairs. In particular, it called for the unconditional return of Armenians to Karabakh. Although Baku had only one and the most legitimate condition - the returnees must accept Azerbaijani citizenship.

Curiously, Pashinyan is trying to resuscitate the stillborn Granada statement without his Western patrons being particularly inclined to do so. After all, if they were inclined to pedal this document, they would not hesitate to mention it in the statements made on the results of the recent Brussels meeting. Paris would have liked that very much, but apparently, Baku managed to convince Blinken and von der Leyen to refrain from such rash steps - it is not without reason that they called Aliyev before the meeting with Pashinyan. So, having shown something of his willfulness, the next day Pashinyan once again began processing the Armenian society to make sure that its illusions did not correspond to the harsh reality.

And all of this is accompanied by the permanent shelling of the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces on the conditional border. However, the resolution of one of these incidents inspires hope that all is not completely lost in the gradual development of trust between the countries. A border guard of the State Border Guard Service of Azerbaijan, while attempting to prevent a violation of the state border, was fired upon from a combat post of the Armenian Armed Forces, wounding Senior Lieutenant Rovshan Mammadov. The National Security Service of Armenia conducted an investigation, during which it was found out that an enlisted serviceman of the border troops of the Armenian National Security Service, together with his fellow servicemen, decided to cross the border unauthorized and return the lost cattle, thus violating the rules of service. Based on the results of the official investigation, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal case and the investigation is underway in order to bring the perpetrators to justice. It should also be added that the Armenian National Security Service expressed regret over the incident. This case shows that Yerevan, largely controlled by external players, sometimes tries to show that it is trying to maintain positive dynamics in the peace process.

Meanwhile, Tehran has finally issued a sharp reaction to the West's increased activity in the region. What is interesting is that the reaction was given not to the April 5 meeting in the EU-Armenia-U.S. format, but to the NATO summit in Brussels held a day earlier, on April 4. It was there, according to Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's Advisor on Foreign Affairs, that the program of NATO's introduction into the South Caucasus was adopted. That is, it turns out that it was at the NATO summit that a certain document related to the South Caucasus was adopted. At the same time, such a document is not mentioned anywhere. It is possible that in fact Velayati referred to the trilateral meeting, but he preferred to exclude Armenia from it, thus indicating that the latter has no legal personality and everything is decided for it. In any case, the signal for Yerevan from Tehran is not very good.

Ukraine-Russia

The Russian army's onslaught continues on the Ukrainian front, albeit without much success. The Russians have managed to make a relative, very slow advance in the former Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was, as always, very active this week. He gave an interview to German Bild, spoke at a video conference and also participated in the summit of the Trimorje countries in Vilnius. At all of these events, he again warned the West that without outside help, Ukraine will be defeated. In particular, he said that his country urgently needs Patriot air defence systems. In general, against the backdrop of the United States' self-disappointment, Europeans have been providing assistance to Ukraine. In particular, we have already talked about the initiative of the Czech Republic, which by now has found more than a million munitions, some of which have already been paid for by European countries and will soon be sent to Ukraine. One of the stumbling blocks is still Berlin's reluctance to provide Kyiv with long-range Taurus missiles.

Meanwhile, the promised consideration of the Ukraine aid package by the Republicans in the House of Representatives seems to have been postponed once again. House Speaker Mike Johnson held talks at the White House on the format of the future package, but it is reported that the parties failed to reach an agreement. I would like to remind you that the Republicans also want to include in the package a spending item on strengthening anti-migration measures.

Bern has announced that a high-level peace summit on the settlement of the military conflict in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland in mid-June without the participation of the Russian side. It has already become known that Beijing refused to send its delegation because it is not constructive to discuss the war without Russia. It is expected that Beijing's refusal will entail a failure to attract most of the countries of the Global South to the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has shared his thoughts on the situation in Ukraine at a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. He said that Moscow was ready to negotiate with Kyiv, but without imposing schemes, quote, "that have nothing to do with reality." Moreover, Putin and Lukashenko also said that the basis for future peace should be the Istanbul agreement initialed by both Moscow and Kyiv and thwarted by the West. Putin's comments about the strikes on Ukraine's energy system were interesting. The Russian president presented them as a response to the AFU attacks on Russian oil facilities, as well as a desire to de-energize Ukraine's military industry. At the same time, one could also conclude from Putin's words that he was ready to stop these strikes, as he did not insist on the demilitarization of Ukraine. Let me remind you that demilitarization was declared one of the main objectives of Russia's military campaign. It turns out that Putin is presenting this as some kind of compromise, meaning that if this proposal is rejected, Moscow is ready for even harsher strikes.

Middle East

A car carrying the three sons and three young grandchildren of Hamas politburo chairman Ismail Haniyeh was hit by an airstrike in the Gaza Strip. All of them were killed. At the same time, negotiations in Cairo on the exchange of hostages and prisoners have once again reached an impasse.

However, the main agenda in Israel in recent days has not been Gaza, but Iran. During the past week, Israel has been preparing for Tehran's retaliation for the liquidation in Damascus of seven IRGC officers, including General Zahedi. However, it was not only the Jewish state that was preparing. As expected, the White House declared that it would defend Israel from an Iranian strike, warned Tehran against attacking Israel, and even sent another carrier strike group to the Israeli coast. Tehran froze in confusion. It's risky not to respond, as it may damage its reputation, but responding could lead to a confrontation with the United States. There are rumours that the Iranians, through special communication channels, are asking the Israelis to allow them to launch a symbolic strike on some insignificant object on their territory.

Meanwhile, emboldened by Washington's support in the face of the Iranian threat, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Rafah would be stormed and that a date for the operation had already been set. Netanyahu did not disclose that date. I recall that shortly before that, Israel had withdrawn its troops from Gaza, retaining a presence only on the "bridge" separating the northern and central parts of the enclave. This was taken by many as a sign of the cessation of hostilities. Now it is becoming clear that Tel Aviv most likely used this step as a kind of goodwill gesture in the negotiation process, without giving up the possibility of re-entering the Strip. In addition, the IDF has not stopped conducting localized raids in the Strip. Curiously, however, Hamas has regained control of the territories in Khan Younis, where no Israeli forces remain, and municipal organizations have begun to reopen in the town itself. All of this suggests that Tel Aviv's claims that Hamas has been virtually annihilated are far from the truth.

Right now, Gaza is relatively quiet. It seems that all sides are frozen, waiting to see who will be the first to lose their nerve.

Caliber.Az