Does the Iran-Israel missile exchange mean a new war?
Mulling response

ANALYTICS  16 April 2024 - 09:12

On April 14, the Islamic Republic of Iran conducted massive missile and drone attacks against its arch-rival Israel. The attack came shortly after Israeli Air Forces earlier hit the Iranian embassy in Syria's capital, Damascus, killing two high-ranking Iranian military officers from the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Although Iran vowed a harsh response to Israel, many doubted Tehran would boost tensions and attack Israel directly in light of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Moreover, the US, the main ally of Israel, through Türkiye and Qatar, urged Tehran to abstain from striking Israel as it may trigger "a greater anti-Iranian response."

A few days after the embassy was hit, Tehran conducted a massive air attack comprising drones and hypersonic missiles to hit Israeli targets in major urban areas. According to reports, Iran fired more than a hundred missiles toward Israel. The attack included 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles, none of which entered Israeli territory, and at least 110 ballistic missiles, of which a small number reached Israel. Iran’s widely anticipated missile and drone attack was defeated with the orchestrated help of the US, UK, and Jordan, who, alongside the Israeli military, ensured that all but a handful of ballistic missiles were neutralized overnight.

Iran’s plan appears to have been to try to overwhelm Israel’s system of air defences with a complex attack of the type employed by Russia against Ukraine but on a much vaster scale. While the attack "saved Iran's image" as a powerful regional actor, it also raised questions about whether Iran is capable of continuing an air offensive against Israel in the long perspective, given its limited financial and military resources. The fact that the Iranian military quickly announced "the end of the response" to Israel hinted at the idea that Tehran is in no interest in prolonged escalation with Israel.

As such, US President Joe Biden cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “think carefully and strategically about the risk of escalation” as Israel weighs its response to a brazen Iranian attack that the Western partners fear could trigger a broader regional war. Two members of Israel’s three-man war cabinet made statements suggesting they were taking a longer-term view of the response to Iran's first-ever direct attack on Israeli soil. However, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had not made a formal decision.

Although Israel has not conducted a response attack on Iran, Tel Aviv will likely attempt to form a regional alliance against Iran to isolate it more as a deterrence factor. Jordan appeared to be the main ally of Israel and the US during the most recent attack on Iran by providing its airspace and soil to US and UK fighter jets, while countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait maintained a lower profile, though Riyadh provided the Western alliance with intelligence reports.

Regardless of the recent attacks' consequences, tensions in the Middle East rose to a critical level with the risks of spillover and further geopolitical turmoil. Israel's long-term military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip put its Western partners in hot water as the rising number of human casualties among Palestinians triggered mass protests and rallies in the West. For example, recently, the US has been pressing Tel Aviv to hold back in Rafah — sensing a potential humanitarian catastrophe in the city bordering Egypt where as many as 1.5 million people are sheltering — but the overnight assault is likely to harden the Israeli government’s stance on crushing Iran-backed Hamas.

Consequently, the main Iranian objective was to restore a degree of deterrence without provoking a wider regional conflict that would draw in the US and the UK. The fact that Tehran did not deploy its most powerful proxy, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, demonstrates its reluctance to sacrifice its strategic assets and add more fuel to the fire. Also, Tehran’s efforts to signal the US regarding its intentions to hit Israeli targets in advance also highlighted the latter’s intention to avoid direct military confrontation that may hamper the Islamic regime’s existence.

Caliber.Az