Russia-Ukraine war ruins USSR 2.0 project
Belarusian political analyst’s interview for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  04 May 2022 - 20:35

Caliber.Az had an interview with Deputy Director of the Belarus Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, Belarusian political analyst Yuri Tsarik.

The war in Ukraine has been the main event in the world for more than two months. How long will it last? Has Russia achieved the goals set on February 24, 2022 at this stage?

- The Russian Federation obviously and unambiguously failed to achieve the goals that it set at the beginning of the military campaign, despite the assistance of the Republic of Belarus. Belarus allowed the Russian troops to pass and attack Ukraine from the northern direction, which is the most vulnerable one for Kyiv. Russia failed despite Ukraine was in a difficult situation during the war because the US put pressure on Kyiv regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Despite all this, the Ukrainian side was able to defend its positions and, as a result, defeat the Russian side in the northern and northeastern directions and resist the enemy’s attacks in Donbas, in the eastern and southeastern directions. The only big achievement of the Russian side was Ukraine’s Kherson city. No hostilities were conducted there due to a number of objective reasons.

In other words, the goal of the so-called “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine was not achieved. The Russian side was forced to reformulate the goals of the military campaign because it was unsatisfactory. As we see, the goals are reformulated as the seizure of the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. 

We also see that a pseudo-referendum is being prepared in the Kherson region to annex this territory. However, even when the Russian side had an absolute overwhelming advantage, for example, in Ukraine’s Mariupol city, the hostilities have not been completed yet, and the Russian side has been unable to suppress the resistance of the Ukrainian troops. 

Taking this into account, the Russia-Ukraine war can last from several months to several years, and this will depend on a number of factors, first of all, whether the Russian leadership will announce mass mobilization due to personnel losses and to build up its potential for a further offensive operation against Ukraine.

We see that as of April 30, 2022, the Russian offensive operation was not successful even in Donbas, and it slowed down from the northern direction. Russia retains an offensive potential from the southern direction to Donbas in Ukraine’s Huliaipole region. There is also such information that an offensive operation is being prepared in the Kherson region in the direction of Mykolaiv city and Odessa along with the intensification of the situation in Transnistria. 

That is, the Russian side with available troops can continue the offensive operation for some time, however, it has no prospects. If there is no mass mobilization, the Russian army’s defence of all positions in Ukraine looks inevitable.
When this happens, the war will pass into another phase, Ukrainian troops will go on the offensive and then military actions can change quite quickly. Either Ukraine will be able to regain control over its previously lost territories within a few months or if the Russian side defends its positions more skillfully, the hostilities may last for years.

- You have mentioned Transnistria. There has been a real tension recently. What is the reason? Who benefits, and who loses, as a result of the thawing of this frozen conflict? 

- This frozen conflict has intensified in Moldova since April 20, 2022. This intensification was initiated by the Russian side and is aimed at opening another direction and thus diverting the Armed Forces of Ukraine from defence and a possible counteroffensive in Donbas, the Kherson region. 

Moreover, we heard the statement made by deputy commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation, who unexpectedly voiced such a goal as a result of the war as the creation of a land corridor from Donbas not only to Crimea, but also to Transnistria. Therefore, apparently, the Russian side initiates all these processes. 

In the short term, Russia's goals are clear and logical. In particular, there is an attempt to preempt a possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region when the Russian side wants to hold a pseudo-referendum there.
However, in the medium term, such an expansion of the conflict zone is completely unprofitable for Russia. Firstly, in case of an attack by Russian troops or Transnistrian Moldavian Republic’s units on Moldova, the latter may appeal to Romania for support. 

Accordingly, the prospect of NATO involvement appears, which will be an absolute disaster for Russia. On the other hand, similarly, the Moldovan side can appeal to Kyiv and then, by concentrating forces, the Ukrainian side will be able to defeat the Russian troops in Transnistria, by capturing numerous prisoners of war and thereby improving its positions both at the front and during the negotiation process.

- As you are our expert from Belarus, I would like to ask you the following question. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has recently said at a meeting with governor of Russia’s Voronezh region Alexander Gusev that other countries that used to be part of the USSR would like to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus. What countries does President Lukashenko mean? 

Lukashenko is eager to intensify integration with Russia and even expand the Union State because having fallen under Western sanctions, the Russian side has lost its power in relations with its closest allies, as well as with the Republic of Belarus, and was forced to make numerous concessions to some partners to avoid economic and other catastrophe.

As for the relations with Belarus, these concessions consist, firstly, of one-year deferment of all payments on Belarus debt to the Russian side. Secondly, Belarusian manufacturers may easily enter all segments of the Russian market. Moreover, oil and gas transactions are made in the Russian rubles, which Belarus sought for long ago. 

That is, Lukashenko's dream came true. The only problem is that Belarus has also lost access to Western markets, both as an exporter and as an importer. Of course, the expansion of the Belarusian share in the Russian market does not compensate for the losses that Belarus bears in other spheres. 

For example, the Belarusian export of potash fertilizers was ruined. India refused from the contract. It is impossible to implement the contract with Brazil due to restrictions in logistics. In general, we see that when anti-Russian sanctions were introduced in March 2022, despite the free positions in the Russian market, the Belarusian industrial production volume decreased, while the Belarusian GDP was negative.

In this regard, Lukashenko's enthusiasm for the development of the Union State seems to be absolutely unfounded and, in general, is nothing more than pro-Russian rhetoric.
The real prospect of integration in the post-Soviet area is very sad. In fact, we are entering a new period of disintegration of this area. This is obvious in the public statements made by the leadership of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan stated that it would not help Russia avoid Western sanctions. 

Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have approximately the same position with some clauses. Having unleashed an aggressive war against Ukraine, the Russian side remained isolated even in the post-Soviet area. 

It is clear that due to its enormous military and economic potential compared to other countries of the former USSR, Russia is able to impose its political and other decisions on a whole range of issues. 

Moreover, the Russian side is trying to draw its neighbors, primarily partner countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), into its policy of circumventing and overcoming sanctions. 

Of course, this does not correspond to the national interests of the corresponding countries and therefore, this policy does not have much prospects. Accordingly, there are no countries that are eager to join the Union State, except for the quasi-states such as Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

- What do the Belarus people think about the prospect of Belarus joining Russia? 

- The vast majority of the population of the Republic of Belarus even earlier, before the Russia-Ukraine war, and even now, opposes the country's entry into the Russian Federation. 

Approximately 60 percent of our citizens support the preservation of the Union State, although this dynamic may change as we begin to deal with the consequences of Russian aggression against Ukraine. However, the idea of Belarus joining the Russian Federation is not supported. 

Moreover, despite all specific geopolitical views, President Lukashenko is not eager to turn into a governor subordinate to the federal center.

- Nevertheless, "USSR 2.0" project has been recently mentioned more often among the Russian experts. Can this be implemented? How will it be implemented? 

- The "USSR 2.0" project after the beginning of the war in Ukraine is removed from the agenda. Firstly, it is possible to think about whether this project existed, whether it had supporters in the Russian elite, however, we understand that the Kremlin started the war against Ukraine by using imperial slogans. 

Secondly, of course, the barbaric war against Ukraine ruined brotherhood, common roots, destroyed the value of the entire common heritage that came out of the USSR. If earlier it was still possible to talk about something, then after February 24, 2022, all this definitely ended. Moreover, it ended when Russia was unable to achieve quick capitulation of Ukraine. That is, the Russian Federation has become not only a fratricide, but also a loser. 

Thirdly, it is important to understand that the oligarchic socio-economic model that exists in Russia will not change under the current leadership of the country. Therefore, there is no need to talk about any revival of the USSR in the socio-economic sense. 

In general, it is possible to say that Russia's attack on Ukraine was not forced. However, it buried any remnants of inertia in the post-Soviet area.

Caliber.Az