Nothing personal, just PKK
Finns and Swedes go cap in hand to Ankara

ANALYTICS  17 May 2022 - 21:00

Turkish President Erdoğan has harshly outlined Ankara's position on Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO: "Scandinavian countries have become a shelter for terrorist organizations."

Turkiye certainly has the moral right to such a position. Its main condition is to stop supporting Kurdish separatists, something Scandinavian candidates to the Alliance have long been "famous" for. The West does not want to give up such means of pressure on Turkiye, but Turkiye always has something to answer with. Erdoğan knows how to talk to the hypocrites who protest against the extermination of terrorists but ignore the murdered Turks on principle. "Sweden is an incubation centre for terrorist organizations. They bring terrorists to their parliaments, give them a platform, send out special invitations and even have terrorists in their parliaments. We cannot say 'yes' to joining NATO to those who have imposed sanctions against Turkiye," a quote from a recent statement by the Turkish head of state says.

For example, the Turkish Anadolu Agency reports that a "Third Consultation Forum" was held in Stockholm under the patronage of the Swedish Foreign Ministry with the participation of representatives of the PKK, the U.S. State Department, and the Italian Foreign Ministry. And now the Finns and Swedes hit the ground running to Turkiye to negotiate NATO membership. But Ankara's reaction was expected: "Swedish and Finnish delegations, don't come, don't bother." It's a classic example of an irritating game: probing your opponent, watching the reactions, analysing how far you can go. In general, this week looks to be an interesting one. Europe is just a tool in this game, it has no strong army, and let's call it the way we see it: NATO is not about the EU, NATO is about the USA. So one should not pay attention to what they say from the European capitals, it is better to listen to what they say from Washington.

The Turkish army is one of the strongest in the world, and Turkiye has a good memory. It remembers everything: sanctions against its military industry, support to Greece, and the Cyprus problem, the scandal with the F-35, and giving refuge to Kurdish terrorists (an example is Amina Kakabave, who joined the terrorists when she was 13 and now is a deputy of the Swedish parliament), and the anti-Turkish hysterics in the European parliaments, and the attempted military coup. That's why the West will get an adequate response if pressure on Turkiye intensifies. NATO will not collapse if it does or does not accept Sweden and Finland. Now is not the time because the war is raging right on Europe's border. If the military conflict escalates, the combat efficiency of the European armies, unlike the Turkish one, is doubtful. Sooner or later Sweden and Finland will be in NATO anyway, it's just a matter of price. Maybe Turkiye will strengthen its influence in Syria and Iraq, in the Black Sea region, who knows what concessions the EU and the USA can make to secure their northern flank from Russia.

How many hundreds of civilians and Turkish soldiers have been killed by PKK terrorists since 1984? The West doesn't care about that. The fact that the Western powers recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization does not oblige the West to do anything, and Turkiye is well aware of who supports the separatists. The fate of Amina Kakabave, mentioned above, is illustrative. She is a former terrorist, now a member of the Swedish parliament, who demanded that the PKK be excluded from the list of terrorist organizations or else threatened to cut off support to the government if it complied with Turkiye's demand.

Yes, the West is volatile. But it is always united against Turkiye. Geopolitical rivalry and Islamophobia are the only reasons. But the West cannot do without taking into account Turkey's interests, because it has something to siege its arrogant "allies" who understand allied relations in the spirit of profit. Did Sweden and Finland think that they could pay the price for supporting the PKK and imposing sanctions on Turkey's defence exports (starting from 2019) by opposing it on the issue of their membership in NATO? I don't know, but miscalculating the possible consequences of their actions is a direct responsibility of national elites.

Today, their membership in NATO is a matter of national security, because Russia's aggressive policy is becoming dangerous not only in the post-Soviet space, and it's quite hard to forecast what might happen in at least six months. It is clear that Western countries will never give up their "double standard" policy, which is an effective tool for advancing their interests. It's time for Turkiye to act, and I am sure Ankara will act correctly and in time. The West needs it no less than it needs the West, and that is not only opposition to Russian policy, but a bunch of interests to which it would be unwise and short-sighted to compromise. And the Turkish leader's seeming emotionality is a delicate calculation of a pragmatist who knows what, when, to whom and in what tone to speak.

Turkiye has every right to defend its national interests, and it is quite consistent in defending them. Erdoğan is a tough leader, and, as the recent past shows, he will never compromise the interests of his country. It is clear that a bidding process is going on behind the scenes. We may never know the bids, we can only guess how it will all end.

Caliber.Az