"Any NATO country could be next in line after Ukraine"
Valery Karbalevich for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  27 June 2022 - 17:13

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the world media have been periodically reporting on Russia's plans to use the territory and military facilities of Belarus as a springboard for more massive military operations on Ukrainian land. Given the ambitions of the Russian side, as well as the closest allied relations between Moscow and Minsk, many foreign political strategists considered this scenario quite probable. It was even assumed that Belarus would end up at the epicenter of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis against its wishes.

And to this day, such a development is not excluded. Thus, according to recent reports by Ukrainian news sources with reference to the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, the Russian side may try to draw Belarus into the military conflict through certain provocations, including hitting its infrastructure facilities and civilian population by infiltrating subversive groups. It is not ruled out that the Kremlin is planning to blow up residential buildings in Mozyr, Belarus, to force the Belarusian authorities to react.

The Belarusian political analyst and publicist, Ph.D. in history Valery Karbalevich shared his opinion with Caliber.Az about the likelihood of such a scenario.

From the territory of Belarus, Ukraine had been shelled since the very beginning of the war, since February 24, Karbalevich says. To this day, missile attacks are still taking place regularly, and Russian bombers take to the airspace from Belarusian airfields to strike Ukraine.

"Moreover, Russian troops also attacked Kyiv from the territory of Belarus, which already indicates that Minsk is very actively involved in this conflict. But in the sense that Russian troops are using exactly the territory of Belarus to attack Ukraine. There was also shelling of the Zhytomyr region the day before, and I think this is reliable information because Russian Iskander missile systems are not accidentally stationed on the border of Belarus with Ukraine.

As for the versions related to explosions and provocations through some subversive groups, I cannot say anything specific, it is reported by Ukrainian intelligence. I would not build a hypothesis and guess whether this is in the plans of the Russian side or not. But I am sure that if the political decision of the Belarusian leadership to involve the Belarusian Armed Forces in the war is taken, then it will not be a problem to find a reason for it. On the other hand, the Belarusian authorities themselves periodically announce that allegedly Ukrainian drones and sabotage groups have crossed the border of Belarus and that Poland is going to seize Western Ukraine, and they want to surround us, which we, they say, can not allow. That is, there are many pretexts for the outbreak of war, and it is not necessary to blow up something in or around the Mozyr region.

It is difficult to say how likely such a scenario is. But it is absolutely clear that Lukashenko does not want the country to get involved in the war, nor do the Belarusians themselves. About 95 per cent of the population does not want their country to participate in the war. There is a strong consensus between the authorities and the people on this issue. Both Lukashenko's opponents and his supporters, even the power structures do not want to get actively involved in the war with Ukraine. It can be assumed that Russia is pushing Belarus to do so, but there are no official facts to confirm this at the moment. If Russia's war with Ukraine is successful for Russia and Moscow wins, then the likelihood of the Belarusian army's involvement in it will increase. If Russia suffers a defeat, then it makes no sense to join the losing side," the Belarusian expert analyzed the situation.

In his view, at this stage of the war, the conflict between Russia and Lithuania poses a serious threat.

"Lithuania has restricted the transit of cargoes to the Kaliningrad region through its territory, citing the decision of the European Union, to which Russia has threatened a tough response. If we are talking about a military response, it can not take place without the participation of Belarus. In this case, the role of Belarus increases considerably, and it is possible that this issue will be one of the main points of discussion during the talks between Presidents Lukashenko and Putin in St. Petersburg. Russia's foreign policy logic is to raise the stakes, counting on the fact that the enemy will get scared and will not dare to strike. This was the logic behind Russia's war with Ukraine. Therefore, I do not exclude that Russia may try to break through the Suwalki corridor between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, counting on NATO not deciding to go to war because it threatens to turn the conflict into a nuclear war. This does not mean that Russia wants to escalate the war to the level of a world war; most likely, having taken the path, it has lost the ability to retreat, and the logic of conflict escalation pushes exactly to this solution. That is, it can happen that the war with Lithuania will turn out to be a certain acceptable option because all other options are even worse. Representatives of the NATO and US headquarters said that they would support Lithuania. But it is difficult to say how much this will cool the Kremlin's ambitions. So, in my opinion, there is a probability of such a scenario. A military response from NATO is the most likely, because after the war with Ukraine, the West came to the understanding that any concessions from Russia would increase the latter's appetite, and it is possible that any other NATO country could be next in line after Ukraine. Accordingly, the response to an attack on Lithuania by NATO is more likely than the other way around," Karbalevich concluded.

Caliber.Az