Iran and the atomic bomb: real or imaginary threat?
Expert insights

INTERVIEWS  28 April 2024 - 10:57

Iran is "weeks rather than months" away from possessing enough enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Raphael Grossi. According to him, Iran's uranium enrichment level has almost reached the level needed to build a nuclear weapon of concern.

However, Grossi added that it is still impossible to conclude that Iran already possesses such weapons. According to the IAEA chief, creating a functioning nuclear warhead requires many other things in addition to the production of enriched uranium, such as testing. Asked by a journalist whether Iran might have been effectively developing nuclear weapons without the IAEA knowing about it, Grossi said he could not speak about it because of a lack of information.

"More in weeks than in months" is very serious. And all the more so when it is stated by the planet's chief "nuclear" official. One cannot ignore the fact that the matter concerns the closest neighbour of Azerbaijan and that not so long ago, after the Israeli strike on the IRGC headquarters in Damascus, one of the MPs of the Iranian parliament suggested striking the Israeli embassy in Baku as a retaliation. There is no need to explain what Israel or Azerbaijan can expect in case Iran builds atomic weapons. But the question is whether the world can somehow prevent the creation of a nuclear missile in this country.

Foreign experts shared their thoughts on this issue with Caliber.Az.

As Israeli researcher on Iran and journalist Michael Borodkin stated, the world, of course, could take measures and convince Iran to abandon this project.

"We remember that the Iranian authorities decided to acquire nuclear weapons because they consider these weapons a guarantee of their survival. If the world could convince Tehran that in fact the pursuit of nuclear weapons will inevitably lead to its downfall, for example, by imposing the toughest sanctions, backed by the threat of imminent use of force for failure to comply with the terms of the ultimatum, while simultaneously demonstrating willingness to lift these sanctions completely if Iran rolls back its military program, it could at least provide a reprieve," the researcher believes.

But the world did not initially take this threat seriously, he notes at the same time.

"There was no unanimity of opinion about the Iranian nuclear program either among Western countries, much less in Russia and China, and it is a common firm position that is required to solve this problem. This is not possible now," the expert on Iran believes.

Amir Mohammadi Chahaki, an Iranian political scientist and specialist in Russian-Iranian relations, noted that after several weeks of escalation of tension between Iran and Israel, a topic of discussion arose inside and outside the Islamic Republic of Iran - whether the Islamic Republic intends to change its tactics and strategy of defence against external enemies by developing nuclear bomb technology.

"But this, as they say, is just a version. Nothing new has happened to allow one to claim that the spiritual leader, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRI leadership have changed their tactics of renouncing nuclear weapons.

Of course, Iran has a certain amount of enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon, which is close to the possibility of an atomic bomb. But this is not news. This has been known for a long time, with Tehran, I think, almost openly stating that it will not abide by the protocol of the nuclear deal because America has withdrawn from the agreement. It's just that the IAEA director general is warning. At the same time, he says that the available information does not guarantee that Iran already has the relevant determination or already has a bomb," Chahaki said.

He doesn't think Grossi's words should be taken seriously.

"By the way, it's clear that, let's say, in Azerbaijan they look at it differently and take it all as a threat. But it is necessary to have some real approach. On April 1, Israel demonstrated non-compliance with international conventions and launched a direct strike on the Iranian consular section in Damascus, which is considered part of the territory of another state. Of course, the problems between Iran and Israel have been going on for years. But Tehran's response to this strike, I think, was predictable. Although Israel did not expect exactly such a response. And now Tel Aviv and Tehran are clearly showing that they do not want to develop the conflict.

And, as Grossi said, creating an atomic bomb is not easy. It has to be tested first. And if that happens, Iran's standing in the eyes of the international community will be greatly diminished. There will be more isolation. So I don't think that Tehran has now adopted a clear course to build a nuclear bomb," the political scientist said.

He also added that if the IAEA director says he doesn't have absolutely comprehensive information about Iran's plans, that doesn't mean that the Mossad, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia or Secret Intelligence Service of the UK (MI6) don't have such information.

"We understand that all the security services in the Western world are very closely monitoring any actions of a military nature inside Iran. There are spy networks, there are technological capabilities. I think in this case we are faced with another manifestation of propaganda. Tehran realizes that a decision to continue or begin military development of nuclear technology would be a very adventurous one. So far, we can say that there is no such threat and nothing has changed inside the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran has officially announced that it will not build a nuclear bomb, and I think this provision is still in force," Chahaki said.

Caliber.Az