Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks in Abu Dhabi  and Trump’s announcement on Russia Caliber.Az weekly review

The Caliber.Az editorial team presents a new episode of the programme “Events” with Murad Abiyev, which highlights the week’s top stories related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan–Armenia

The key event of the outgoing week was, without a doubt, the bilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the capital of the United Arab Emirates — Abu Dhabi.

The meeting, which experts and journalists have described as historic, lasted over four hours. The composition of the delegations was equally notable, including deputy prime ministers overseeing border delimitation and demarcation issues, foreign ministers, the assistant to the Azerbaijani president, the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, and special representatives. These details suggest that the parties held in-depth discussions on all matters related to the settlement process.

Following the meeting, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the parties reaffirmed the importance of bilateral negotiations, agreed to continue work on border delimitation, and committed to maintaining bilateral dialogue and confidence-building measures between the two countries.

Moreover, according to information obtained by Caliber.Az, the sides also agreed, among other things, to begin preparations for the initialling of a peace agreement. And this, perhaps, deserves closer attention.

It should be noted that initialling is the preliminary signing of a document by authorised representatives to confirm the final version of the text. It indicates that the text has been agreed upon and is not subject to further changes prior to official signing.

In theory and practice, agreements can be signed without any prior initialling. However, the parties have chosen to undertake this symbolic step — one that is important for both sides and for the peace process as a whole.

As is well known, before signing a peace agreement with Yerevan, Baku insists on Armenia meeting two preconditions. First, the signing of a joint statement on the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. Second—and most importantly—amending the Armenian Constitution to remove provisions containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

For various reasons, these two conditions are unlikely to be fulfilled in the immediate future. Thus, by agreeing to the initialling of the agreement, Azerbaijan is demonstrating a constructive attitude and a genuine will for peace—both to Armenia and to external actors.

According to Armenian media, a referendum on constitutional reform is scheduled for 2026. The Armenian public holds mixed views on this issue. It must be persuaded to support the reforms through strong, convincing arguments. The initialling of the peace agreement will serve as an important interim result—something the Armenian Prime Minister can present to society as a milestone on the road to peace: in other words, “peace is just around the corner,” or the elimination of the risk of renewed war. For that, as the well-known song goes, “one would give everything.” Although this is, of course, an exaggeration. In reality, very little needs to be given—just a renunciation of territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

Considering that the constitutional referendum will take place only if Pashinyan wins the next parliamentary elections, the Prime Minister is essentially telling the public: “Vote for me—and peace will be finalised.” In short, the initialling of the agreement will create a highly favourable backdrop for the Armenian public to recognise both the need to vote for Pashinyan and to support constitutional changes in the referendum.

Today, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa arrived in Azerbaijan on an official visit. As of the time this article was published, details were not yet available, but we will certainly cover this visit in our future articles.

Ukraine – Russia

Following weeks of intensified positional fighting along the Russia–Ukraine front, a relative lull has set in—if one discounts the continued mass strikes by Russian forces on Ukrainian infrastructure. Diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict are also approaching a new critical juncture. After an unproductive phone call between Trump and Putin, the U.S. president stated that he was “disappointed with Moscow” and, as a final twist, announced he would make an important statement regarding Russia on July 15.

Meanwhile, in Kuala Lumpur, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Following the talks, Rubio noted that the Russian side had presented a “new proposal.” When Lavrov was asked to clarify the nature of this proposal, he replied using Trump’s own words: “Expect new surprises.”

While the world speculates about the content of the Russian proposal and Trump’s upcoming statement, a scandalous revelation about the American president, leaked by CNN, has begun circulating in the global media. Specifically, an alleged audio recording has surfaced, reportedly from Trump’s 2024 election campaign. In it, Trump is said to have told his donors that he once threatened to bomb Moscow and Beijing—Moscow in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing in case of a military operation against Taiwan.

If Trump indeed issued such threats to Putin and Xi, this lends more credibility to the existence of a real, albeit understated, alliance between Moscow and Beijing. In fact, subtle signals of this alliance have emerged. Just last week, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs that Beijing cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine, according to sources cited by the South China Morning Post.

China has not supplied weapons to Russia so far, but this message clearly signals to Moscow that it should not be overly concerned about U.S. sanctions or other retaliatory measures. Even more intriguing, Beijing might be warning Moscow not to compromise with Washington. Perhaps that very compromise is what Trump intends to announce on July 15? In any case, if that’s true, we won’t have to wait much longer.

Middle East

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington for a four-day stay, making every effort to highlight the strength of the alliance between the two leaders—a partnership reinforced by their recent joint strikes on Iran. This alliance, they suggest, is reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.

However, the situation is not as rosy as it may appear. After weeks of back-and-forth, Trump himself has now admitted that Iran’s nuclear programme has not been destroyed. Israel has also acknowledged that Iran has managed to retain enriched uranium. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have not ruled out further strikes on Iran should it remain uncooperative.

Still, one gets the feeling that even if Iran had no enriched uranium left, someone would have to invent it. The very existence of a nuclear programme serves as a convenient pretext for keeping the country—and its ruling regime—under pressure.

The U.S. administration is now laying the groundwork for a new round of talks on a potential nuclear deal. The president’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to meet with Iranian representatives in Oslo, Norway, “within the week.”

Meanwhile, little progress has been made on the deal with Hamas, with negotiations currently underway in Doha. The main sticking point remains deep-rooted disagreements—chiefly concerning the mutual presence in Gaza.

The most eye-catching moment of the visit came when the Israeli prime minister nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. During a dinner at the White House, Netanyahu handed Trump a copy of the nomination letter submitted to the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

The symbolism behind this gesture is clear: Israel fully supports all U.S. efforts to bring peace to the world. An American version of peace, of course.