"The Kremlin’s goal is to escalate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed serious concern about the attacks on the Armenian Church. “The Church has always been one of the key pillars of Armenian society, and we would very much not want it to be subjected to unjustified attacks without any serious grounds. We are interested in this situation being resolved as soon as possible based on the Constitution of Armenia, with full respect for the rights of believers, as well as other human rights,” Lavrov told journalists following a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) Foreign Ministers.

At a joint press conference in Yerevan with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan quickly responded to Lavrov’s statement, calling on him not to interfere in Armenia’s internal affairs.

“Before the press conference, I managed to read the comment of my favourite colleague — Lavrov. Mr. Lavrov’s information is incomplete and inaccurate. If I’m not mistaken, he used the phrase ‘the authorities’ struggle against the church.’ Lavrov’s information does not correspond to reality — there is no struggle by the authorities against the church in Armenia. What he means implies the involvement of several clergymen in political activities,” Mirzoyan said.

The minister noted that, according to law enforcement agencies, this concerns their participation in preparing or initiating an illegal coup.

“This is a legal process and an internal matter of the Republic of Armenia. It would be better if Lavrov did not interfere in the internal affairs of the RA,” he emphasised, adding that he gives similar advice to Russian deputies and media.

Mirzoyan also noted that representatives of Russia should show more respect for Armenia’s sovereignty and refrain from attempts to interfere.

Why is Moscow commenting on a situation that seemingly falls outside its competence? What relevance does the Russian Foreign Ministry have to the relations between the Armenian Church and the Armenian government? Perhaps it is because the actions of some Armenian church hierarchs bear the shadow of Moscow itself?

European experts shared their opinions on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Polish political scientist, Caucasus expert, and Doctor of Sciences at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the University of Warsaw, Konrad Zasztowt, believes that the connections between the Catholicos and a number of clergymen of the Armenian Apostolic Church with Moscow are quite obvious.

“This was not a problem for the Armenian authorities until Prime Minister Pashinyan decided to radically change the country’s foreign policy course towards rapprochement with the European Union and the United States and to withdraw (or freeze his participation — Editor’s note) from the Russia-created structure — the CSTO. It can now be said that Moscow is trying to use its supporters in Armenia, such as the oligarch Karapetyan or some clergymen who have recently become involved in politics,” Zasztowt stated.

He reminded that, according to Armenian authorities, these individuals even planned a coup d’état and seizure of power.

“I don’t know to what extent this corresponds to reality, but it is obvious that Russia supports the actions of this group. This support is evident in the narratives of Kremlin propaganda in recent days. It cannot be ruled out that the actions of these people are being coordinated directly from Moscow.

The Kremlin’s second goal — besides destabilising the situation and changing the government — is to escalate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Considering the revanchist rhetoric of these clergymen, it can be assumed that if they come to power, a new escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is possible. This is Moscow’s main goal, which once again seeks to use the principle of ‘divide and rule’ to exert influence over the countries of the South Caucasus,” the expert concluded.

Dr. Stefan Meister, head of the Program for International Order and Democracy at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), wonders why Pashinyan is openly confronting the leadership of the Armenian Apostolic Church now, and why Russia is reacting so loudly.

“Pashinyan’s main political priority right now is the upcoming parliamentary elections next year. He is under strong pressure because he has been unable to achieve a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

In turn, Russia is doing everything to weaken Pashinyan’s party. To this end, it will use the Armenian Church, which is closely connected to Moscow. Even Catholicos Garegin himself has ties to Russia, and his brother heads the church’s representation in Moscow,” the expert explains.

In his view, Pashinyan is trying to undermine the reputation of the Armenian Apostolic Church, portraying it as a corrupt institution losing its authority.

“These statements also fit into the narrative where Russia and Lavrov act as official ‘defenders of traditional values,’ and the church serves as their representative in various countries.

For Moscow, the Armenian Church remains an important tool of influence over Armenia’s domestic politics, especially given that pro-Russian politicians have little real chance of winning elections. I think this is exactly why Lavrov makes such statements: to protect the Armenian Apostolic Church, with which they have close ties, and at the same time to increase tension in Armenian politics and society. But, to be honest, I don’t think this will work — the church has long since lost its former significance for the majority of Armenians,” Dr. Meister concluded.