Türkiye–EU: Erdoğan again reminds of the “old debt” Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Ankara has issued a statement reaffirming Türkiye’s firm insistence on revisiting the issue of the country’s accession to the European Union. As President of the Republic Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, Türkiye expects the immediate removal of political obstacles hindering its European integration.

“Negotiations on Türkiye’s accession to the EU should not be delayed by even a single day — they must be revived and pushed forward without hesitation. These developments should take place now. We tell all our counterparts in the EU that we remain firmly committed to our goal of full membership in the Union. If the EU approaches this matter with strategic foresight, there will be no obstacles preventing immediate action. The political barriers against Türkiye must be lifted urgently. We expect EU countries to maintain relations [with Türkiye] on a fair and equal basis,” Erdoğan said.

The President also stressed that Türkiye’s accession to the EU is a necessity dictated by the situation in Europe and its periphery. “If we consider developments in Europe and around it, as well as internal disagreements within the EU, the Union’s need for a dynamic, problem-solving member like Türkiye becomes clear. As I have said before, Türkiye is the last exit before the bridge for the European Union. The world is changing, and Europe has already changed. Breaking free from outdated and obsessive political notions could become the step that allows the EU to enter a new era. As Türkiye, we are ready for full membership in the EU.”

Leading analysts shared their views with Caliber.Az on the prospects and potential consequences of Türkiye’s accession to the EU.

Political Scientist Professor Toghrul Ismayil of Ankara University noted that the Turkish President’s call for the “immediate removal of political barriers” on the path to EU membership was unexpected, yet not accidental, given the long-stalled dialogue between Ankara and Brussels.

“This kind of rhetoric—voiced at such a high level and in such a direct manner for the first time in a long while—raises two key questions: What would the EU gain from Türkiye’s accession? And how likely is it that the EU will respond to this appeal?

The potential benefit for the EU lies in Türkiye being a ‘strategic anchor’ in an unstable world. Geopolitically, Türkiye is a bridge between Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea region. At a time when Europe is increasingly facing security challenges, instability along its southern borders, and competition among global power centres, Türkiye could act as a stabilising force.

Among the key advantages the EU would gain from integrating Türkiye is its solid geopolitical position. Türkiye remains a NATO member and possesses one of the alliance’s largest armies. Its contribution to security in the Black Sea region, migration management, counterterrorism, and Balkan stability is hard to overstate.

The economic aspect is also significant. The Turkish economy is one of the largest among developing countries. Despite existing structural issues, its integration into the EU market would expand the economic area by over 80 million people and strengthen logistical connectivity with the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

Furthermore, Türkiye is a crucial transit hub for energy supplies—gas and oil—from Azerbaijan, Iran, Central Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe, a role that has grown in importance since the reduction of Russian energy deliveries.

Finally, as a secular Muslim-majority country with well-developed state institutions, Türkiye could serve as a bridge between Europe and the Islamic world, helping to ease cultural frictions,” the professor outlined as Türkiye’s main advantages for Europe.

Nevertheless, such a sharp statement from Ankara is unlikely to provoke a strong reaction in European capitals, Ismayil believes. “There are both formal and political reasons for that.

Negotiations on Türkiye's accession to the EU were effectively frozen in 2016, following the attempted coup in the country. Moreover, there is no internal consensus within the EU on further enlargement, especially after Brexit.

A significant part of the European political establishment continues to perceive Türkiye as an 'alien body' due to its cultural, religious, and political characteristics. Stereotypes and populist sentiments also play a role here.

For many years, both sides have acted more out of pragmatism and frustration than mutual trust and strategic partnership. The EU accuses Türkiye of authoritarianism, while Ankara points to double standards and hypocrisy.

However, given the situation in Ukraine, migration pressure, instability on the southern borders, and China’s growing influence in Central Asia, Brussels should seriously reconsider its strategic priorities. As Erdoğan put it, Türkiye could be 'the last exit before the bridge'—but only if both sides are willing to change not just their rhetoric, but their strategic mindset.

For now, this statement appears more symbolic—a message directed at the domestic audience (demonstrating resolve and diplomatic ambition), as well as to the outside world—a reminder that Türkiye remains on the European chessboard. And if the EU remains inactive, Türkiye will increasingly turn to the East, the South, and the Caucasus in search of alternatives to the European vector," the expert noted.

Azerbaijani MP and political analyst Rasim Musabayov, in turn, considers Türkiye’s demands to be entirely justified.

“When Bulgaria and Romania were admitted to the European Union, their level of economic development was significantly lower than that of Türkiye. Even today, in terms of basic indicators, they lag behind. Türkiye has carried out large-scale reforms in various sectors. And yet, I believe that Türkiye will not be accepted into the EU. The reason is simple — it is too big.

The accession of small countries does not alter the balance of power within the EU, but a nearly 90-million-strong Türkiye would immediately begin to claim a place in the ruling triumvirate. Currently, that consists of France and Germany, with Italy to a lesser extent. Moreover, a significant portion of the EU's subsidies and financial support would have to go to Türkiye — something the EU is not financially prepared for.

It is also important to remember that seats in the European Parliament are allocated based on the population of member states. Türkiye would have one of the largest factions, which would significantly affect the political configuration within the EU.

And one cannot ignore the fact that Türkiye is a Muslim country, whereas the EU remains, to a large extent, a 'Christian club.' Prejudices and fears in this regard are extremely strong, and accession requires the consensus of all member states. That is why I do not expect a positive response from the European Union. It will all come down to the same old refrain about the need for reforms, respect for human rights, and so on — all of which will simply result in the issue being postponed indefinitely,” the MP stressed.

At the same time, he added, European countries today find themselves in a situation where the United States is gradually stepping back from Europe.

“Ensuring the security of EU countries — most of which are NATO members — without Türkiye’s involvement will be difficult, if not impossible. Therefore, we are likely to hear reassuring statements from Brussels, and perhaps even see some practical steps — economic support, expanded visa-free travel for Turkish citizens, trade preferences. However, full membership should not be expected in the near future,” Musabayov concluded.