EU without leadership and without direction Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

“If the European Union fails to respect the sovereign policies, traditions, and historical roots of its member states, it could fall apart,” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said while speaking at a plenary session of the country’s parliament.

Fico was commenting on the new US National Security Strategy, which, according to him, states that the EU is abandoning its core values and losing its leadership. He said he agrees with this assessment.

“Should we be angry at the US vice president for saying that the European Union is completely turning its back on its traditions? No—he is absolutely right. If the EU continues down this path and does not respect sovereign policies, traditions, and historical roots, it will collapse. And if it is destined to collapse, then let it collapse,” Fico said.

According to him, Slovakia intends to firmly defend its own position, traditional values, and the principle of “one plus one equals two,” referring to the constitutional amendment enshrining the existence of two sexes in the country’s fundamental law. At the same time, Fico emphasised that, in his view, the new US National Security Strategy is precisely based on a values-driven approach.

“This is a completely new perspective of the United States on Europe and the European Union. These documents repeatedly state that the EU is abandoning its core values, lacks real leadership, and is losing ground on the international stage,” the prime minister noted.

He added that this is exactly the viewpoint “we prefer in the long term.” According to him, the European Union no longer possesses the level of leadership it once had and is gradually losing its influence in the world.

Earlier, the United States unveiled its new National Security Strategy, which provoked a shocked reaction in the European Union. The document effectively announced Washington’s abandonment of the previous model of transatlantic partnership with Europe. Moreover, the strategy asserts that the EU faces not only economic decline but also the risk of losing its civilisational identity due to misguided development priorities.

What exactly, and under what circumstances, explains Robert Fico’s harsh stance towards the European Union, as well as that of the current US leadership? Is it truly possible that disregarding traditional values and the right of member states to pursue sovereign policies could eventually lead to the collapse of the European Union?

Renowned foreign experts shared their assessments of these developments with Caliber.Az.

American analyst and University of Illinois professor Richard Tempest recalled the famous remark by US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who once asked: “Who do I call if I want to talk to Europe?”

“Half a century later, the situation remains much the same—if anything, it has even worsened. Fico is just one of the 27 national leaders of the EU. Meanwhile, the German chancellor and the French president, once considered ‘first among equals,’ have lost their former influence. Will the European Union collapse if it abandons so-called traditional values? Most likely not. Although the organisation is in a prolonged, slow-moving crisis, several economic and geopolitical factors still work in its favour.

For example, Viktor Orbán’s clientelist administration in Hungary is effectively subsidised by the European Union: without the financial flows from Brussels, the ruling Fidesz party—which redistributes these funds among its supporting social groups—would hardly have been able to remain in power over the past 15 years.

The new National Security Strategy recently published by the United States is a document more cultural than geostrategic in nature. However, an increasing majority of Western voters support several of the principles championed by Fico and Orbán—most notably, limiting uncontrolled immigration from Global South countries and rejecting the gender policies promoted by progressive elites.

Will the EU collapse? Most likely not. It will continue to exist, creaking and resisting, while gradually adapting to the new populist currents,” Tempest concluded.

A different perspective is offered by German political scientist Alexander Rahr, professor at the Institute for International Politics WeltTrends (Potsdam). In his view, in 2026–2027, the European Union could face serious shocks and deep transformations—potentially even leading to its dissolution.

“The idea of a supranational superstate within the EU has proven unfeasible. The future of Europe is either a return to the model of a common economic market, as the EU was during the Cold War, or its division into a so-called ‘core’ Europe (Kerneuropa) and the remaining, peripheral part of the continent. It can be predicted with a high degree of confidence that the Euro-bureaucracy in Brussels will lose its influence in the near future, and power will once again shift in favour of sovereign states, which will prioritise national interests over the ‘common liberal values’ currently promoted by Brussels,” the expert argues.

According to Rahr, Europe is unlikely to become an independent actor on the international stage, as there is no genuine unity within the EU. Many member states will pursue their own economic and alliance policies: some with the United States, others with China or Russia.

“The European Union, as we know it, cannot exist outside the framework of the transatlantic project. And the transatlantic ties, as we can see, are literally falling apart before our eyes,” Rahr concluded.